VALUE CLOUD OVER BLACK CAVIAR: ‘MASSIVE’ 13.0 ON BETDAQ: Daqman feels obliged to nap wonder mare Black Caviar (pictured) on Royal Ascot’s final day ‘for the sake of his grandchildren’ but rates Betdaq offers of 13.0 about one of her dangers as ‘massive’.
TREBLE CHANCE AFTER BIG WINNERS IN THE WEEK: As always, Daqman closes a big meeting with final-fling trebles, after Royal Ascot winners this week at 20-1, 11-1, 9-1, 17-2, 15-2, 6-1 and 4-1. He had an attack of seconditis yesterday, notably feeling the pain from Jamesie (2nd 16-1) and Starscope (2nd 11-1).
If my final-fling Royal Ascot treble wins today, I shall buy a racehorse. My spec is that it must be able to travel 10,500 miles from Australia to England without moving a muscle and run over less than one mile at least 21 times without seeing another horse.
I shall call it Dark Roe, on the grounds that no horse is coloured black (it’s unlucky to use that word) and I can’t afford caviar.
In any case, someone else has thought of the name Black Caviar and they look like adding to her £3,630,401 earnings and 11 Group-1s in the Diamond Jubilee today.
You can back ‘Black’ individually – ‘buying money’ they call it – or you can lay against her. I’ve come through laying the superstars this week by the skin of my teeth after Fame And Glory got stuffed and put me marginally in front. So no more of that.
I shall nap Black Caviar for my grandchildren. It will earn me few plaudits from punters, but I don’t want to look down on the grandkids and hear them say: “Grandad couldn’t have been much of a tipster; he didn’t even nap Black Caviar.’
What I will try to do for the punter is find some big-odds BETDAQ value elsewhere and put Black Caviar in a final-fling Royal Ascot treble. Three winners not 21 is all I ask; and the three yards from this breakfast table to the computer in my office to call up the Daq is all I wish to travel; I leave 10,500 miles to the supreme equine athlete of her generation, both hemispheres.
Meanwhile, on this dream day for world racing, I’m even working on a name for Dark Roe’s sister, my second racehorse, sometime in the future in days when rain might stop in June. I think I shall call her Roes Of Summer.
But what’s this? Snap out of your dream time, Daqman: there’s real value on the Daq against Black Caviar! Let’s take the meeting race by race, and see what you think:
2.30 ROYAL ASCOT (Chesham Stakes) Maybe was only the second filly to win this in the last decade and, of the seven who attack the colts today, only Lovely Pass had been given a second glance by BETDAQ backers this morning.
It’s 34.0 the fillies bar Lovely Pass, who is trading 10.0 as I write, which is short enough, since she has to prove that her firm-ground Lingfield win can be bettered on today’s soft surface. Her sire, Raven’s Pass, was a fast-ground horse.
Rain changes the picture for some of the seven colts; the market says I can dismiss the only gelding, The Sixties, drifted like a lonely dog on a raft out to 88.0.
Haafhds do well enough on the soft – Pasaka Boy, Hillbilly Boy – but these two are also unwanted in the market, as is Zanetto.
Chilworth Icon’s recent form has been let down this week and St Paul De Vence’s yard hasn’t had a juvenile winner from 17 starters this season.
In seemingly a three-horse race, I couldn’t have a Street Cry (Jalaa) on today’s surface; though Jalaa won with ‘cut’ at Leicester, it was a modest event.
New Approach has had such a brilliant week with his youngsters (Dawn Approach and Newfangled) that I can’t resist the 7.0 Tha’ir under a rejuvenated Frankie Dettori, with a saver on Move To Strike, whose yard won Tuesday’s Coventry.
3.05 ROYAL ASCOT (Hardwicke Stakes): Sir Michael Stoute’s season was lifted out of the doldrums yesterday with Estimate a timely winner for The Queen. Excellent stroke, sir (Michael is a cricket man)!
The Hardwicke is one of Stoute’s favourite races. He’s won it three times in six years, notably with the dramatic improver, Harbinger, last season.
Can anyone stop him taking this Group-2 again with Sea Moon (not ground dependent)? The answer could be a Group-1 winner, the only one in the field: the Melbourne Cup winner, Dunaden.
Dunaden had to give weight away – as a penalty for that Group 1 – when just behind Quest For Peace and Aiken in his latest races. But he meets them at levels today in conditions that will suit.
Memphis Tennesee has won only a Group 3, and has failed at higher level, if you can call fourth in the Epsom Derby and third in the Curragh version ‘failure.’ He also likes it soft.
If this were a race of these three stars, I would back two and save stakes on the other. But, though he’s worse off here with Dunaden, Aiken cannot be left out.
Forget at your peril how John Gosden improved his runners to win yesterday, and Aiken is a massive improver in his own right: only a year ago, he was winning class-4 handicaps.
Aiken looked nothing if not a lion at Chantilly when he beat Dunaden, tearing the heart out of the opposition from the front, then producing another burst to rally and regain the lead when headed.
Memphis Tennessee has led on all three occasions of his two Derby defeats and hisOrmonde Stakes win, and his heart could well be broken by Aiken today, if the Gosden animal steps up another 4lb (on official ratings). I go Aiken, saver Sea Moon.
3.45 ROYAL ASCOT (Diamond Jubilee Stakes): And Dark Roe has gone clear! Sorry, I mean Black Caviar. I’m getting ahead of myself.
Surely, if she is fit and well – no reason to doubt it- nothing will be getting ahead of Black Caviar. But ‘without the favourite’? Where’s the place value in a field in which bookmakers go 25-1 bar three and the BETDAQ offers are 25-1 bar two (and 66-1 bar three).
The lonely dog on a raft this morning, the one of the front three Betdaq punters don’t want, is Society Rock, 10-1 in the offices but offered at 25.0 as I write.
That leaves Moonlight Cloud, 5-1 and 6-1 with bookmakers, but a massive 13.0 on BETDAQ this morning, as I write.
For a horse so highly regarded, who has been to Ascot (hampered 5th in Champion Sprint in October) and has the form for this race – hammered last year’s winner Society Rock on soft last August – that offer is the sun coming from behind a cloud.
That’s tremendous value, Black Caviar or no Black Caviar. And in answer to my critics who say I want it both ways: you’re darned right I do, and clearly that’s what I can get on the Daq!
4.25 ROYAL ASCOT (Wokingham Stakes): As one racing wag once told me: if you want to back the Wokingham winner, narrow the 29 runners down to 28, and then back the other one.
I think we can improve on that by deleting the middle draw (only one winner from 12 between stalls 11 and 23) and the older horses (only one winner from 113 runners aged six and over).
We have 16 left, but just one horse has won in our survey with more than 9st 6lb and, though it has only a 13lb range, the handicap is likely to favour lighter weights on soft ground.
I can’t have a Ripon specialist (Pepper Lane) or a maiden-only winner (King Of Jazz, Pabusar), and Andrew Balding has been out of form this week; in any case, Desert Law and Dungannon have mountains to climb with Colonel Mak and Maarek. Joe Packet is only class 3 and New Planet has disappointed since his juvenile days.
So my short list on the stats is Gordon Lord Byron (21.0 on BETDAQ), Scarf (19.5), Gramercy (26.0 but Johnny Murtagh has won this race three times), Seal Rock (33.0) and the favourite, Lightning Cloud.
Gramercy was fifth in the race last year (the bridesmaid Waffle second and Colonel Mak behind) when making his seasonal reappearance. Will strip fitter this time after a run back.
Gordon Lord Byron dwelt when beaten by Maarek at Naas and, with Richard Hughes taking over, is a sound each-way bet.
Seal Rock isn’t wanted this morning, but the Australian runner, Scarf, will appreciate the strong pace. Lightning Cloud is the stakes saver.
5.00 ROYAL ASCOT (Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap): How much will the Gosden horse, Camborne improve? Most of his have toppered their ratings at Ascot. Though he has an ugly head carriage (Camborne not Gosden), he cannot be discounted.
Anatolian came within an ace of a big win for me at 10-1 when touched off at Neewmarket and, as a Pivotal, should love today’s ground.
Jon Hammond owes me nothing: I had a huge punt when he won the Wokingham with Ratio in 2003, and another rare raider, Hammerfest, could be the main danger to Anatolian.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.3pts win THA’IR and 1.9pts win (stakes saver) MOVE TO STRIKE (2.30 Royal Ascot)
BET 4.6pts win AIKEN and 1.4pts win (stakes saver) SEA MOON (3.05 Royal Ascot)
BET 1.6pts win and place MOONLIGHT CLOUD (3.45 Royal Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 1.6pts win and place SCARF, 1.5pts win and place GORDON LORD BYRON, 1.2pts win and place GRAMERCY, and 1.1pts win (stakes saver) LIGHTNING CLOUD (4.25 Royal Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.75pts win HAMMERFEST, 2.5pts win ANATOLIAN and 1pt win (stakes saver) CAMBORNE (5.00 Royal Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles Tha’ir and Move To Strike (2.30 Royal Ascot) with Black Caviar (nap, 3.45 Royal Ascot) and with Hammerfest and Anatolian (5.00 Royal Ascot).
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated for jackpot-size returns) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
* Points are what you make them: if you bet in tenners, then 4pts win is £40; 3.2pts win is £32 (in fivers, those stakes would be £20 and £16). Daqman bets to a level return so that you can easily assess his tipping ability.
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