11.0 DREAM TICKET TO THE KING GEORGE: Daqman rates Sea Moon, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, as the main home hope for the King George, but reckons an 11.0 BETDAQ offer on an overseas raider is the best value in the race.
OH NOSE, YOUR LADYSHIP! Daqman is looking for some recompense from the Stoute team, after yesterday’s jackpot bet on Ladyship (2nd 5-1, ‘a gift at 7.6’ on BETDAQ) saw her in front before and after the post, mugged on the line by a nose after trading at 1.1 in running.
Betdaq gives you the King George bonus. A superb punter-friendly 102% book of offers this morning, despite the competitive international field, meant that your bet is running on its true merits, price wise, with runners paying back almost as much as invested.
The horses have come from Japan, Germany, Ireland and France. They’re winners of the Arc, the Breeders Cup, the Melbourne Cup, Hong Kong Vase, French and Japanese Derbys.
But the betting winners already today are Betdaq punters. Even in small fields in the last four years, the King George overround at SP has twice been 116% (in 2008 and 2009), with the bookies taking £16 extra each time they gave you the privilege of betting £100 with them.
1.35 Ascot: Sarah Brotherton landed this column a 12-1 treat on Thursday (Epsom Salts) and her ride here, Orpsie Boy, won’t be far away. Sarah is out on her own for winners since her nearest rivals turned professional.
There are some ‘names’ against her here, though Nina Carberry hasn’t had a winner on the Flat (turf) in this country since 2005, and Katie Walsh has blanked eight times since one runner one winner in 2008. Emma Jones has scored only once since 2009.
But (there’s always a ‘but’, isn’t there), low numbers were a big help on the straight course yesterday and Ms Brotherton has to negotiate most of the field from a wide stall. BETDAQ offers of 20.0 this morning allowed for the risk. Alyson Deniel could be the biggest problem on ultra-consistent Our Boy Jack.
2.10 Ascot: I marked down the High Chaparral Derby entry Toronado as a horse to follow after his impressive Newbury debut, and I’m sorry this is uncompetitive and leaves us buying money.
2.50 Market Rasen: Ladies Day is not at Ascot but at Market Rasen, where Denis O’Regan is hoping to land a hat-trick in this with Australia Day, going for his second success in the race in three years.
But young horses (9 out of 10 under the age of seven) win this round the tight right-hand Lincolnshire track, 7 out of 10 having raced in June or July.
Local Hero is well named for this, being trained only 12 miles away at Scamblesby, near Louth. He is a Grade-2 horse (won in that class at Cheltenham, second at Ayr), who’s fit from the Flat.
3.20 Ascot (Summer Mile): Some smart sorts win this (Cesare, Premio Loco, Dick Turpin), with four of the five winners having already won a Group race.
But rarely do we see a Derby third who would have been more at home in the King George on last year’s form: Carlton House drops back to a mile for the first time since he won his maiden in the autumn of 2010. Took the Brigadier Gerard in the Spring and ran up to So You Think at Royal Ascot, both 10 furlongs.
The royal colt’s keen running style suggests he can force most of these off the bridle before the business end of the race, with the Gosden-Buick Earl of Sefton (Group 3) winner, Questioning, ‘the one most likely to’ pose a threat.
3.25 Market Rasen: Peter Bowen won this four times in six years (2003-8) and seems to have found another leading candidate in Al Co. Eastlake has good form in the book and Tony McCoy champions him by missing his breakfast and getting down to a light weight..
3.55 Ascot (International Stakes): Four-year-olds dominate this (7 wins in 10 years), with none over the age of five and the only three-year-old successful carried a featherweight 7st 12lb.
Of two second-season animals at the foot of the handicap, Van Der Art doesn’t look up to it and Van Ellis is carrying a penalty (only one win from 20 attempts): that leaves seven four-year-olds off 8st 4lb or less.
Royal Ascot course-form is paramount and Capaill Liath ran a cracker in the Royal Hunt Cup, though Amy Ryan switches to stablemate Lightning Cloud.
Lightning Cloud was on the wrong side in the Wokingham and had suffered the same fate over CD in the Victoria Cup, though beaten little more than three lengths in each.
Both the Kevin Ryan runners have been lucky with the draw in 9 and 10, if the jockeys repeat yesterday’s preference, and since the obvious front-runner is Andrew Balding’s Highland Colori (stall 1).
I wouldn’t rule out the Balding improver who gets a mile and has shown battling qualities, but there are three previous winners of this race, plus Bunbury and Victoria Cup scorers to tempt us to look higher in the handicap at the older horses, though all have clearly paid for their success with handicapping hikes.
Edinburgh Knight is my pick of them: has gone up 11lb since a CD winner last backend but so has his stature, having won a Listed and run up to Libranno in a Group 3.
4.35 Ascot (King George, see Tuesday’s ABC guide – CLICK HERE): I can’t have last year’s winner, Nathaniel, so soon after his grueling battle with the year-younger Farhh in the Eclipse.
He could prove me wrong – he was said to need the race before Sandown – but the King George comes a week earlier than when the double has been done in the past, apparently to avoid the Olympics.
A month’s breathing space has elapsed since Sea Moon blew them all away in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, with Melbourne Cup one-two, Dunaden and Red Cadeaux, second and third, and recent Newmarket Group-2 winner Fiorente – five lengths behind Nathaniel at Ascot last June – trailing in sixth, more than 13 lengths adrift of Sea Moon.
Sea Moon was unlucky in last year’s St Leger (favourite but squeezed out) and his only other defeat as a late-maturing horse was when, slowly away, he ran second to St Nicholas Abbey on very fast ground in the Breeders Cup.
St Leger winner Masked Marvel was no match for St Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation Cup but Ballydoyle’s star has to rectify the fate of 24 successive five-year-old losers in this race, and I can see ‘Moon’ getting his revenge as the progressive year-younger animal.
Danedream is the enigma: on Arc form, when she blasted five lengths clear, with St Nicholas Abbey, Reliable Man and Masked Marvel behind, she would just about win this.
Her defeats since can be put down to firm ground and a small-field, tactical race (she obviously loved the melee of Longchamp), and 11.0 offers constitute a big price for an Arc winner aimed at her first major target since, particularly now she’s finally had some sun on her back and is said to be returned to her old form.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1pt win and place ORPSIE BOY (1.35 Ascot)
BET 3pts win LOCAL HERO (2.50 Market Rasen)
BET 4pts win AL CO and 2.7pts win EASTLAKE (3.25 Market Rasen)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.5pts win LIGHTNING CLOUD, 3.75pts win EDINBURGH KNIGHT and 1.9pts win HIGHLAND COLORI (3.55 Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 9.6pts win SEA MOON and 3pts win DANEDREAM (4.35 Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double TORONADO (nap, 2.10 Ascot) and CARLTON HOUSE (3.20 Ascot)
HORSES TO FOLLOW running today: Toronado (2.10 Ascot), Bonnie Brae (3.55 Ascot) and Nathaniel (4.35 Ascot)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless raised to jackpot level) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing. Jackpot bets are for higher returns. Daq Multiples are at SP.
* Points are what you make them: if you bet in fivers, then 5pts win is £25, tenners and it’s £50, and so on.
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