FOOL’S GOLD: DON’T TOUCH ‘RUPERT’ AT 14-1: Daqman has a banker bet at Exeter today but his article deals with the markets. He warns against a Gold Cup bet on yesterday’s winner, Time For Rupert, being quoted as low as 14-1 by bookmakers.
It’s a long way between the nosebag and the starting gate? Between my breakfast assessment of the race and the ‘off’, you must be guided by the Betdaq betting.
As far as my tips are concerned, I am smiling when the odds have been cut, or despairing and hedging my bets by the time of the race after events have unfolded against me in the market: example, no way was Pasco at the races yesterday.
We knew that to be the case when he was offered 6-1 with only ‘mug’ takers near the time of the race. In the event, he never ever threatened to get involved, jumping stickily and always off the pace.
The same stable’s Polisky, backed down to odds on, was beaten 51 lengths (no chance from a long way out) into sixth behind Broadbackbob in the previous race.
No Stewards’ inquiry to answer the punter’s obvious question: what went wrong? Inquiries only seem to happen these days for whip offences.
This follows Saturday’s shock when the same yard’s Hinterland was turned over at 7-2 on. Lesson 1: Don’t plunge at odds on in novice races. Lesson 2: Read the race again afterwards with the hindsight of the market.
Lesson 2 tells me that anyone backing Time For Rupert for the Gold Cup on the strength of yesterday’s so-called comeback should be made to rest quietly in a darkened room.
The 14-1 I see among the bookmakers’ prices is nonsense; Betdaq offers of 25.0 are much nearer the mark but I won’t be taking that price either.
What did Rupert beat? A hyped horse, The Giant Bolster (real form UF4U7), a beginners’ chase winner, Carpincho, officially 25lb his inferior, and the aforesaid not-at-the-races Pasco.
The market was talkative for the first three events yesterday: Newbury winners with their forecast odds were 4-5 Ardlui (from 11-8), Penny Max 4-1 (6-1), Colour Squadron 7-4 (4-1). Losers included Tango De Juilley 11-2 (from 5-2), Montbazon 5-1 (from 5-2).
This column can give you a start on betting swings but Market Movers updates come later in the morning, and are a big help. If you have taken an early position, you’ll be able to decide whether or not to stick or buy one more horse on the card. Or lay, or lay off, of course.
I always start with a log of early drifters. Reason: if I’m looking for value, I don’t want to be caught out by the seeming value of a dog on a raft.
If there are no takers among early-doors thieves, that horse goes on the ‘suspects’ list as a day’s market rogue. I’m glad of him because, if I leave him out of, say, an overround of 107%, my bet in the race will be within an underround situation.
Breakfast-time NH drifters today were: Great’s Autrechene (2.50 Exeter) forecast 11-2, available at 9.6; Grand Article (12.40 Towcester) 5-1 out to 16.0; Frizzo (1.10 Towcester) 4-1 to 10.5; Porgy (2.10 Towcester) 10-1 to 40.0.
There was a positive for Toto Corde Meo (3.40 Towcester) ,8-1 to 3.8, but that may be partly due to non-runners in the race. Check it out for further strength.
Two important points: Wait until the Betdaq markets have settled to 120% or lower; for preference, price up the cards yourself and check whether you think the Racing Post has made any Betting Forecast errors (a rick in the forecast would create a misleading guide to the market).
Actually, you don’t want a betting forecast; you want a price assessment of each horse, as if you are turning your personal ratings for the race into odds.
Going back to Grand Article’s ‘drift’ from 5-1 forecast to 16.0, in their 12.40 Towcester betting prediction the Racing Post ‘book’ adds up to 127% book.
With Grand Article out to 16.0, the Betdaq ‘book of offers’ as I write is 128%. Therefore, some horses must have closed in the market. One answer: 7-1 Smokey George is now 4.2, which seems very significant for a horse with reappearance runs of P6.
A drifter like Grand Article will often end up a non-runner later on. If so, I make no apologies. He has served well as an example for reading the early market.
According to my stats anorak, one in 37 of these drifters actually win! In which, case, his price now needs to nearly treble before I’m interested.
BET 3.7pts THE LAODICEAN (1.40 Towcester)
BANKER: BET 20pts win ARAUCARIA (2.20 Exeter)
BET 3.4pts win AMMUNITION and 1.7pts win (stakes saver) RATE OF KNOTS (2.40 Towcester)
BET 4.2pts win GUNS OF LOVE (3.10 Towcester)
BET 4.6pts win HILBRE COURT (3.30 Southwell)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win treble Smokey George (12.40 Exeter), Royal Charm (1.50 Exeter), Araucaria (2.20 Exeter)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.