20-1 DAQMAN CATCHES KEMPTON LAYERS ON THE HOP: Daqman’s Kempton analysis of Betdaq-sponsored races turned up Clodhopper (WON 20-1) last night on a day of three winners in which his best results per race were 21101. Our in-form tipster got his nap and double up on Tuesday.
I don’t want much: just 100% chance at odds against. It would have to be an unbeaten horse with an unbeaten trainer and an unbeaten jockey at an unbeatable Betdaq ‘price’ of around 5-2.
That’s just about what I got this morning when I took 3.65 offers about Miss Cato, who is 2-2 on AW, ridden by William Carson, who is 2-2 for the trainer, Rae Guest, who has a record in the last two weeks of 2-2 in the frame, a winner and a third.
Unfortunately, they are running other horses in the race (there’s always a snag, isn’t there). But has Miss Cato really only around a 27% chance, as the odds suggest.
The race is the 4.50 at Wolverhampton. Against her is that she gained both her wins at Southwell – and today’s surface may not have so much cut and kickback – but in her favour is that she got behind at Southwell on both occasions, something that often spells disaster on that tight track, particularly from the low draws she had and should have taken advantage of.
The one they wanted this morning was Gabrial’s King, a Wolver winner only recently, and progressive judged on his last three runs, but Miss Cato is officially 2lb ahead of the handicapper on future ratings.
They’ve ridden Meet Joe Black several ways without getting the result they want; Samollie has looked one paced and, though he represents an in-form yard, Luctor Emergo hasn’t ‘emergoed’ with much credit in his maidens.
There was interest this morning at around 7.0 for the first-time-blinkered Cantor (2.50), who’s done most of his racing at Kempton. Joe Fanning has ridden him the last twice, when there was money about for him.
Cantor’s trainer, Giles Bravery, has a 36% record in this particular type of race at Wolverhampton.
At Southwell, Dashing Eddie (3.30) has all the percentages going for him: he’s 100% on the course this year (2-2), and trainer Kevin Ryan, who is 50% in this type of race there, has Philip Makin – the tracks leading jockey – striking at 80% when he rides for him.
But Mr 100% of the day is David O’Meara, who runs two in the opener: according to the trade paper, he’s getting the absolute maximum out of his horses right now.
O’Meara’s current form figures are 23113 (last 14 days), and his Fear Nothing is back to the CD, where he was the ‘moral’ at the start of the year, beaten a head giving weight when 11-4 favourite.
Stablemate Fashion Icon hasn’t been seen since April but we’re bound to have a saver since, if she ran to 100% her best, she would nearly win it.
Shawkantango is a worry: his January-February form at Southwell last year was 111, though he hasn’t shown much lately, and trainer Derek Shaw’s current 100% record is not an enviable one: 15 runners, no winners, in the last fortnight.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.2pts win FEAR NOTHING and 0.4pts win and place FASHION ICON (1.30 Southwell)
BET 3.3pts win CANTOR (2.50 Wolverhampton)
BET 7.5pts win MISS CATO (4.50 Wolverhampton)
DAQ DOUBLE: Dashing Eddie (3.30 Southwell) and Miss Cato (nap, 4.50 Wolverhampton)
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