TWO 13-2 WINNERS IN TWO DAYS: After Dedication (WON 13-2) on Tuesday, Daqman launched his York meeting yesterday with Gatewood (WON 13-2) in the very first race. But, when his evening nap came out of the pack at Bath, a Hannon juvenile had already flown.
DANTE RECKONING FOR DAQMAN’S DERBY ‘OVERS’: Daqman’s column took 29.0 BETDAQ offers about Mandaean for the Derby (half that price or less now with most bookmakers) and both Mandaean and Ernest Hemingway are on his horses-to-follow list. So the Dante Stakes at York takes on a special meaning this afternoon.
Camelot won’t be odds on for Epsom after 2.30 this afternoon. The Dante Stakes at York has a line-up which suggests that the race is looking at its fourth Derby winner in nine years.
I face the Bonfire of the vanities or a Fencing hoist with my own petard but, over the breakfast table, my two horses to follow, Mandaean and Ernest Hemingway, have me sitting pretty, with a plateful of Epsom ’overs’ from Mandaean (this column took 29.0 on BETDAQ, now 12-1 with Betfred and Hills).
1.30 York: They came down the middle in the sprint handicap yesterday, but veered over to their right in the Duke Of York, suggesting the jockeys thought the stands’ side ground is best.
But I still rate the chances of Ronald Harris, who won that handicap with Secret Witness from stall 15 (same trap today if he runs), via his Judge ‘N Jury, claimed off in 5, so 11lb lower than when fourth in the 2011 race after a good effort 12 days ago in the same Goodwood handicap he prepped in last year.
Taking the claim into account, the winner of the 2011 renewal, Ancient Cross (stall 9 today), is now 25lb worse with him, though Judge ‘N Jury was less than two-and-a-half lengths behind that day.
Judge ‘N Jury is also 11lb better off with Steps, though fourth to that one in a finish of necks and a short-head at Doncaster in October.
The improver in the high numbers is Magical Macey (stall 14), up 17lb for three wins out of four from August. But more interesting for me are Gramercy (in 13) and Swiss Franc (in 10); both have raced in grades much higher than this.
Gramercy, who took in a 7f Group 3 last term, is still high in the handicap and this 5f may be sharp for him but, though the form book doesn’t say so, this could be the day for Swiss Franc (front-runner with Ryan Moore booked).
Trainer David Elsworth’s horses were backward coming into the season but he has suddenly clicked and almost caused a shock (though not to this column) with Bonnie Brae in Saturday’s Victoria Cup, also ridden by Moore. Swiss Franc has had a run and 16.0 offers on BETDAQ won’t break the eurobank.
2.00 York (Middleton Stakes): The Oaks one-two of 2009, Sariska and Midday, have won the last two runnings of this, which seems to recommend Izzi Top, third in last year’s Oaks, and Sajjhaa, second in the Middleton last year when Midday won for Sir Henry Cecil.
Four-year-olds are 7-3 up in the decade, which gives the edge to Izzi Top, who has already bagged a Group 3 at Newmarket this Spring. Her dam won this race in 2003.
I’m A Dreamer (goes well fresh), Sajjhaa and Timepiece, the replacement for Midday, are all up against it but we haven’t even looked at Barefoot Lady, Beatrice Aurore and Set To Music yet: it’s such a strong fillies’ and mares’ race, I shall take one out of this result for the Coronation Cup.
This year’s Royal Ascot race will be tagged the Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup and, sitting in the hot seat with the royal runner, Michael Bell, launches Set To Music’s season in the Middleton. I see her as the danger to Izzi Top.
2.30 York (Dante Stakes): I have to be worried about Fencing when I check out the opposition to my pair, Mandaean and Ernest Hemingway, after the same stable’s filly, The Fugue, ran away with the Musidora yesterday.
William Buick only had to shake the reins at The Fugue to win and the Oaks is currently looking stronger than the Derby. But that’s before this Dante, which seems to have depth.
The Fugue was boosting the form of the Newmarket Guineas, and the colts’ version, won by Camelot, is all we have to go on for Epsom until today: Fencing was sixth in the 2,000, whereas The Fugue had been fourth in the 1,000.
But, since French Fifteen was a neck second, the 2,000 Guineas also boosted Bonfire, who was third to French Fifteen in the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud in October after an interrupted run. The following month, Mandaean won the Criterium de Saint-Cloud.
The French Fifteen ‘criterium’ looked much the stronger of the two but Mandaean – like Ernest Hemingway – can do no more than win when asked and, both unbeaten, have huge potential for improvement; Mandaean’s pedigree is packed with stamina, so I won’t be surprised to see him attack the Dante field.
Whatever wins today will challenge Camelot for favouritism at Epsom: as I write, the BETDAQ offers for the Derby are 9.8 Bonfire, 19.0 Ernest Hemingway (not even quoted by Ladbrokes, suggesting, as I forecast, this is more a Leger horse) and 25.0 Fencing.
That’s big. Some of those Fencing offers just have to be taken, which means that, for today’s race, I’m going to be backing Mandaean (4.7 at time of writing) and Fencing (5.9) to cover my Epsom bets.
And, if this Dante does come up trumps, and Camelot is set to ease for the Derby, why not lay him now: you’ve always got the rest of the field running for you or, if he’s so much bigger after the Dante, you can buy him back with a bet that makes money on the margin in between!
3.00 York (Hambleton Stakes): Fury is infuriating, isn’t he. You can’t back him with confidence, but you can feel positive about Justonefortheroad, as targeting the race after his second in it last year: 8.2 is tasty.
Mijhaar, who goes well fresh, could be a big danger: the market seems to think he’ll win, and I can’t find anything else in the race. Of course, you could back Fury to place: you get better than evens on BETDAQ, so double your money about a horse that’s finished in the threes in both Lincoln and Spring Cup.
It’s a race to play half a dozen different ways; that’s the benefit of BETDAQ betting. Just one more for the road: I hear that Continuum is well forward for Sir Henry Cecil (7.00 Newmarket).
DAQMAN’S BETS:
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.1pts win JUDGE ‘N JURY and 2pts win and place SWISS FRANC (1.30 York)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) IZZI TOP and 1.1pts win (stakes saver) SET TO MUSIC (2.00 York)
BET 5.4pts win MANDAEAN and 4pts win FENCING (2.30 York)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 4.1pts win JUSTONEFORTHEROAD; 5pts place only FURY; 3pts win (stakes saver) MIJHAAR (all in 3.00 York)
BET 2.3pts win CONTINUUM (7.00 Newmarket)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Mandaean and Ernest Hemingway (2.30 York)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 1.25pts win FENCING at 25.0 and LAY to win 10pts CAMELOT at 2.12 (both Epsom Derby)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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