CHECK OUT THE DERBY AND OAKS TRENDS: Today: Daqman looks at the Derby and Oaks picture. Tomorrow: the big midweek card at Epsom.
The Guineas is back in fashion as a Derby trial. The Derby and Oaks trends have been almost reversed in recent years, with the old key trials on the back burner.
I will be following the prep races as they happen but which among them are currently of best use in assessing the Classics?
DERBY: The Guineas has returned to the fore as a major trial for the Derby. In the good old bad old days, a stoutly-bred strong finisher over the Rowley Mile at Newmarket was your first bet for a position on the Derby.
Then it didn’t seem to happen until Sir Percy followed up his Guineas third with a win at Epsom six years ago; the trend continued when New Approach was second at Newmarket before his Epsom success, then Sea The Stars bagged the double of Guineas and Derby in the manner of a Nashwan.
So look out in next Saturday’s Guineas for a placed finish by a colt with the breeding to capitalize on it at Epsom. When I assess the race, I will do so with the Epsom in mind (as well as looking for the winner, of course).
While the Guineas has returned to form as a Derby guide, the Dante has continued to more than hold its own: Epsom winners North Light eight years ago, and Motivator, Authorised and Workforce since, all ran in the York race (17th May).
OAKS: The last five runnings of the Oaks have floored most punters: all were won by late developers.
None of the Epsom Classic heroines – Dancing Rain, Snow Fairy, Sariska, Look Here, Light Shift – won a top fillies’ two-year-old trial. In fact, only one was even placed at Group level, and that was in a Group-3.
Light Shift, Look Here and Sariska managed only to break their maidens at two; nothing dramatic. Light Shift and Sariska needed two runs at three before the Oaks, at Chester (Cheshire Oaks in May) and York (Musidora, also in May).
But Look Here remained something of an enigma until the day: she was beaten in the Lingfield Oaks Trial in her only second-season appearance before Epsom, so that she arrived at the Oaks start with just two runs to her name.
Similarly, Dancing Rain was beaten in a Listed race at the start of her three-year-old career.
For quite the opposite reasons, Snow Fairy was another enigma of the Oaks in those five years. She had seven races as a two-year-old, doing nothing much of note, and of course prompting the accusation: fully exposed.
But she came good in her only prep race at three, the Height Of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood (yet another trial to watch for next month) and confirmed her born-again status at Epsom.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 5pts win MY KINGDOM, and 2pts win and place AMAZING STAR (3.20 Wolverhampton)
BET 4.5pts win HIT THE SWITCH and 4pts win FADE TO GREY (3.55 Wolverhampton)
BET 2pts win and place on each SCOTTISH BOOGIE and WAR SINGER (4.55 Punchestown)
BET 8pts win (nap) FENNELL BAY (7.05 Southwell)
ALREADY ANTE-POST: WIN-50 JACKPOT: 1.9pts win SWEDISH SAILOR (27.0, Epsom Derby); WIN-30 JACKPOT: 1.03pts win MANDAEAN (29.0, Epsom Derby)
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