12-1 AND 28-1: NOW DAQMAN HUNTS ROYAL ASCOT HAT-TRICK: Daqman, whose tips are free on this Betdaq site, will tomorrow attempt a treble in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot after winning in the last two years with Julienas (WON 12-1) and Invisible Man (WON 28-1).
HOW HE’S MADE 220 POINTS PROFIT: The Daqman Library under the green button reveals him as the man for the big occasion but also your daily guide to value: 150 points up with 31 jackpot winners since December and 70 points in profit on his lays from the start of the Flat. His bets, and points system, are at the foot of the column, and yesterday’s guide to Ascot week is in the Archive.
THREE NAPS UP OUT OF FOUR: Daqman’s current naps sequence is 1121 after Set To Music (WON 6-4) at Warwick last night, following Valiant (WON 7-4) on Friday and Opinion (WON 3-1) on Saturday, with his Sunday best bet second at 9-2.
Frankel is the champagne with the caviar. Both unbeaten horses – Frankel 10 successive wins, Black Caviar 21 – are expected to burst like a flying cork from the bottle straight into the history books at Royal Ascot in this week of weeks.
The punter, who will get only pennies for his pound, must stand and stare. Racing itself, searching for a bigger audience, must watch with bated breath in the hope (if hope alone is ever such prohibitive odds on) that the twin dynamos have not lost their power.
I cannot recall two trailblazers – both horses are front runners – in the same year, never mind at the same meeting. It’s a day to talk of Shergar, Dancing Brave, Sea Bird, Nijinksy.. yet these two, Frankel and Black Caviar, are in a different mode: not necessarily better horses but both electrically charged, lightning fast from start to finish.
2.30 ROYAL ASCOT (Queen Anne Stakes): You won’t get much backing Frankel, except a heart attack if anything has the guts and stamina to close him down. Can he last out up this wide-open mile on said-to-be-softish ground?
Betdaq is a big help to the punter, with only 1% commission, but do you have the nerve to ‘buy money,’ even if his nearest rival in the betting, Excelebration, must be sick of the sight of his behind?
At 1.17 in the green this morning, Frankel doesn’t need nerve to lay him. Yes, I won’t be having a heart attack: I win either way! If he streaks home, I am delighted for the sport and I’ve lost pennies, not pounds. If he ‘gets beat’, I shall be just a little sad as I count my winnings (ching ching).
I shall be a double-dyed dealer, in fact: as well as laying Frankel, I shall back him among my Daq Multiples on this majestic opening day.
Another alternative, if you want to watch through your wallet, as well as viewing a moment of history, is to back something to be second or third behind Frankel: the Betdaq place market is the answer. It could give you two reasons to cheer in one race.
My suggestion is Windsor Palace, as he acts on the ground and gets further. How many times have we seen the Ballydoyle second-string beating their favourite?
If I’m right about the appropriately named Palace, and Frankel wins, a place bet will win back the coppers I lose on my lay, with a few pounds to spare!
3.05 ROYAL ASCOT (Kings Stand Stakes): In the lead-up to the meeting, I’ve promised to lay another appropriate name for the day, Bated Breath, because of the rain.
In truth, we don’t know the state of the going until the jockeys come in from the Frankel race and tell us (though I don’t think any rider dare be cheeky enough to say ‘I couldn’t get near him ‘guv; must have been the ground’).
But, in fact, my prediction – my opposition to this favourite – has already had results: the 4-1 paper favourite was out to third spot in the Betdaq market, at 6.8 this morning, and 7.4 in the green is not my kind of lay (I am pledged to this column that I lay only short-odds first or second favourites or paper favourites). The lay value has gone.
This is a poor race for favourites generally (only two in five years) but Wizz Kid takes over at the front of the market with these credentials: sprinters from abroad have won six of the last nine Kings Stands and he will love any cut in the ground.
His trainer has won the race before and he’s been saved up for this with just two runs, his last-time success being back-to-back in the Prix Du Gros-Chene, with some of these well beaten.
If Meydan form is a guide, a line through Sole Power suggests there is not much between Bated Breath, Ortensia, Monsieur Joe and Joy And Fun, of which the Aussie mare Ortensia could be a herald for Black Caviar.
3.45 ROYAL ASCOT (St James’s Palace Stakes): This is the race Frankel won last year. He was following in the hoofprints of previous Group-1 winners and Guineas-placed horses, which flags up only Power, Foxtrot Romeo, Hermival, Lucayan and Wrote (Grade 1 in USA).
The rest, in theory, should stay at home, which is harsh on Sea The Stars brother, Born To Sea. He did finish strongly in the Irish 2,000 but so did my house cat when the mouse had bolted; like Power at The Curragh, he was already home. Power looks the ace in the hole again here.
As in Born To Sea’s case, excuses were made in the French Guineas (won by Lucayan) for Dragon Pulse in that he pulled hard early on. Maybe this faster pace will help but there wasn’t three lengths between the first 10 home at Longchamp and a crowded dance floor means there isn’t a Travolta among them.
Hermival, third at Newmarket, had a unique explanation for his Curragh flop (twisted testicle) but has he the balls to win a return bout with Power?
The joker (apart from me) may be Most Improved, well touted for the Newmarket Guineas but had to miss the race. However, I can’t bet on a ‘maybe’, so it has to be Power.
4.25 ROYAL ASCOT (Coventry Stakes): Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner six times, and the last six Coventry scorers came to the line-up unbeaten. So you have both Cristoforo Colombo and Lines Of Battle. Yes, it’s another Ballydoyle enigma for punter’s to solve.
Or is it? Jim Bolger’s Dawn Approach and Richard Hannon’s Sir Prancealot, both also unbeaten, could break the enigma code.
I pointed up Bolger’s poor year in my ‘losers’ preview to the meeting but he clearly has a standout in the yard with Dawn Approach, while Sir Prancealot’s camp are obviously bullish, since they have switched their colt from an easier task in the Norfolk Stakes later in the week.
But Betdaq backers may have made a mistake this morning: Ladbrokes, who know the score at Ballydoyle, are massively shorter about ‘Colombo” than any other bookie; they are showing 9-2 whereas most go 11-2 and 6-1.
Yet you can get 7.6 on the Daq! Thanks guys; hope you won’t send me to Coventry if I steal a bit of that. I’m not saying the horse will win; I’m saying the layers have given me value in their offers about the Irish challenger. And that’s the only way to win in the long run.
If an Englishman is to win it, it could be Englishman (11.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing); the form of his Newbury win on the soft has worked out well, and I’d love to see Charles Hills line up a Classic contender. His Dad won races for me so many, many times.
5.00 ROYAL ASCOT (Ascot Stakes): I usually reserve my jackpot stakes (increasing the bet to win 30, 40 or 50, rather than just 20 points) for handicaps like this, on the grounds that, if you can solve them, you have much bigger odds.
The purist professionals would disagree: they would say, bet on level-weights races where some horses are better than others but the handicapper can’t get at them. That’s all right, but you may have to take Frankel prices!
Seven of the last 10 winners of this were saddled by jumps trainers, but Nicky Henderson’s Veiled, last year’s winner but 7lb higher and out of form over jumps, is being given away this morning by Ladbrokes and Chandler (sorry, Victor).
The tip from the bookies is the mare Danvilla – another with a jumps trainer – who has had to battle over distances short of 2m because she is said to be an out-and-out stayer.
But she ran too freely behind Cosimo de Medici, who impresses me because he’s won on both soft and firm; he’s improved a stone over the last year, despite racing only half a dozen times. I also like the way he’s been primed for this, with just the one run back.
5.35 ROYAL ASCOT (Windsor Castle Stakes): Earlier results should give you a clue to any stalls bias. Otherwise use a pin, aiming at all offers between 9-4 and 100-1 (which violently varied SPs have been returned in the last four years).
My pin, sharpened by a bit of nous, came down on Pay Freeze, with Mick Channon, having a great season, bagging last year’s winning rider, Johnny Murtagh; that’s my nearest to 9-4.
And my 100-1 shot is Pixilated (actually only 98.0 on Betdaq as I write; what’s the matter with you guys), trained by the exuberant Gay Kelloggs, who talks about her lot as if they are Frankels. Let’s hope she’s opening the caviar after this one.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
LAY 10pts FRANKEL and BET 3pts place only WINDSOR PALACE (2.30 Royal Ascot)
BET 3.8pts win ORTENSIA, 3.7pts win WIZZ KID and 0.25pts win and place MONSIEUR JOE (3.05 Royal Ascot)
BET 4.4pts win (nap) POWER (3.45 Royal Ascot)
BET 3pts win CRISTOFORO COLOMBO and 2pts win ENGLISHMAN (4.25 Royal Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.3pts win COSIMO DE MEDICI (5.00 Royal Ascot)
BET 3.4pts win PAY FREEZE, and 0.2pts win and place PIXILATED (5.35 Royal Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 3pt win trebles Frankel (2.30 Royal Ascot) with Ortensia and Wizz Kid (3.05 Royal Ascot) and Power (3.45 Royal Ascot)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
* Points are what you make them: if you bet in tenners, then 4pts win is £40; 3.2pts win is £32 (in fivers, those stakes would be £20 and £16). Daqman bets to a level return so that you can easily assess his tipping ability.
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