ST LEGER IS EASY AS ABC: Daqman analyses each of the likely St Leger runners on Saturday, with a stats ABC of their chances, as betting reveals Camelot seemingly isolated at the front of the market, with just one other Main contender.
A Nine of the last 13 St Leger winners ran in one of the European Derbys
B Seven out of 13 finished in the frame in the Great Voltigeur
C Sires of 12 of the last 14 winners had a Racing Post stallions-stamina index of 10.3 or more
D Six of the last 11 winners were trained by John Gosden or Aidan O’Brien
Somebody up there decided to give us a break. These islands, so often the laughing stock of world sport, have – in the same year – Olympic, grand-slam tennis and Tour-de-France champions.
Even England’s footballers won 5-0. Yes, I know it was a tiddlers’ match, but we used to pussyfoot around in those games, caught in the mesh, too nervous and dysfunctional to find the big net.
Now racing must join this elite. Come on you guys, you connections of Frankel and Camelot, let’s see these great horses on the world stage. Don’t let English and Irish racing get left behind, as the stay-at-home sport.
You have absolutely nothing to lose; your stud fees are assured, and protecting a winning sequence will earn you no plaudits in this year of years.
The Arc De Triomphe and the Breeders Cup beckon the bold. Franklin will hardly have a race in the Champion Stakes and Camelot has had a long holiday since his English and Irish Derby double before being brought back to peak for an historic Triple Crown (and then a big world target?)
Camelot’s one obstacle on form at Doncaster is Thought Worthy, as winner of the Great Voltigeur, but he’s drifting like a lonely dog on a raft, just about beyond the betting weir at 18.5 this morning.
The stats still say Thought Worthy but the betting indications – from the market that matters, on BETDAQ – suggest that Main Sequence is the real danger. Here’s the line-up:
ABCD Thought Worthy Beat Main Sequence in the Great Voltigeur at York, the trial that so often matters for the St Leger, and trainer John Gosden has won four Doncaster Classics, including the last two with Arctic Cosmos and Masked Marvel.
But Thought Worthy, whose brother, Lucarno, did the Voltigeur-Leger double in 2007, held Derby runner-up Main Sequence by only a neck at York, taking control of the race and leaving his rival too much to do.
ACD Camelot Unbeaten in just five starts, always favourite and four times odds on, but warrants a measly 5lb more than his opening 2012 mark of 119, according to the official handicapper.
Since he was beating only ‘nearly horse’ Born To Sea of any merit in the Irish Derby, he could hardly be raised much for that, but his Epsom Derby defeat of Main Sequence by five lengths looks decisive for Doncaster on Saturday. If he stays.
He also beat Thought Worthy that day – he was 11 lengths adrift in fourth – but there’s no doubt that the Derby came too soon for both Main Sequence and Thought Worthy, and their 9lb and 18lb official arrears on the favourite don’t look right.
AB Main Sequence Has belied his breeding. He’s by a sire with a stallion’s stamina index of only 9.9 furlongs and out of a Pivotal (7.8) mare.
But the family has done well enough up to 1m 7f, and Main Sequence has improved 9lb since his Epsom Derby second to Camelot (lacked the winner’s turn of foot, kept on well).
He was caught out by the Thought Worthy surge from the front in the Great Voltigeur but closed him down to a quarter of a length at the line. He wouldn’t want rain.
ACD Imperial Monarch Beat Thought Worthy in the Sandown Classic Trial in April but that was an age ago for three-year-olds who have developed.
And unlike many other Ballydoyle colts in the shadow of Camelot he has continued to run in his own right, not been a pacemaker or one of a group entry in big races (until now).
He was the sole O’Brien starter in the French Derby (hampered, switched, possibly one of those occasionally over-confident Joseph O’Brien rides) and looked a stayer in the making when taking an uncontested lead in the Grand Prix De Paris and lasting home comfortably.
Behind him that day was Main Sequence after twice being hampered, but the Racing Post man on the spot says in his commentary: ‘Stamina is Imperial Monarch’s forte.. Main Sequence’s rider had to ease off and it’s possible that, with a clear run, he’d have been second at best but probably (only) third.’
There is some doubt about Imperial Monarch’s participation on Saturday. If we knew for certain he would run, the 45.0 on BETDAQ this morning looks a goldmine alongside the miserly 7-1 of Betfred and the Tote.
B Encke Has had only five races in his life and is entitled to improve on his Great Voltigeur third to Thought Worthy and Main Sequence but the 9.9f stamina index of his sire suggests that it won’t be over 1m 6f in the St Leger.
B Thomas Chippendale Has shown a penchant for soft ground, finishing in front of Thought Worthy at Royal Ascot, but well outpaced on a sound surface in the Great Voltigeur, fifth.
CD Chamonix At 50-1 with Coral and Power and 86.0 on BETDAQ, yet Chamonix has been a Ballydoyle whisper in the week running up to the Leger. Highly regarded.
Victory would be a huge feat for a colt whose last run was to break his maiden at Killarney but you have here a son of Galileo whose dam was runner-up in a Breeders Cup. His future is in front of him, as the great tautology says.
CD Michelangelo Another Galileo but the dam suggests this is a trip too far. Behind Encke when third at Goodwood in July and looks Listed level but John Gosden clearly wants his own army to match the Ballydoyle strategy.
C Guarantee Chamonix, Guarantee and Ursa Major are the only Leger runners to have won already at the 1m 6f trip, but Guarantee’s was only a class-2 handicap and, though he’s shot up 18lb in two months, he needs to improve that much again to get near Camelot.
C Ursa Major It would be great to see the Carmody show laughing after the Leger and this colt has leapt 23lb from handicap to Group 3 in the last quarter. Needs to improve another stone. Soft ground would help.
D Dartford Tunnel vision required to see this one winning. Most likely a pacemaker for the main Gosden duo. In fact, led a long way in a Group 3 at Newbury last time.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2pts win and place ROLAND and 1pt win (stakes saver) MARHABA MALAYEEN (2.30 Redcar)
BET 11pts win (nap) CENTRED (3.50 Leicester)
BET 3pts win SILVER SYCAMORE and 2.7pts win KIWI BAY (4.00 Redcar)
BET 2.5pts win SCARLET BELLE (4.20 Leicester)
BET 1.2pts win and place ZA’LAN (4.40 Worcester)
Daqman’s bets are all staked to win 20 points so that you know the offer he took on BETDAQ (20 divided by stake).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
