16-1 START FOR DAQMAN AT KEMPTON: Daqman spots an outsider with the winning look at 17.0 on the Daq in the first of four Betdaq-sponsored races at Kempton Park this evening.
4.15 Kempton (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Handicap) Blinkers are still a rogue’s badge in many cases but used astutely by the right trainer can lift a horse’s performance.
Stuart Williams is a dab hand with the blinds. He has a 31% strike rate when he adds blinkers to the aids for the first time.
In fact, his grey filly Cara Carmela has no other form of headgear but she does have the advantages of a decent draw and bottomweight.
She has to turn around the form with two December runners-up, Deveze (at Wolverhampton) and Lisselton Cross (here just before Christmas) but, ironically, both were wearing blinds for the first time in those races.
It’s often the case that the effect is for one race only and, sure enough, Deveze faltered next time out. For Lisselton Cross today is his ‘next time out.’
Paper favourites Avonvalley and Brian Sprout are both with trainers on the ‘cold list’, their yards having failed to find a winner for 91 and 106 days respectively.
John Jenkins has had nine of 16 runners in the frame in the last 13 days, including two winners, and Papageno should be on song after a run back last week from a break.
Pharoh Jake’s stable is in good form, while Porthgwidden Beach and Pavement Games are the CD winners in a race of seven maidens. With ‘Porthgwidden’ returned to her best trip here, she is the threat to another Williams’ coup with the blinkers.
4.45 Kempton (Betdaq Multiples Handicap) Rocky Elsom, formerly with John Oxx in Ireland, makes his handicap debut for the combination of David Arbuthnot and Jim Crowley, which is 40% in this type of race on the course.
Alan Bailey and Dominic Fox – on his only ride of the day – are 50%, and Dazzling Valentine, back to form last time out, should be on the premises.
Megalala is 11 now, almost the combined age of Focail Maith, Cheylesmore and Sergeant Troy but is a five times CD winner, though never off today’s mark, Kieran O’Neill’s allowance included.
Kempton has not so far been Focail Maith’s cup of tea (four losing runs); front-runner Cheylesmore is not certain to get today’s new trip, and Sergeant Troy has to show he can cope with the surface.
Despite success at Lingfield since, Nibani is officially only 2lb higher than when an unlucky third over CD 23 days ago but, in fact, Leonna Mayor’s allowance cancels that out.
She knows Nibani well and is due to partner her recent winner, Resplendent Alpha, returning to Kempton on Saturday.
5.15 Kempton (Back Or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap) Adam Kirby and Jeremy Gask are 50% in races like this at Kempton but Titus Gent is a 6f specialist and has a poor record here.
Earlesmedic goes up another 2lb soon so tries to get in ahead of the handicapper, but was only eighth of 10 in the race last year.
Of the CD winners, Island Legend used himself up from a wide draw last time and has a better chance from the four stall. It’s Best Trip’s second time back from a break but he’s in 10.
Robert Winston’s only ride of the day, Kyladdie, is in 11 but is a strong contender if fit and well from a six-months break. No reason why not, with Steve Gollings’ stable hitting a 57% win-and-place strike rate.
But his success has all come between March and May and none off as a high a mark as today, so he’s one to watch until coming down the ratings and until the bird is on the wing.
Desert Strike (has never won off today’s mark) and Cadeaux Pearl both won last time out, and back-to-back success is not easy at this level.
In fact, Cadeaux Pearl’ s previous wins were followed by 13th of 13 and ninth of 11. That’s typical of a winner’s future below class 3.
Volcanic Dust was denied a clear run when splitting Diamond Charlie (winner) and Desert Strike (seventh) over CD in December and is a false price (7.2 this morning) because of a too-bad-to-be-true run last time.
5.45 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Median Auction Maiden) Not much form to go on but a strong bias to low numbers in the draw.
House Limit (in one) failed in a seller; Cats Eyes (2) is making her debut; Casa Bex (3) has run fairly well in better races at Newmarket but the yard is 0% with first-time blinds; Mister Mackenzie could take them on from stall four; Gem Of Wizdom (5) has had only a week to find something on her poor effort over CD.
My idea of the winner is Dark Castle (6), well supported on the debut over 1m, and showed enough pace in a big field that day in December to suggest that his future lies over shorter. Well related to sprinters.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.2pts win and place CARA CARMELA (4.15 Kempton)
BET 10pts win NIBANI (4.45 Kempton)
BET 3.2pts win VOLCANIC DUST (5.15 Kempton)
BET 6.2pts win (nap) DARK CASTLE (5.45 Kempton)
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