HAIL HAYLEY FOR BETDAQ RACE AT KEMPTON: Daqman saw the colour of their money when spotting Painter Man (WON 11-4), which kept him in the profits picture yesterday. Today he expects another gamble, this time on Hayley Turner’s only evening ride on the Betdaq-sponsorship card at Kempton Park.
Draw your own conclusion. Maybe the ‘form’ figures you want today are 3, 5, 5, 6, 5, 3, 1. Those were the results by stall at Kempton Park yesterday.
It doesn’t always work out that way but stalls 1-6 have won 74% of races at the seven meetings on Polytrack this January; 1, 3, 5 and 6 are the pick of the draw with 61%.
The bigger fields on this Betdaq-sponsorship evening (6.10 and 7.40) have the strongest bias to low numbers, according to the stats.
4.40 Kempton (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Maiden Fillies Stakes) Not much edge in this small field and no giant clue like last year when Seamie Heffernan was over here to ride the winner.
Marco Botti (Barbarella Blue) is 3-8 and John Gosden (Jellicle) 4-9 as they plunder the AW maidens in 2012. Mark Johnston (Chatterati) has had 10 winners in varying types of races and Tony Carroll 7.
Jellicle is the form horse, officially 5lb in front of Chatterati; she’s run against decent maidens at Newmarket; and, perhaps most importantly, she’s bred to do seriously well on today’s surface, as US half-sister to Grade 1 winners out of a Grade-3 winning dam.
Barbarella Blue is also well-related in the context of AW, and you’d expect to see her run well without winning today and going into the notebook for the future.
5.10 Kempton (Betdaq Multiples Maiden Stakes) Gosden again, though Stars In Your Eyes is one of two fillies against colts and geldings in this. The step up in trip from her staying-on Lingfield third looks perfect.
Hawawi’s fourth to 121-rated Breeders Cup runner-up, Sea Moon, seems very flattering, and Queen Of Denmark (Johnston) may be the bigger threat, half-sister to Grade-1 winners in Hong Kong and Australia.
5.40 Kempton (Back or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap) One in four of Marco Botti’s handicap debutants win, and he seems bent on Ragda doing so, with blinkers applied for the first time. Botti also has a 25% success rate with first-time blinds.
The snag is she’s drawn 9 but the race won’t take much winning: the favourite, as I write, Daniel Thomas, is a 10-year-old whose strike rate is one win in two years. He’s just had his win.
Like Querido, another one who had his winning turn recently, he has won off a higher mark; unlike Querido, he hasn’t put back-to-back wins together before.
Very Well Red has returned to form the last twice, recently running up to Querido, and is today 5lb better off for just over two lengths. A front-runner, this is her time of year: two of her last three wins were in January.
Luke Morris (Sir Ike) is two from two riding for Michael Appleby but the intriguing runner is Renoir’s Lady, Hayley Turner’s only ride of the day and a big gamble at Lingfield (20-1 to 5-1).
Simon Dow gets the money back 50% of the time in ‘next run’ after a tilt: 9.6 on Betdaq this morning but, in a very open market – 5.3 the field – she is the one likely to shorten up.
6.10 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap) The low draw should help here or, to put it another way, some of this 14 will be burning up energy, struggling from a far-flung stall.
In theory, the bottom three are also up against it, out of the handicap, if by only a pound: claimers are brought on; so are blinkers.
The betting forecast suggested a wide-open race but the Betdaq market has settled on just two horses, as I write.
It’s 10.5 bar My Scat Daddy, who quickly repaid a breathing op by scoring at Lingfield in his first handicap, and Auntie Kathryn, who doesn’t appeal to me, having tried and failed in blinkers and running for nothing now.
DAQMAN’S BET
BET 3.5pts win RAGDA and 2.3pts win RENOIR’S LADY (5.40 Kempton Park)
BET 9.5pts win (nap) MY SCAT DADDY (6.10 Kempton Park
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