150.0 FANTASY BET FOR EPSOM: Daqman, who has made 246 points profit in the last six days, now presents his guide for Saturday’s big race at Epsom, with a bet which suggests he’s got a touch of the sun!
DERBY ABC GUIDE: What’s on a Derby winner’s CV? Here are the stats that tell you what to look for, labeled A, B, C, D, E with F denoting the known ability to act on a sound surface:
A: Winner of a Group race (9 out of 10)
B: Sire a Group-1 winner with 8.6 or more stamina index (9 out of 10)
C: Won or placed in Dante Stakes (6 out of 10)
D: Won 7f or more as a two-year-old (8 out of 10)
E: Of the six with English ratings, five ran off 113 to 121
F: Won on top of the ground
What price a Ballydoyle 1-2-3 in the Derby? With four of the 12 likely runners, the signs are good, Astrology being the one most likely to follow home his Aidan O’Brien stablemate, Camelot.
But the whispering maestro is always full of surprises; we’ve seen him take the 1,000 Guineas from the front with an outsider, Homecoming Queen; and we’ve seen him Power home in the Irish 2,000 with one nearer last than first in our version at Newmarket.
On the day, any place bet, including on any one of the three other O’Brien runners, will give a better return than a win bet on the favourite.
If you’re a Betdaq bettor, you can exchange place-only offers in a separate market, and I shall be looking to the biggest Ballydoyle outsider. I’m having a pound on that horse in the win market, too, on the grounds that anything can happen in this crazy season of mud turned to a road, when many horses have had interrupted preparations in the record-wettest Spring.
My choice is Father Of Science. I hope he stays in at the final declaration tomorrow and gets one of Ballydoyle’s better jockeys. In fact, when you look at this bred-in-the-purple beast, he has such fantastic scope for improvement that he could be another one of Aidan’s secret weapons.
At 150.0 on BETDAQ this morning, I’m gonna have my ‘silly pound’ now, and play the place market on the day. How do the bookies bet Father Of Science? Ladbrokes, who are usually in the know about Ballydoyle, go only 33-1. Who’s crazy now?
Although the last 100-1 winner was in 1913, there have been 100-1, 66-1 and 50-1 places in modern times and winners, too, not so long ago.
What price would these Derby heroes have been on BETDAQ? In 1946 Airborne won at 50-1; in 1947 Pearl Diver 40-1; in 1961 Psidium 66-1; and in 1974 Snow Knight 50-1. Even a Lester Piggott Derby winner was 33-1. Never Say Die!
ABCDEF Bonfire Has done best of four foals of a daughter of Night Shift, sire of Champion Stakes and King George winner, Azamour, who missed the Derbys, growing in stature as he developed later on.
Bonfire’s sire, Manduro, also developed late, with five straight wins as a five-year-old, including two Group/Grade 1s.
Bonfire fits all the stats, having won the Dante Stakes, which has thrown up Epsom heroes North Light, Motivator, Authorised and Workforce in the last decade.
Andrew Balding’s colt might have been going to Epsom unbeaten, had he not been hampered in the Criterium International at Saint-cloud, finishing just behind the 2,000 Guineas runner-up, French Fifteen.
The Dante third, Fencing, four-and-threequarter lengths behind Bonfire at York (good), had been six lengths behind Camelot in the Guineas (good to soft).
ABDEF Camelot By Montjeu, the sire responsible for Derby winners Authorized, Motivator and Pour Moi, and the Irish Derby and Arc winner, Hurricane Run. Second foal of a Kingmambo mare, who was a mile-and-a-quarter winner up to Group-3 level.
Only four others behind him in the Racing Post Trophy in October but did it at cruising speed, beating Fencing (third), who would this year finish further in rear of him in the 2,000 Guineas (good to soft) before running third to Bonfire in the Dante.
Camelot became the first horse to do the Racing Post/Guineas double since High Top in 1972, and the runner-up had won the big French trial, Prix Djebel.
But others behind were subsequently to perform badly, with the exception of German Guineas winner, Caspar Netscher and stablemate Power, only 17th at Newmarket but relishing the switch to a sound surface at The Curragh to win the Irish Guineas, with the Newmarket third and fourth, Trumpet Major and Hermival well beaten.
Coup De Ville, Fencing, Ptolemaic, Red Duke, Born To Sea, Boomerang Bob and Saigon all came out of the Guineas and failed next time out. So, two winners and nine losers from an English Classic. Not a pretty sight for breeders.
ABDEF Astrology Though regarded by the bookmakers as inferior to Camelot, Astrology does well in the stats, as a son of Galileo, first foal of a Group-1 winning mare, who was best at 1m 2f.
Galileo’s super sons are legion: Frankel, of course; but, more importantly here, English and Irish Derby winners New Approach and Cape Blanco, and King George winner Nathaniel.
Astrology was third, only threeparts of a length inferior to Parish Hall in the Curragh Futurity – the winner then running second to Power – and reappeared with a runaway Dee Stakes (1m 2.5f) success on soft ground from three others.
ABDF Main Sequence Unbeaten in four starts, his unfashionable breeding tells us nothing but a bit of whimsy: this first foal of a dam from a staying family, is by an American sire who was trained by Frankel (the horse’s namesake, U.S. handler Bobby Frankel).
But Main Sequence should not be underestimated on the racetrack, having shown stamina with a finishing kick, including twice successful at Newmarket.
Supplemented for Epsom as winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial (in good time), which last produced the Epsom winner in 1998 (High-Rise).
ABDE Imperial Monarch By Galileo (see Astrology). Dam’s sire was Derby winner Slip Anchor, and this Ballydoyle colt is closely related to Derby second The Great Gatsby and the stayer Mount Athos.
Imperial Monarch has a high knee action and was in his element, encountering heavy ground at Sandown for the Classic Trial, in which he beat Thought Worthy (see below). Morning drifts suggest he may not even make the race.
The Sandown Classic Trial winner last took the Derby in 1986, though a runner-up, Benny The Dip, captured the Epsom prize in 1997.
ABDF Mickdaam Half-brother to a Group-1 winning mare, Mickdaam had a winning winter season in Dubai, finishing fourth to Daddy Long Legs in the UAE Derby on the Meydan tapeta. Wrote, who was just in front of him that day, was seventh of 10 to Power in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.
Mickdaam booked his Epsom ticket by winning the Chester Vase (going soft, time 15 seconds slow), pipping Model Pupil a nose after that one had beaten the Lingfield Derby Trial runner-up to Main Sequence.
ABDF Thought Worthy Brother to St Leger winner Lucarno, and the only one supported against Camelot this week, was outgunned on the heavy by Imperial Monarch in the Sandown Classic Trial.
Despite an enormous going change (to good to firm), Thought Worthy was in the firing line again for a Listed at Newmarket, just outgunning Frankel’s brother, Noble Mission, and Rugged Cross in a blanket finish.
BD Rugged Cross Half-brother to winners up to 1m 4f, including back-to-back (Newbury Group 3) Arc Trial scorer Blue Monday. Third, beaten only about a length, by Thought Worthy at Newmarket.
BD Tower Rock Son of Irish Derby, King George and Arc winner Dylan Thomas but related to milers on the dam’s side. Front-runner who was second in the Derrinstown Derby Trial and pace-setting is probably his task on Saturday.
B Father Of Science Another son of Galileo (see Astrology), and half-brother to Derby winner High Chapparal. Too backward as a two-year-old, and still a baby on his debut in April, but quickly asserted to break his maiden at Chester three weeks ago, a race which has been won by Group-1 winners, including Harbinger. Could be anything.
B Minimise Risk Yet another Galileo; dam from the family of Darshaan. Behind Mickdaam on the soft at Chester and stable second-string to Bonfire.
DF Cavaleiro Sire Sir Percy was a Derby winner for the same stable. Won the Haynes, Hanson and Clark as a two-year-old but only third to Main Sequence, nearly seven lengths off him, in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 7pts win YKIKAMOOCOW (4.10 Ayr)
BET 9.5pts win (nap) GLITTERING GOLD (8.15 Folkestone)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble the above two with THE DARLING BOY (3.20 Sedgefield)
ANTE-POST: WIN-100 JACKPOT: 0.67pts win FATHER OF SCIENCE (Derby Stakes, Saturday, at 150.0)
* Moderate racing today. Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated or in Daq Multiples) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken for a win bet at the time of writing.
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