CALL HOUSE! AND BINGO IT’S A RIGHT-ROYAL ASCOT WINNER: Her Majesty The Queen’s Carlton House plus a Chinese whisper in the Royal Hunt Cup for a name that means ‘wealth’. That’s how Daqman sees the cream of the card at Ascot today. Here’s his race-by-race analysis.
2.30 ROYAL ASCOT (Jersey Stakes): The low draw on the far side generally had the best of it yesterday, and five of the last six winners of this race came from stalls 4 to 10.
Boomerang Bob (stall 5) and Lethal Force (in 10) were in the frame at last year’s royal meeting but both are frustrating, Boomerang Bob a bridesmaid who hasn’t lived up to Spring promise and Lethal Force similarly close up without winning, whether he’s in Group or Listed, which also takes the shine off the form of Swiss Spirit (in 2) and, collaterally, Valbchek.
Staying with the low draw, Lady Gorgeous, Eastern Sun, Ewell Place and Rebellious Guest are lonely dogs on a raft, not wanted on BETDAQ this morning, drifted to 80.0 and beyond.
Lady Gorgeous carries with her over the betting weir Producer and Justineo after their 1-2-3 at Epsom (Producer won it well, though is a course specialist on the Downs and likely to be found out on the straight Ascot track).
Sentaril (stall 11) is unexposed and ‘could be anything’ but there’s no value in her 5.4 offers as I write and fillies have a bad record in the race (last won it in 1991).
That leaves me the Ballydoyle pair, Ishvana (in 6) and Reply (in 9), Irish Guineas placed respectively in the 1,000 and 2,000 at The Curragh.
On the other side, which could get pace from Bannock, Aljamaheer should improve – only three runs on his CV – though he’s beaten ‘nothing’ so far. But, like Valbchek, the pattern of his form suggests that he has been laid out for this race.
Both could surprise my choice, which is Reply: I like 7.0 about an animal who has never been out of the frame in a Group 1; his third in the Middle Park and then a Guineas may indicate that this 7f is just up his street.
3.05 ROYAL ASCOT (Windsor Forest Stakes): This is a smaller field but, again, any low-stall bias is confirmed by previous results: five of the last six winners came from stalls 4 (two), 5, 6 and 7.
But it’s hard to see where the pace is coming from, unless it’s I Love Me (stall 1) – she has set it before – who might be there to lead stablemate Lay Time (in 7).
The BETDAQ market says that Lay Time (13.5 at time of writing) will improve past her Epsom conquerors, Clinical, Joviality (both at 16.5) and Barefoot Lady (29.0). Excuses for track and ground were made for Lay Time that day and John Gosden insists that Joviality didn’t like the course either.
I make Joviality best of these outsiders: she took the lead at this distance in the Coronation Stakes a year ago but faded in the final furlong (Barefoot Lady third, I Love Me fourth, Clinical last).
Of this morning’s favourites, Chachamaidee has been beaten three consecutive years at Royal Ascot, including runner-up in this race last year, one paced.
On a line through Barefoot Lady, Emulous is a stand-out but Nahrain showed at Longchamp (Prix de l’Opera) and Churchill Downs (Breeders Cup) that she can race in touch of a fast pace and she may be able to assert, despite her preference for a couple of furlongs further.
The snag with Emulous and Nahrain is that they have to break the hoodoo of a Group-1 penalty: all five fillies with this burden (including such luminaries as Soviet Song) have failed to reach the first two, so I am stepping up my stake on Joviality.
3.45 ROYAL ASCOT (Prince Of Wales’s Stakes) So You Think it’s all over? The stats say not: six-year-olds don’t win it, and the last nine winners came from stalls 1 to 6.
Carlton House seems well suited to this 1m 2f and would raise the roof of the stands as a royal winner. The stats demand that you must have a Group 1 winner but every one of those remaining in this race – Planteur, Reliable Man and Wigmore Hall (Grade 1) – were beaten out of sight by So You Think last season.
Planteur is best of these: he edged So You Think out of third spot in the World Cup and had Reliable Man behind when running third to Golden Lilac and Cirrus Des Aigles (Sheema Classic winner over St Nicholas Abbey).
I could take Carlton House and Planteur (a massive 12.0 on BETDAQ) and cover with a saver on So You Think, but that would mean betting at odds on, so I’m biting the bullet and doing the double whammy at 2.1 the lay So You Think, hoping one of eight younger horses improve past him. Well, one of them should, on all known records of this race.
4.25 ROYAL ASCOT (Royal Hunt Cup): What we’ve surmised about the draw, and what really happened in the earlier races today, is put to the test in a handicap in which high numbers usually hold sway (23, 24, 25, 27 twice and 28 in the last decade).
But a better assessment would be to say that only one winner has come from the no-man’s land between the low numbers (6 and 11 have won) and the high, between 11 and 23; that’s the sandwich with a baker’s dozen in the middle almost squeezed out.
Dimension in stall 7 has to be a bet or a saver, with James’s Fanshawe’s five runners all having been placed (two wins) but that’s the gelding’s only recommendation, apart from a class-3 7f course win last September.
Cai Shen (stall 1), at 16.5 double Dimension’s offers, has to give the Fanshawe beast 7lb but that’s understandable, since he’s been placed in a Group-3 and was the moral winner – beaten half a length giving 8lb – of the Britannia over CD on this card last year (Belgian Bill, hampered, fourth).
Capailll Liath, Common Touch and Captain Bertie were all drawn low in the Britannia when high stalls filled the first six places home. Of these, Common Touch has just now come to himself but Captain Bertie is the progressive one, having scored first time back after being gelded.
I’m taking Cai Shen and Dimension of the low draw, Captain Bertie (14.0) in the middle and Belgian Bill (13.5) on the high side.
The ground has come for Cai Shen, who is better off with Belgian Bill today (so is Trade Storm), and should get the fast pace a 10-furlong winner needs. The Chinese name means ‘wealthy’ and is often used as the greeting: Be lucky (with money)!
Cai Shen was well held by Boom And Bust (has drifted to 28.0) at Goodwood last July and Marcus Tregoning’s star would have been my selection on a firm surface (watching brief today now).
The easy terrain is perfect for Bonnie Brae (Victoria Cup second on soft) and I’ll let him run in my horses-to-follow list but David Elsworth couldn’t train ivy up a wall right now, with three winners all year.
5.00 ROYAL ASCOT (Queen Mary Stakes): The market for this changes dramatically after any draw bias in the Royal Hunt Cup. Get an early position by all means but be ready to bet again, high or low, as dictated by the Cup. I like Mironica on breeding but it’s a pin stickers’ race unless there is strong movement in the market and/or a distinct stalls bias.
5.35 ROYAL ASCOT (Sandringham Stakes): The bottom eight are carrying too much, in the sense that they are pushed out of the handicap proper by Electrelane.
Electrelane represents the form of the massive improver Laugh Out Loud (runs in the Coironation Stakes on Friday) and is a big price at offers of 8.2.
Equally, the UAE Oaks winner, Falls Of Lora shouldn’t be 20.0 and I’ll take those two, with a saver on the unexposed Irish raider, Duntle.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.3pts win (nap) REPLY, 3.2pts win VALBCHEK and 0.7pts win and place ISHVANA (2.30 Royal Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2pts win and place JOVIALITY, plus BET (win 20) 5.2pts win NAHRAIN, and 3.8pts win (stakes saver) EMULOUS (3.05 Royal Ascot)
LAY 10pts SO YOU THINK, and BET 6.6pts win CARLTON HOUSE and 1.8pts win PLANTEUR (3.45 Royal Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 2.5pts win CAPTAIN BERTIE, 2.4pts win BELGIAN BILL, 1.9pts win and place CAI SHEN, with 1.1pts win (stakes saver) DIMENSION (4.25 Royal Ascot).
BET 2.8pts win MIRONICA (5.00 Royal Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.1pts win ELECTRELANE and 1.5pts win and place FALLS OF LORA, with 1.3pts win (stakes saver) DUNTLE (5.35 Royal Ascot)
HORSES TO FOLLOW running today: BONNIE BRAE (4.25 Royal Ascot)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
* Points are what you make them: if you bet in tenners, then 4pts win is £40; 3.2pts win is £32 (in fivers, those stakes would be £20 and £16). Daqman bets to a level return so that you can easily assess his tipping ability.
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