FANCY A BET ON FRANKEL? Daqman suggests that the presence of Farhh in the Sussex Stakes will ease Frankel from the unbackable 10-1 on of Royal Ascot. Meanwhile, Daqman’s nap of the day (he currently has best-bet form figures of 112) runs at Sandown.
Frankel could be backable at Goodwood. He may well be more of a working-man’s price, particularly if Nathaniel wins Saturday’s King George at Ascot.
Back-to-back King Georges for the Gosden favourite would be a big boost for Farhh, who forced Nathaniel to pull out all the stops in the Eclipse.
You won’t see Farhh in the acceptors for the Sussex Stakes on the first day of August but Godolphin promise to supplement him, despite his deficit of 138-122 behind Frankel in the official ratings.
I’ve always believed that there is a contrary element in the Frankel story, even though he is the long-life power-battery, supercharged to 11 consecutive wins.
He will be immensely hard to beat at Goodwood, once ignited over this easy mile – beat Canford Cliffs in the race last year – but has frightened away all the opposition this season, and keeps on beating the same horse, Excelebration.
Canford Cliffs never raced again, found to be injured after his defeat. If you exclude him, the horses Frankel has beaten are as follows:-
Excelebration (four times), originally on 126 and now on 125: stagnation. Dubawi Gold 126, one win in 17 months, down to 117: deterioration.
Zoffany, up from 115 to only 118; hasn’t won a race for two years. Immortal Verse 121; dropped off the OR radar. Side Glance, Group-3 at best, awarded one pound for his third to Frankel in the Queen Anne.
Frankel is up 10lb in a year, despite the stagnation and deterioration around him with the same-old, same-old opponents. That rise and rise could be argued, since he’s lengthened his lead over Excelebration at the business end of their last three starts from four lengths to five and finally the awesome 11 lengths of the Queen Anne.
But, again, a different ratings situation is implied by the close proximity (to Excelebration) of that Group-3 winner, Side Glance. He raced off 113 in third at Ascot, a neck and a length in front of 108 and 104 horses.
Since those two were older horses they are unlikely to have improved, certainly not at the same time, so Side Glance – awarded a pound remember – actually ran to 110 at best, yet the horse a neck in front of him, the ever-inflated Excelebration, was off 125. Don’t make sense, in any Sugary language.
Meanwhile, Nathaniel, 128 after his 2011 King George, is down a peg or two to 126, despite the Eclipse success, and Farhh, only half a length behind him at Sandown – therefore potentially around 125 – gets only 122.
Which do you think is the 125 animal, Excelebration or Farhh? Whatever your answer to that, you have to concede that Farhh is the improver of the two, up 22lb this year and placed behind So You Think in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes straight out of a handicap.
Even if he continues to improve only 4lb a race, as officially considered, Farhh should be a 129 horse by the time of the Sussex Stakes. If Nathaniel wins the King George, he may get nearer to that in revised ratings, officially.
It closes him down on Frankel enough to attract some support. And punters who have watched the beloved Henry Cecil beast in cruise mode without a bet on him could get an improved offer. Frankel may even have a race on his hands. At last.
Meanwhile, if those ratings boys are right – with Simon Turner agreeing with the Topspeed man in the Racing Post – Sir Mike (7.30 Sandown) is the wrong price at 6.6, behind Viscount Vert in the market, though he was beating that one at Windsor when his rival’s saddle slipped.
The worry is Hilali, easy winner at Newbury, but he’s hiked 10lb in a better race and, though Sir Mike seems to be a bridesmaid (with form figures of 2232), he has been placed a class higher and is better off at the weights with Viscount Vert.
I missed Tim Easterby’s Beverley double yesterday and backed his runner-up: sweated like a pig (I’ve never seen a pig sweat – Ed).
Let’s try to get the right one today, swerving the bridesmaid Blue Shoes (3.10) and opting instead for Sweet Fairnando (4.10), first time in a handicap, as was the stable’s Forster Street (won 8-1) yesterday.
Saute (2.50 Uttoxeter) looks hot potatoes, dropped to a seller from class-4 level over hurdles, after a floperoo over fences. Level weights with American Art but 11lb higher in the ratings.
Lingfield steals the show with a splendid class-3 memorial to Paul Kelleway (4.00), daughter Gay laying it on the line, fielding a three-time Lingfield winner.
Can Layline cope with a 9lb rise and another step up in trip (and a wrongly spelled name!)? Can Albaraka emerge from pattern company to take a handicap? The market says: no way. Not a sniff for either.
It brings me back to the beginning of this column and another Godolphin improver, Silent Moment.
Too short at 2.22 but clearly on the upgrade and, as with Biographer, a three-year-old likely to take advantage of the concessions having to be made by older horses. Biographer is made of gold and I don’t think we’ve seen half of him.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.8pts win BIOGRAPHER and 3pts win (stakes saver) SILENT MOMENT (4.00 Lingfield)
BET 5pts win SWEET FAIRNANDO (4.10 Catterick)
BET 3.5pts win (nap) SIR MIKE (7.30 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles Biographer and Silent Moment (4.00 Lingfield) with Sweet Fairnando (4.10 Catterick) and Sir Mike (7.30 Sandown)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing. Daq Multiples are treated separately.
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