HAT-TRICK OF NAPS HAS LAYERS UP THE CREEK: Daqman landed his third consecutive nap yesterday with Pine Creek (WON 6-5) at Leicester, following Saphir Du Rheu (WON 7-4) on Monday and a place nap, (Minsk 2nd 5-1 from 12.0 on BETDAQ), the day before.
69 POINTS PROFIT IN TWO DAYS: What Daqman did at Taunton on Monday – three doubles and a treble – he was within an ace of repeating at Leicester with two out of three, Pine Creek and Thunderstorm (WON 10-11). A separate bet on Ronaldinho (WON 2-1 from 6.0 on BETDAQ) lifted his two-day profit to 69 points.
There are grounds for a bet today at Doncaster and Ludlow. Apart from Warwick on Saturday, these are the only two meetings in the next week with ‘good’ in the declared going forecast, and the weathermen reckon there’s more rain on the way.
For this reason, Donald McCain wasn’t going to wait until Kempton (Saturday, soft) for Overturn’s reappearance, even though today’s race (2.15 Doncaster) is run over further than he would like.
The Arkle second favourite, runner-up in the Champion Hurdle, should have too much class for his field, with his record when fresh 2211.
But the favourite in the previous race, Soudain (1.40) is suspect: he’s a slogging stayer and his success in chases has come on one course, his local track, Market Rasen, on soft and heavy.
His form under Rules on good-to-soft or better is 3330 and, in fact, over fences, he’s still 6lb lower than his rating for hurdles, though he won only a maiden ‘over the sticks’.
His winning rivals, Civil Unrest, Nodform Richard, Toby Belch and Whistling Senator, have scored on a sound surface and the drying ‘good to soft’ at Donny should suit them all. Yet Soudain is market leader on BETDAQ this morning.
They don’t want to know Toby Belch, who hasn’t won for four years, and Civil Unrest has work to do on his jumping. It leaves me choosing between another McCain, Nodform Richard, and – getting more than a stone from him – the Tony McCoy mount, Whistling Senator.
There is a marked difference between the two: Nodform Richard has a 62% win-and-place strike-rate on a left-handed track; Senator’s winning form is all right-handed. I took 4.2 and hope I haven’t made a ‘Noddy’ of myself.
By the way, he said casually, as if it didn’t mean a really big edge to the punter, the offers in the BETDAQ orange for the first four races on Town Moor added up to 108%, 105, 105 and 104. Punter-friendly or what!
But I can’t resist a big-field handicap (even so, it was only 110% overround), although the Health and Fitness (of my wallet) is endangered in the 2.50.
And they’ve made another horse with soft-ground form, Master Benjamin, favourite for the race, though he is only a maiden, and Parc Des Princes (huge at 10.0) is a sound-surface horse who’s won at a similar trip and is a winner in a higher grade.
It’s hard to play in maidens, bumpers, novices and conditionals races, which shreds Ludlow, but leaves us with another handicap hurdle for our sport, with the total probability for the 1.55 totting up to 107% in the orange. Nice one, BETDAQ.
I just had to take an early position, and fancied a pound win and place at this morning’s 17.5 Canadian Diamond, who would have finished 10 lengths in front of Brick Red at Cheltenham in November but for unseating rider two out. Brick Red was on offer today at 3.85, at the time of writing. Don’t make sense.
I also fancied getting in early on Young Jackie (1.30 Lingfield), blinkered first time and likely to be a punt in the ‘seller’, with George Margarson’s horses in peak form (50% strike rate): 15.0 on BETDAQ.
Young Jackie is an each-way price but I don’t do place bets in ‘sellers’. I reckon if I’ve got the right horse, it’ll either win or lose; to place would be to expose it.
BETDAQ MULTIPLES: Haaf A Sixpence (2.05 race totting up to 106% in the orange) was strong early doors for Lingfield and Whitby Jet should account for the plater Purple ‘N Gold (4.40) in the Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Handicap at Kempton.
Well, I’ve done just that with five winners out of six in my doubles and trebles in Daq Multiples over the last couple of days. Let’s go in again!
DAQMAN BETS
BET 1.4pts win YOUNG JACKIE (1.30 Lingfield)
LAY 10pts SOUDAIN and DAQ VALUE BET 6.25pts win NODFORM RICHARD (1.40 Doncaster)
DAQ VALUE BET 1.2pts win and place CANADIAN DIAMOND (1.55 Ludlow)
DAQ VALUE BET: 2.2pts win and place PARC DES PRINCES (2.50 Doncaster)
DAQ VALUE BET: 10pts win WHITBY JET (4.40 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 6pt win doubles and 2pt win treble HAAF A SIXPENCE (2.05 Lingfield), OVERTURN (nap, 2.15 Doncaster) and WHITBY JET (4.40 Kempton)
* Daqman bets to win 20 points (so you can work out the Betdaq offer he took by dividing 20 by his stake). This doesn’t apply to Daq Multiples. Daq Value marks races which were between 104 and 110% total probability at the time of making his selections.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
