BANKER LAUNCH FOR LONGCHAMP: Daqman launches Arc weekend with a banker on the opening day at Longchamp. He also analyses the cards at Ascot and Newmarket and the big race at Redcar, with his current record:
Daqman 88, Pricewise 14
Bankers form: 1111
Naps form: 1111112
DAQMAN ARC VERDICT TOMORROW: Look out tomorrow for the race of the year, when Treve takes on the might of Europe, including the English and French Derby winners, in her bid for three Arcs in a row.
TWO WAYS TO PLAY THE NEW CONCESSION GAME
2.15 Newmarket (Tattersalls Millions 2-y-o Fillies’ Trophy) Nell Gwyn and Guineas Trial winners have come from the two runnings of this race, which is set aside for fillies from the main race at 2.50.
If Alice Springs gives her Moyglare and Cheveley Park running, she should eat these but three races within little more than a month, the last one only a week ago, may have left their mark, so not banker material for me.
Would she wobble in the market? While I couldn’t accept 1.56 (on BETDAQ this morning), I could always offer 1.86 to a few quid and see if someone would oblige me, and maybe put me on the right side of the lay offers (currently 1.67 best). I wonder what minute margins could be created for trade?
Experimentation like this with small money is one way of getting used to exploiting the new commission concession, getting involved in a horse you’d normally ignore because of the short price, and learning more about what BETDAQ has to offer.
2.50 Newmarket (Tattersalls Millions 2-y-o Trophy) My idea yesterday of Frankie Dettori setting a pace on John Gosden’s Secateur which Pin Up couldn’t match worked out a treat.
Except that Gosden’s other runner in the Noel Murless Stakes then passed them both! Will I ever learn, will I (.. (don’t answer that)?
Well, I’d surely remember to back both Gosdens in this race, Vermeulen as a saver if I fancied East Indies. But I can’t really see past Ballydoyle’s Dewhurst hope, Waterloo Bridge, as Aidan O’Brien bids for a quick double.
More experimentation, with Cunning Plan No 2? (I hope it’s not too Baldrick). Why don’t I ask for a bit bigger offer about Waterloo Bridge (say 3.9, half a point extra over the morning orange), then gamble the commission I might save in a single-point double the two O’Brien horses, Alice Spring and Waterloo Bridge. Win, win, win?
3.00 Redcar (Two-Year-Old Trophy) The third two-year-old trophy of the afternoon has the biggest field of the three, with Log Out Island and Mayfair Lady dropped back from the Pattern, so with clear chances.
Tim Easterby had back-to-back success in this (2012-13) and his Mattmu caught a tartar last year in Limato, so Still On Top at 11.5 is probably the win-and-place bet of the race. Yes, I know he has four other runners!
ESOTERIQUE SET FOR REVENGE IN SUN CHARIOT
3.30 Newmarket (Sun Chariot Stakes) Andre Fabre’s Esoterique swerves Sunday’s home match with Limato in the Prix de la Foret for the extra furlong of today’s race.
Her away game is pretty good: she’s won a Group 3 over 1m 1f at Newmarket and ran up to Solow in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, but she is trying to avenge last year’s defeat in this Sun Chariot by Integral.
Esoterique was also beaten by Bawina in the Spring but that was on very soft ground. Since then, Realtra has improved around a stone and may repeat her thrashing of Fadhayyil at York.
But I feel that Esoterique is a better mare this season: the ‘moral’ over the flying Mihaarar – beaten half a length, giving weight – and smooth Group-1 winner at Deauville over 2,000 guineas runner-up Territories.
TRIPLE WHAMMY WITH A ‘BEAUTY’ 23.0 OUTSIDER
2.00 Ascot Though well-known names have won this – Steps, Move In Time, Tangerine Trees – no clear favourite has scored in the decade.
Apart from the old boy Kingsgate Native, only Dutch Masterpiece has scored in a Group race, though Wind Fire was the ‘moral’ just outpaced, giving weight to the winner of a Group 3 at Sandown in July.
That brings us to Newbury recently when Wind Fire was fourth and Dutch Masterpiece fifth in another Group 3, not for the first time a slow start by Dutch Masterpiece costing him a place.
The sound surface gives Wind Fire the edge here, though there’s a potential improver in Grand Beauty, lightly raced and attempting the leap from four grades lower
With Gary Moore out of form, I’m laying the sluggish Dutch Masterpiece for a place, backing Wind Fire for the win and Grand Beauty for a place (a cracking 23.0 the win on BETDAQ this morning).
2.35 Ascot (Cumberland Lodge Stakes) In a race of nearly horses – aren’t you tired of Hillstar, Red Galileo, Romsdal and Windshear – I shall take another improver, Star Storm at 5.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
Since many punters follow the same old same old, I bet Star Storm might be a bit bigger than 5.8. I’ll test the market by offering 6.0. If I get a taker, I’m on 2% concession should he win, which I think he will. Win, win?
3.10 Ascot (Bengough Stakes) This is a tricky sprint, another tight group of nearly horses, with the front four in the BETDAQ market separated by only 1.4 points, a clear opportunity for you to push the boat out and make some bigger offers.
The total percentage in the orange was already only 104% at those offers and, if you believe that the rest of the field (9.0 bar four) can’t win, you are reducing that to 80%.
Why not cap the offers on each of the front four, enough to guarantee the commission concession but not enough to balloon that big margin you think you have.
If you’ve followed this column over the years, you’ll know that I seldom entrust my money to one horse in a race. It’s winning the race that counts.
But I’m tilting against Pricewise here and he thinks it’s smart to have just the one bet. So we’ll take him on with Eastern Impact, a player in the July Cup and Haydock Sprint Cup and down in grade here at a delicious 6.4.
3.45 Ascot (Challenge Cup) another three-year-old improver here, Make It Up, but he leaps two grades and is hardly the Group horse in a handicap that some in the Press are saying.
The same stable has last year’s winner, Intransigent, with both horses claimed off, but with winners very hard to come by in the second half of the season.
They usually come down the middle here, which favours two of the four Fahey runners. One of them, Tatlisu, has just won the Ayr Silver Cup, and usually keeps his form, at least for a place.
Buckstay has a big chance at the front of the market, but I shall also have a bit on 30.0 outsider, Majestic Moon, who was an Ascot CD winner earlier in the month and has a claimer to help nullify the extra for that.
A ‘BAD’ START FOR RAIDERS AT LONGCHAMP
1.30 Longchamp (Prix Chaudenay) Jane Chapple-Hyam pits her Goodwood Listed winner The Twisler against Big Blue, trained by Andre Fabre, who has won the race 11 times!
Big Blue has never been out of the frame. He, too, is only a Listed level winner but represents Arc hope Erupt (they were one-two over 1m 4f in May).
Big Blue has also been beaten recently by Vazirabad, and that was most significant, as it was on good ground over today’s CD at Longchamp.
2.40 Longchamp (Prix de Royallieu) Another Arc hope, Frine, won this last year. That was a blow for the four-year-olds but they trail the Classic generation 29-10 since 1975.
England and Ireland have had eight wins in those 39 years, including John Gosden in 1996 with that year’s Nassau Stakes third Annaba.
His runner today, Martlet, a York Listed winner on the last day, has improved 34lb during the year, according to the British handicapper.
Candarliya looks a big danger but has only narrowly beaten Al Naamah, who was a long way behind British fillies in the Epsom Oaks.
3.15 Longchamp (Prix Dollar) Godolphin, who have taken this prize three times since 1997, have French Navy with Charlie Appleby, Fractional trying to follow up last year’s success for Andre Fabre, who has seven Dollars to his name in all.
Fractional only won it last year on the disqualification of Cirrus des Aigles, and French Navy has recent form over smart subsequent winners Arod and Mondialoiste.
Fabre also runs Elliptique, and Zipzip bids for a five-timer, but those two are four-year-olds, and older horses have taken the race eight times in the decade.
4.15 Longchamp (Prix Daniel Wildenstein) Freddy Head won this last year with the smart four-year-old Solow, and horses of that age are 8-3 over the three-year-olds since 2001.
While Miss France should turn around CD form at Longchamp recently with Sonnerie, she is a bit of a bridesmaid (including second to Integral in the Sun Chariot a year ago), and I prefer Akatea.
If she takes to the sounder surface, she only has to reproduce her Prix du Moulin second to Rervedya, who beat Foiund in the Cornoation Stakes at Royal Ascot.
When you look back through the card, it is clear that Alain de Royer-Dupre is the trainer to follow at Lonchamp this afternoon with Vazirabad, Candraliya and Akatea.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (French nap) VAZIRABAD (1.30 Longchamp)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: PLACE LAY 5pts DUTCH MASTERPIECE, and BET 5pts win WIND FIRE and 1pt win and place GRAND BEAUTY (2.00 Ascot)
BET 6.8pts win WATERLOO BRIDGE (2.50 Newmarket) and 1pt win double the same one with ALICE SPRINGS (2.15 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win STAR STORM (2.35 Ascot)
BET 7pts win MARTLET (2.40 Longchamp)
BET 2pts win and place STILL ON TOP (3.00 Redcar)
BET 3.7pts win EASTERN IMPACT (3.10 Ascot)
BET 12pts win (English nap) ESOTERIQUE (3.30 Newmarket)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: PLACE LAY 5pts PROFESSOR, and BET 3pts win BUCKSTAY and 0.6pts win and place MAJESTIC MOON (3.45 Ascot)
BET 4.5pts win AKATEA (4.15 Longchamp)
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