10-3 NAP AT THE HEART OF BETDAQ GENEROSITY: Daqman had a perfect day yesterday. The BETDAQ layers were all heart and he was able to make a profit of more than 41 points, including from his nap, Perfect Heart (WON 10-3).
DAQMAN’S 52 POINTS PROFIT IN TWO DAYS: Daqman made it five winning bets in two days for a 52-point profit with Saint Roque (WON 11-4) and Rayoumti (WON 3-1) across the cards, Flat and Jumps.
IT’S BRITISH CHAMPIONS (VALUE) DAY: It’s British Champions Pay Day if you are a BETDAQ punter, with fantastic value offers adding up to 103, 103, 102, 101 and 100% successively this morning in the main races, against 113, 122, 116, 114, and 118% Total SP a year ago.
1.45 Ascot (British Champions Long Distance Cup) It’s needed a Group-1 winner (in fact, the Gold Cup winner) to carry off this prize since it moved to Ascot, and that isolates this year’s gold medallist Estimate and Royal Diamond as the stand-outs in this field.
But, though overall ratings have them only 2lb apart, there’s a gulf of three years in age between them, and a little matter of going and distance.
This has never been Royal Diamond’s trip on the Flat, and he was a failure over hurdles. What’s more, he’s never won on ground worse than yielding, so faces a formidable task under Johnny Murtagh.
Harris Tweed is top on official ratings for this, which reveals just how misleading they can be.
When he won the John Porter Stakes in the Spring of 2012, he kept a rating of 115, though he beat only a 107 into second place, and has it again now after returning to form in back-to-back wins at Goodwood in a handicap and a Listed.
Harris Tweed likes soft ground but has raced only once over 2m, when he flopped at York in 2011. The 3.1 offers about Estimate on BETDAQ this morning, as I write, is beginning to look like it should be 1.3! And it gets better.
Aiken has a fine record at Ascot, with form figures there of 1142, all on soft ground and including his second in this race last year, but he’s been a disappointing beaten favourite in two runs this term. Has never won beyond 1m 4f.
The same stable’s Caucus is a Listed-level scorer but needs a sound surface. Caucus, Royal Diamond and Pale Mimosa have all finished behind Ahzeemah, who has beaten Saddlers Rock (no wins on soft) three times this year.
Ahzeemah has little to spare over Times Up (not much room) on York form and he, in turn, has High Jinx and Biographer breathing down his neck (they were 1, 2, 4 in the Doncaster Cup).
The main threat to Estimate is deemed to be Eye Of The Storm, as a three-year-old who loves the mud. But there must be improvement for him to beat Pale Mimosa on a line through Missunited.
Since Pale Mimosa (16.5 this morning) was 10 lengths behind Ahzeemah at The Curragh, that improvement needs to be pretty big. In fact, Pale Mimosa is a comparatively fresh animal here, and her form reads as though she’s a stayer in the making, likely to be transformed by a trip and soft going.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: It’s hard to find fault with Estimate’s chance as three times a winner at Ascot, including the Gold Cup: 1 Estimate, 2 Ahzeemah, 3 Pale Mimosa.
2.20 Ascot (British Champions Sprint) Maarek won last year from Hawkeyethenoo and Sirius Prospect, also on soft, but the first two are now outside the normal age group for winning this. Horses aged three and four have taken 8 out of 10, with the two others to five-year-olds.
And Maarek, like Times Up in the opener, needs to have recovered from his exertions at the Longchamp Arc meeting when he won the Abbaye. That gave him back-to-back wins but, unusually if he’s a champion, he’s never set up a sequence.
The ground is right for Jack Dexter (6.0 on BETDAQ), Kings Stand fourth on today’s course and whose Ayr Gold Cup third was massive, since he was giving nearly a stone to the first two.
Jack headed off Mass Rally in a Group 3 in June, and that one won the big sprint at York last Saturday (again, we have to ask, does today’s race come too soon for Mass Rally?)
If Maarek and Cape Of Approval (19.0 offers) were to repeat their Cork form on soft in the summer, they would just about dead-heat. You can forget Cape’s last two runs (ground against him at the Curragh, missed the break at Longchamp).
Viztoria (7.6 this morning) is an interesting recruit to sprinting. She sparkled at the Doncaster St Leger meeting (Group 2 over 7f) but was too keen behind the magical Moonlight Cloud on Arc day.
Should cope with the quick return to the track, as she’s run only seven races in her life, and is the least exposed of the entire field on number of starts, and entirely unexposed in a sprint.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Viztoria won twice at this trip on heavy ground as a two-year-old and is the danger to Jack Dexter if she has recovered from Longchamp, where Cape Of Approval had no sort of race: 1 Jack Dexter, 2 Viztoria, 3 Cape Of Approval, 4 Maarek
2.55 Ascot (British Champions Fillies And Mares) Talent tries to emulate Dancing Rain, the Oaks winner who took this in 2011.
The English Classics got knock after knock but Talent, a flop in the Irish Oaks on firm ground, bounced back to run up to Leading Light in the St Leger on a softer surface.
The older fillies Dalkala beat at York in the Spring (Group 2) have been overtaken by the three-year-olds since. One of those older fillies, Ambivalent, is ‘the same horse’ as Nymphea on September form.
Dalkala has improved to finally take a Group 1 at the Arc meeting, though not at today’s trip. Belle De Crecy is another improver: she may have beaten a non-stayer (Hot Snap) at The Curragh but remains ‘a dark horse.’
Waila’s record is all on top of the ground but the best progeny of her sire, Notnowcato, won on heavy. An even stronger indication for the surface is the stallion Authorized’s stud record: his progeny have the best percentages on soft ground.
Authorized’s runner here is Seal Of Approval, well backed against The Lark in the distaff St Leger (Park Hill Stakes) at Doncaster but came down after clipping heels inside the final quarter mile.
So, too much hidden talent to get excited about the favourite who, in fact, is easy to back this morning at 4.3 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: In the eight-runner race, I’m looking for a turn-up, from one of the darkest pair, Seal Of Approval (14.0) and Belle De Crecy (11.5).
3.30 Ascot (Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes, British Champions Mile) Excelebration stepped from the shadow of Frankel to win this last year, and end a run of four in a row for three-year-olds.
But the Classc generation looks mighty strong today, fronted by Newmarket Guineas winner Dawn Approach and Olympic Glory, who gave Moonlight Cloud such a scare at Deauville.
Once again, the catch is the soft surface. Ironically, it doesn’t help Soft Falling Rain, ground into submission by Gregorian in August, and this is the softest that Dawn Approach has raced on.
Dawn Approach was behind Olympic Gold at Deauville but Olympic Gold was thrashed five lengths by Maxios in the Prix Du Moulin.
Olympic Glory was sluggish that day and may have needed the run but, until we learn otherwise, Maxios looks wrongly priced at offers of 5.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: 1 Maxios, 2 Dawn Approach 3 Olympic Glory, 4 Gordon Lord Byron
4.05 Ascot (Champion Stakes, British Champions Middle Distance) Cirrus Des Aigles, winner of this in 2011, seems to have taken an age to recover from last year’s drubbing by Frankel, needing five runs to return to form.
Here he is now going for a hat-trick, with the ground in his favour, after scoring at Maisons and Longchamp. But he’ll have to turn the clocks back. More than a century.
Not since 1887 has a seven-year-old won this race. In fact, only one six-year-old has scored (Pride 2006), and Cirrus Des Aigles has not won a Group-1 since the Spring of 2012. But what can stop him on the soft ground he loves?
Farrh has tried this trip in top company three times, no disgrace the last twice to be run out of it first by the King George winner, Nathaniel, then by a certain Frankel, but this is his softest surface yet.
Ruler Of The World redeemed something of his Derby-winning reputation with a head-bob defeat on the soft in a Group 2 at Longchamp.
But French Derby runner-up Morandi had the form franked big time when the winner, Intello, ran third in the Arc to the majestic Treve. Morandi is very much ‘wrong’ in the BETDAQ market at 14.0, as I write.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: As in the fillies and mares, I’m looking for a turn-up, and the offers about Morandi were massive this morning. The other day, I landed my first lay back, so I’m 10 points up. I’ll spend it on Cirrus Des Aigles and bet the younger horses beat him.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 30 points)
BET 15pts win (nap) ESTIMATE, and 1.9pts win and place PALE MIMOSA (1.45 Ascot)
BET 6pts win JACK DEXTER, 4.5pts win VIZTORIA and 1.6pts win and place CAPE OF APPROVAL (2.20 Ascot)
BET 2.8pts win BELLE DE CRECY, and 2.3pts win and place SEAL OF APPROVAL (2.55 Ascot)
BET 7.5pts win MAXIOS (3.30 Ascot)
LAY 10pts CIRRUS DES AIGLES, and 2.4pts win and place MORANDI (4.05 Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES CHAMPIONS-DAY DOUBLES: 3 x 2pts win doubles and 1pt win treble Estimate (2.45) and Maxios (3.30) at Ascot with Dark Lover (5.0 Cheltenham)
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