DAQMAN BIDS FOR A BIG-RACE DOUBLE, ONE LEG A SUPERNAP: There’s a supernap, some bull’s-eye bets and the usual attack on the Pricewise tips on a fascinating Derby Day at The Curragh and a big-field Northumberland Plate, in which at least two horses have been sizeable gambles. The Daqman standings are:
➡️ Supernaps: 12 out of 15 (130 points up to 20 point stakes)
➡️ Daqman 40 Pricewise 20 (140 points clear to 10 unit stake)
➡️ Bull’s-eye naps (4-9) 151 points up to recommended stakes
TRUE DERBY PICTURE REVEALED, SAY THE DAQMAN HEADLINES: Don’t forget your ABC guides to both big races were published on Thursday and Friday. Today’s headlines:
🔹MOOT’S THE MAN-MADE SPECIALIST
🔹 THE TRUE DERBY PICTURE REVEALED
🔹 PINSTICKERS MUST CHECK FOR RAIN
MOOT’S THE MAN-MADE SPECIALIST
3.35 Newcastle (Northumberland Plate ABC Guide Friday) The sustained gamble on Gibbs Hill for the £92,000 prize has hidden another one. Stratum, top of my ABC guide yesterday, has been steadily supported all week.
His only 2m Flat race was last July when he ran clean away with the JLT Cup at Newbury, following third in the Ascot Stakes. He was later badly hampered when favourite for the Ebor off today’s mark. I took 8.0 on BETDAQ.
I’m knocking Gibbs Hill on the grounds that he has not won or placed in a big field or in a Group race, has never run beyond 1m 4f, and not seen a racecourse for two years or so.
Only one of 27 horses so highly rated has won the Plate in 22 years. Apart from that, as they say, he’s good thing!
Just as we seriously have to question him, we must take seriously such a welter of money for a Roger Varian animal, after a season in which such as Defoe and Cape Byron have taken major prizes for him with ease.
Local horse Dubawi Fifty also tries to come back after more than a year off since runner-up in the 2m 4f Ascot Stakes.
Mark Johnston hasn’t won this race for 25 years, now Austrian School, King’s Advice and and Making Miracles, all have to overcome high draws, from which Desert Skyline also suffers.
Austrian School, Group placed to Gold Cup runner-up Dee Ex Bee, is half-brother to Tiger Roll, and Desert Skyline has finished within three lengths of Stradivarius. Making Miracles was a wide-margin Chester Cup winner on the soft.
Mootasadir (BETDAQ 22.0 early mouse) has landed an AW four-timer, and has not been so effective back on turf in the Yorkshire Cup and Belmont Gold Cup.
‘Moot’ is highly regarded but gives his best only on man-made surfaces. Form figures (not grass): 111111.
VERDICT: 1 Stratum, 2 Mootasadir, 3 Gibbs Hill, 4 Making Miracles
THE TRUE DERBY PICTURE REVEALED
5.20 The Curragh (Irish Derby ABC Guide Thursday) Sinndar, Galileo, High Chaparral, Camelot, Australia and Harzand. All landed the Epsom-Curragh Derby double this century. So say the 200 experts.
What they’re not telling you is that the only other Epsom winners to attempt the double in the 20 years was North Light (2004), beaten half a length; Ruler Of The World (2013), 10th; and Wings Of Eagles (2017), beaten half a length.
But only one – just one – winner of the Irish Derby was turning around the Epsom form. That was when Capri, sixth behind Wings Of Eagles at Epsom, won the rematch at the Curragh, with Wings of Eagles third, beaten half a length.
One month ago, such was the tight finish of half-length a nose and two short-heads at Epsom that a bump, a swerve, a tardy start may seemingly have had the same effect on a Derby as it did in the 5f Dash at the same meeting!
So it’s easy to say – and I’ve said it myself – that they were all in a heap at the business end at Epsom and anything can happen at the Curragh today. Well, not according to the stats.
That Capri-type turnaround happened only once. The English winner failed just three times in 20 years, and won six. Even so, he was twice beaten only half a length. There was only one actual flop.
The Epsom bunch finish of 28 days ago is represented by their ratings going into today of 118 Anthony Van Dyck, 117 each Broome and Madhmoon, the rest at least 10lb behind.
Madhmoon His winning would be a fairytale for 86-year-old Kevin Prendergast, whose father, Paddy, won it four times.
I think Mahdmoon, who beat Broome easily as a juvenile, may do so again, without winning the Irish Derby. The unvarnished truth is that he has had three races this year, beaten in them all. He hasn’t shown himself as a winner.
Broome Related to 10-furlong performers and driven clear at that trip in the Derrinstown Stud Derby trial at Leopardstown.
Saved to get the 1m 4f trip at Epsom, he came with a long steady run down the outside but did not have any extra at the finish, no turn of foot, to get into the frame and was only fourth.
Anthony Van Dyck Madhmoon may have ‘clipped heels and stumbled’ as the race review says (I didn’t see anything serious) but Anthony Van Dyck (‘not clear run’) had to be switched, probably losing almost a length in doing so, and asked for a final spurt. He found it. He won half a length, and clearly it might have been more.
VERDICT: 1: Anthony Van Dyck, 2 Madhmoon, 3 Broome, 4 Rakan
PINSTICKERS MUST CHECK FOR RAIN
2.25 Newcastle Encrypted (BETDAQ 12.0) has scored second run back in the last two seasons. Invincible Army (BETDAQ 2.56) didn’t like the Ascot surface but had won a Group 2 at York.
2.55 The Curragh Flight Risk has had a good run; Old Glory a bad one but could bounce back dropped down a mile. I prefer to hope for the rain to give Jessica Harrington the good or easy surface she needs for 6.4 BETDAQ offer Pincheck (each way).
3.00 Newcastle (Northumberland Vase) Charlie Fellowes scored four wins out of six starters a week or so ago and Carnwennan is one of his best, if not his best, a strong stayer, whose form at 1m 6f plus is 12211.
William Haggas’s Canford Heights has been lightly raced a big baby last autumn – and just now maturing as a stayer. I took 5.8 and 8.6 on BETDAQ respectively.
5.35 Newmarket Three-year-olds have won this five years out of six, and Ocean Paradise (2.36 BETDAQ) is one to dive in on today.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Newcastle (win 20)
BET 2pts win and place VON BLUCHER
2.25 Newcastle (win 10, win 20)
BET 6pts win INVINCIBLE ARMY
BET 1.75pts win ENCRYPTED
2.45 York (win 20)
BET 1.75pts win GOLDEN APOLLO
BET 1.5pts win GEORGE BOWEN
2.55 The Curragh (win 20)
BET 3.65pts win and place PINCHECK
3.00 Newcastle (win 30)
BET 6pts win CARNWENNAN
BET 4pts win CANFORD HEIGHTS
3.35 Newcastle (bull’s-eye bets to win 50)
BET 7pts win STRATUM
BET 2.25pts win and place MOOTASADIR
5.20 The Curragh (supernap)
BET 20pts win ANTHONY VAN DYCK
5.35 Newmarket (win 10)
BET 7.25pts win OCEAN PARADISE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
