O’BRIEN FLAG IS FLYING OVER DEL MAR: Magic-man Aidan O’Brien produced his 27th Group 1 of the year out of the Coolmore-Ballydoyle hat when Mendelssohn won the Breeders Cup Juvenile (Turf) at Del Mar last night. He has four more aces to play tonight: Rhododendron, Roly Poly, US Navy Flag and Highland Reel. Daqman hoists the Flag!
BETDAQ VALUE ODDS ARE ALL YOUR OWN: Pricewise is dead! Long live the price-wise Daqman! Slammed 83-22 so far this Flat season, and now robbed of his main early-price guarantees, Pricewise has resorted to SP, which was Daqman’s measure all along! Daqman is 303 points clear but would have been 578-plus at BETDAQ morning offers, which only change when you change them.
BANK-ROBBER BRAQUEUR BULL’S EYE
12.40 Ascot (12 hours to go to the Breeders Cup Classic!): Desiremoi d’Authie is much better than the bare form, according to my Alan King contact.
2.05 Wetherby Front-runners Miss Night Owl (7.8 this morning) and Irish raider Hello Sweetie (15.5) both look big on BETDAQ as they try to make fitness tell over hot-favourite La Bague Au Roi, who has not been seen for 190 days.
2.20 Newmarket Like father, like son! Joseph O’Brien tries to cover all the angles with three runners in this fillies’ Listed. Baroness, Shalailah and Damselfly were all winners on the last day.
Shalailahhas been placed twice behind Happily but there’s no guarantee on breeding that she’ll get a mile. Damslflylooks pretty much exposed.
Baroness, however, has had only four starts, was an emphatic nursery winner at this trip, and is bred to get at least another half-mile! Yet 9.6 on BETDAQ early mouse.
3.00 Ascot Alan King, who won this in 2012, has two top chances today, with the unexposed Midnight Maestro (BETDAQ 16.0), who has won twice when fresh, and Elgin (7.4), who has twice won second run back! All perfectly timed then, Kingy.
Except that Nicky Henderson has just hit a hat-trick and also has two strong contenders: talking-horse Jenkins (BETDAQ 6.4) and the mare Verdana Blue (8.0), who has done well physically over the summer.
3.35 Ascot (Autumn Gold Cup) Junction Fourteen (17.0 BETDAQ offers) is 10lb better for less than five lengths with Antony on their one-two in this race last year.
But Paul Nicholls had one giving them both weight breathing down their necks in third, and here has Braqueur D’Or (9.0) raised in distance to score at this trip on the last day and raised in class today.
Braqueur (‘bank robber’) jumped superbly on the firm ground at Ludlow that day and has had luck with the weather again. Beware of your bank, layers!
RED CAN MAKE CHARLIES OF THEM
3.15 Wetherby (Charlie Hall Chase) It’s 13 years since a horse of double-figure age won this but the ‘old boys’ Cue Card and Coneygree are the big attraction today, two entirely different animals.
Cue Card had won 12 and been placed in a total of 30 chases, the old campaigner, who is an ace when fresh with four wins a second and third in his many seasons racing.
The glass horse Coneygree, living off his 2015 Gold Cup win at Cheltenham, has been seen only three times since, and a year ago was beaten 15 lengths by Cue Card at Haydock on the soft.
So is there a youngster of single-figure age that can pose a threat? The answer is more than one, and it depends which one has improved over the summer.
Definitly Red won the Rowland Meyrick Chase here over the Wetherby CD last December. The third horse home, Blaklion, has a 13lb turnaround in the weights.
He is also 10lb better with Vieux Lion Rouge for a three-lengths-plus defeat in the Haydock Grand National Trial.
Bristol De Mai won the Peter Marsh at Haydock at the turn of the year but gets a penalty and hasn’t run a decent race since.
It’s a question of whether Blaklion, who doesn’t often win first time back, has survived his exertions in the Grand National (fourth); if he has, he’ll never have a better chance than here at the weight.
We also question whether Coneygree can be held together; whether Cue Card can give away the eyears (he’s 11 now and only two of that age have ever won this race since 1980).
I’m picking Defintly Red (BETDAQ 9.0) whose form first run back is 1111221 and his returns on good to soft or better since the 2014-15 season is 111 still standing.
MAKE MEMORIES FROM MOONSHINE
7.00 Del Mar (Breeders Cup Juvenile, Dirt fillies) The favourite won in 2015, but she was surrounded by scorers at 28-1, 40-1 and 66-1 in three other years.
In all those cases, Group-1 losers improved past the existing Group-1 winners (who today are Moonshine Memories, Separationofpowers and Heavenly Love).
But it’s hard to see Maya Malibu turning round big Belmont deficits with Separationofpowers and Caledonia Road, even blinkered first time, or Princess Warrior recouping five lengths with Heavenly Love.
Nor how can Alluring Star and Piedi Blanchi overcome Moonshine Memories, who was magnificent at Santa Anita, extending her advantage over Piedi Blanchi, which had been a hard-won half a length at Del Mar over a furlong shorter in September.
AURELIA SUPERNAP FOR SPRINT REVENGE
7.37 Del Mar (Breeders Cup Turf Sprint) Aidan O’Brien has had a couple of cracks at this (Washington DC,who tries again, and Starpspangled Banner) but they’ve been toes in the water compared to today’s dive into the deep-end.
Nothing before like today’s revenge head to head, with Lady Aurelia trying to reclaim the crown she lost to Marsha in the Nunthorpe.,and now with home advantage at around even money on BETDAQ
Even the supporting cast is strong, with Pure Sensation beaten only a nose and a head in this race last year, and nearly-horse Cotai Glory (26.0 on BETDAQ) running his best race of the year on the last day. The track should suit him
8.14 Del Mar (Breeders Cup Dirt Sprint, fillies and mares) Just as Wesley Ward got the two lowest stalls in the Juvenile Turf Sprint so this all-aged dirt sprint has Chad Brown in gate 1, Chad Brown in gate 2.
But I’m looking for a shock result out of stall 6, where Proper Discretion, much improved in 6f sprints (2-2), is entitled to shoot forward again on breeding, upped to 7f. I pinched a bit of 86.0 on BETDAQ early mouse!
TRUST IN STOUTE REPEAT AT 10.5
9.00 Del Mar (Breeders Cup Filly And Mare Turf) England has won this six times since the day in 2003 when Sir Michael Stoute saddled Islington, the first of his three winners, culminating in Queens Trust scoring last year (Lady Eli second, Avenge third), despite a tardy start.
Queens Trust has disappointed since, while Lady Eli has notched a recent hat-trick on firm ground like today’s
Queens Trust (10.5 BETDAQ offers), again has a high draw, but less time to make up the ground, as the race is a furlong shorter this yea.
The extreme outside stall (14) goes to Rhododendrom bidding to break Aidan O’Brien’s duck in the race at offers of 4.9.
Rhododendron won the soft-ground Opera (Wuheida fourth) at the Arc meeting in Paris on the last day. A year ago she won the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket (firm).
9.37 Del Mar (Breeders Cup Sprint, Dirt) The horse named after Bobby Frankel had slightly better luck than the one 15 years ago in Ireland named after Half Of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. It won only a bumper.
Baffert (the trainer I mean) won this dirt sprint two years running with Miidnight Lute (2007-8) and hs every expectation of doing the same back-to-back trick here with last year’s winner Drefong.
27.0 STORM HAS TREMENDOUS SPEED
10.19 Del Mar (Breeders Cup Mile, Turf) Here’s the reason why we started this card with the Goldikova Stakes. She won this race three years running (20080-10) for Freddy Head.
In fact, the French have won it six times since 2002, and Zelzal (11.5 on BETDAQ) for Jean-Claude Rouget has been one of the gambles of the week (20-1>10-1), with the ground in his favour after three soft-ground dates (he was withdrawn from one) in the autumn.
In fact, you can delete his first start of the season (given too much to do) and that takes you back to his four wins out of six in 2016. Hidden horse. Fresh. Well drawn in 6, adjacent to Woodbine Mile winner World Approval, who is better off with the runner-up there, Aidan O’Brien’s Lancaster Bomber.
Stablemate Roly Poly (BETDAQ 7.0) three times a Group 1 scorer in Europe, and Richard Fahey’s Queen Anne winner Ribchester (4.6) have obvious form chances but are drawn wide in 12 and 10 respectively.
Suedois (from 8) cannot be discounted having won the Mile at the big Keenland meeting four weeks back from front-runner Heart To Heart and Ballagh Rocks.
But best outsider is Midnight Storm (27.0), third last year and with tremendous speed sited to del Mar and a jockey who knows every inch of the track
10.58 Del Mar (Breeders Cup Juvenile, Dirt) Bolt d’Or, likely to be the hottest favourite of all 13 Breeders Cup races at Del Mar this weekend, has the outside 11 gate in the 2m-dollar Juvenile for colts.
Bolt d’Or won the Del Mar Futurity before a near-eight lengths romp at Santa Anita, with trainer Mick Ruis appreciating that it’s West Coast form that counts on Dirt.
Drawn in the one stall, yet easy to back against the ‘golden bolt’, is Aidan O’Brien’s US Navy Flag (9.6 BETDAQ), who landed the Dewhurst and Middle Park double at Newmarket, and also comes to the race after three in a row.
Flag’s sire, War Front, was top class on Dirt in the US, and his top-earning son, Declaration of War, went down only a nose and a head for O’Brien in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Dirt at Santa Anita in 2013.
The Juvenile has the makings of a match of potential champions, with Bolt d’Or being talked about as 2018 Triple Crown material in America, and US Navy Flag one of the 2,000 Guineas favourites.
ULYSSES NOW THE BIG IMPROVER
11.37 Del Mar (Breeders’ Cup, Turf) And most recent of Aidan O’Brien’s half dozen Breeders Cup Turf successes give him form figures in the last six years of 131011.
He’s employed Seamie Heffernan (Highland Reel last year) and Ryan Moore for the last three wins but it is Moore who goes for the back to back bid by Highland Reel.
Success two years running for the same horse has eluded O’Brien. Nicholas Abbey won the race in 2012 but was only third the following year, while Found, the 2015 heroine, tried the double last year and was third to Highland Reel.
The only dual winner in successive years was Conduit (2008-9), trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who now sends over Ulysses, never out of the frame since his debut and winner of the Eclipse and International Stakes.
But Ulysses is back up to 1m 4f, which he hasn’t tried since his fourth in the same Breeders Cup race last season.
He has only about a length and a half to make up on Highland Reel and the handicapper says he will do it easily. Having raced off 116 to Reel’s 123 that day, he is now reckoned a 127 horse
DAQMAN’S BETS (12 hours of racing)
12.40 Ascot (to win 20)
BET 10pts win (English nap) DESIREMOI d’AUTHIE
2.05 WETHERBY (to win 30)
BET 4.5pts win MISS NIGHT OWL
BET 2pts win and place HOT SWEETIE
2.20 Newmarket (to win 20)
BET 2.25pts win and place BARONESS
2.25 Ascot (to win 20)
BET 4pts win MARRACUDJA
3.00 Ascot (to win 20)
BET 3pts win VERDANA BLUE
BET 1.25pts win and place MIDNIGHT MAESTRO
3.15 Wetherby (to win 30)
BET 3.75pts win and place DEFINITLY RED
3.35 Ascot (win 50)
BULL’S EYE BET: 6.25pts win and place BRAQUEUR D’OR
BULL’S EYE BET: 3pts win and place JUNCTION FOURTEEN
7.00 Del Mar (to win 20)
BET 7pts win MOONSHINE MEMORIES
7.37 Del Mar (SP)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win LADY AURELIA
8.14 Del Mar (win 20)
BET 2pts win FINEST CITY
BET 1pt win and place PROPER DISCRETION
9.00 Del Mar (win 20)
BET 5pts win RHODODENDRON
BET 2pts win QUEENS TRUST
9.37 Del Mar (win 20)
BET 12pts win DREFONG
10.19 Del Mar (win 20)
BET 2pts win and place ZELZAL
BET 1pt win and place MIDNIGHT STORM
10.58 Del Mar (win 30)
BET 3.5pts win and place US NAVY FLAG
11.37 Del Mar (SP)
BET 6pts win ULYSSES
00.35 Del Mar (win 20)
BET 3pts win WEST COAST
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