DAQMAN LINCOLN OUTSIDERS BOTH 21.0 ON BETDAQ: With firmish ground at Doncaster this morning, only Eastern World and Haqeeqy stood their ground in the Lincoln Handicap market, where his long-shots were both 21.0 this morning. Daqman hopes for more money and ITV Racing rave notices for Summerghand in the Cammidge Trophy to contract the price and make him a viable lay. The race could revolve around a front-runner. See:
🔹 BOUGHEY BROCKLESBY BOUNTY
🔹 MONTATHAM NAP FOR HAGGAS
🔹 ARCIC VEGA IN A HANDY STALL
🔹 BRUNCH LINCOLN VALUE AT 21.0
🔹 JUST WATCH THIS ONE GO…
TOMORROW: More racing at Doncaster. More Early Birds. More bull’s-eye tilts at the layers.
BOUGHEY BROCKLESBY BOUNTY
⚠️ HEADS UP Early Bird trainers who prepare for Doncaster and beyond are a precious clue to winner finding in the first few weeks of the season. To them you’d add those in peak form on AW.
Winning Doncaster trainers on Lincoln day since 2010: Richard Hannon 5, Roger Varian 5, Richard Fahey 4, David O’Meara 4, Charlie Appleby 2, Michael Dods 2
⭕ 1.25 Doncaster (Brocklesby Stakes) Look just outside the market lead: 11-4 to 6-1 has had six winners at SP in eight years.
Betdaq win Trainer George Boughey has had 17 winners on AW this year, striking at 25%. Forca Brasil (BETDAQ 3.75) merges strong sprinting families.
MONTATHAM NAP FOR HAGGAS
⭕ 2.00 Doncaster (Doncaster Mile) Stalls 1-4 have won eight out of 10, albeit mostly with small fields.
Montatham (William Haggas), Father Of Jazz (Roger Varian) and Bounce The Blues (Andrew Balding) will give us trainerform clues to the chances of Ascension, Grove Ferry and Johan in the Lincoln.
Montatham’s only defeat in his first four starts last season was when second in the Royal Hunt Cup, but he got his revenge on the winner the very next race.
Press comments that he needs rain are not borne out by the form: on firm-good 13121120; on soft and slow 124.
Father Of Jazz has had three straight wins on AW this winter and was not disgraced when third in the Winter Derby at Group-3 level. Roger Varian has won three of the last four Miles.
The filly Bounce The Blues (from the one stall), dual winner at Naas last summer, finished the season for her new trainer, Andrew Balding, placed in the Sceptre (7f) here at Doncaster (Group 3) and second in a Newmarket Listed mile.
Space Traveller has the best form at top level: won the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and a Group 2 at Leopardstown but that was in 2019. Raced just the once last season, sixth in the Queen Anne.
Betdaq back and lay Father Of Jazz (8.2) races strongly and was too keen for the 1m 2f of the Winter Derby; the drop back to a mile will suit but there is no obvious pace on and Callum Shepherd may have no choice but to make it. Back and lay.
Betdaq win William Haggas’s Addeybb was pipped a length by Verry Elleegant in the Group 1 at Rosehill early this morning. Five-year-olds are four out of six in Mile and the Haggas hope, Montatham (5.0), is 2-2 after a winter break.
ARCTIC VEGA IN A HANDY STALL
⭕ 2.35 Doncaster (Spring Mile) STATS: 4yo have won eight out of nine; no winning outright favourite; 9st 5lb to 9st 10lb six wins.
DRAW: They tend to race along the middle with the winner finishing down either flank (stalls 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8 and 15, 16 twice), come-from-behind horses in the main bunch failing to get through and the high draw thrown too wide.
Acquitted, who won on heavy as a two-year-old, has been gelded after poor performances since.
The grey Arctic Vega (gate 7, claimed off) for Andrew Balding came smoothly through in a lower-class race the last day; in the adjacent stall, Poet’s Lady also has low-level form, but both have shown good attitudes.
Mascat (out of 17), runner-up to Brentford Hope in the autumn, would provide a Lincoln pointer. Amaysmont (2) has decent form on AW but moderate on turf.
Into Faith seems to need it soft. Dubai Souq (missed the cut in the Lincoln), a class-2 winner on soft, has tried cheekpieces and a visor (both left off).
Chris Dwyer is 2-3 and new recruit Global Esteem, who looked useful in the summer, had a quiet run back after joining the stable. Stall 18 a bit high.
Overwrite, sixth in the Britannia, might improve for being gelded but has even more work on from 20.
A strong fancy in the market during the week was dual Doncaster winner for James Bethell, Artistic Rifles, the only CD winner in the field. Had a prep for this first big-race tilt for Edward Bethell but high in stall 21.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 9.3 Artistic Rifles, 11.5 Mascat, 13.5 Arctic Vega, Global Esteem
BRUNCH LINCOLN VALUE AT 21.0
⭕ 3.10 Doncaster (Lincoln Handicap) REPRISE: ABC guide: Daqman Thursday. Ante-post bet and Early Bird: Friday.
GOING: Good to firm, good in places.
The ground seems to be against Brentford Hope, Graphite, History Writer, Hortzadar, King Ottakar, Kynren, Librisa Breeze and Ouzo, who all prefer a softish surface.
DRAW: winners by stall (2010-19): 1*, 16, 12, 3*, 3*, 15, 22*, 20, 10*, 17 (* going soft).
The draw looks unhelpful to Ascension, Brentford Hope, Danyah, Hortzadar, History Writer, King Ottakar, Kynren, Revich and River Nymph.
PACE: Revich (from 8) should tow along Ascension, Haqeeqy then River Nymph. On the other side Dashing Roger (22) may live up to his name and take Eastern World (19) then Born To Be Alive (20) into the action.
1️⃣ HAQEEQY Three wins out of four. John and Thady Gosden book 7lb claimer.
2️⃣ BRUNCH Back-to-back double on good ground. BETDAQ 21.0 this morning.
3️⃣ ASCENSION (Daqman Friday: 16-1 taken but 21.0 now on firmish ground.
4️⃣ EASTERN WORLD Topped ABC stats list but quality of Meydan win in doubt
JUST WATCH THIS ONE GO..
⭕ 3.45 Doncaster (Cammidge Trophy) Summerghand is the people’s horse, as designated by Pricewise and ITV Racing.
Win or not, that means he’s not value and you oppose him, as you do most horses the crowd wants: the crowd by definition cannot get rich.
Summerghand won the Stewards Cup last year but they spent five points in 2020 (1-6 at evens) before that race and have spent seven points since (0-7). He needs everything to drop right, and is now in my book as a ‘once a year horse.’
Brando is on the same page. In fact, he didn’t get his win last year, and he hasn’t got his ground today.
Betdaq back and lay Three-year-olds don’t usually win this but Just Frank (BETDAQ 6.9 this morning) is a tearaway who could get an unassailable lead over horses who could need a bit of cut at their age (Brando 9, Mr Lupton 8, Summerghand and Tis Marvellous 7)
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.25 Doncaster (win 8)
BET 3pts win FORCA BRASIL
2.00 Doncaster (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win MONTATHAM
2.15 Kempton (win 10)
BET 1.75pts win DARK PINE
2.35 Doncaster (win 20)
BET 1.6pts win ARCTIC VEGA
2.50 Kempton (win 10)
BET 4pts win GOOD BALL
3.10 Doncaster (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 2.5pts win BRUNCH
Ante-post at 16-1
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.25pts win ASCENSION
Saver to win 10
BET 2.25pts win HAQEEQY
3.25 Newbury (win 10)
BET 1.5pts win HUNNY MOON
3.45 Doncaster (win 10)
BET 1.75pts win JUST FRANK
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