A DAQMAN WINNER EVERY DAY THIS WEEK: NO LOSING DAYS: Yes, it’s five in a row for winner-a-day Daqman; no losing days and a profit for the week so far of around 10 points. Yesterday’s winner was Uncle Bryn (WON 5-2 from 4.5 on BETDAQ). The sequence is:
WON 5-2 UNCLE BRYN (Friday)
WON 6-5 NEENEE’S CHOICE (Thursday nap)
WON 5-4 TEMPER TRAP (Wednesday)
WON 1-1 HEY TEACHER (Tuesday nap)
WON 11-2 HARRANDA (Monday)
40.0 FRANKIE DETTORI FOR FRONT RUNNER TO WIN SPRINT: Frankie Dettori, who made all on Uncle Bryn at Haydock yesterday, could try to make a procession of the Sprint Cup there today at an enormous 40.0 on BETDAQ and hang on in there for a place. ‘I’m up for the craic here,’ says Daqman, ‘rather than bet at odds on or, indeed, oppose the odds-on favourite with something he’s already beaten!’ Standings:
DAQMAN 51, PRICEWISE 30
SUPERNAPS 15-19 (79%)
LAYS LOGIC 13-18 (72%)
FORTUNE COOKIES 10-25 (40%)
THREE-YEAR-OLDS STARMAN THREAT
⭕ 3.30 Haydock (Haydock Sprint Cup) ABC stats: See Daqman Thursday.
Three-year-olds are five out of seven in this. They were beaten last year when the second-season failure behind the winning six-year-old was none other than Art Power (fourth).
That, and the fact that he’s won only on soft or Tapeta, crosses him off my short-list today. Last year’s runner-up, Glen Shiel, also does best with plenty of cut in the ground.
The other older horses have been beaten by Starman, or are behind him on collateral form. Whether Starman can be stopped depends on whether there’s a three-year-old capable of keeping pace with the front-runner in their midst, Nando Parrado, and then delivering a challenge.
Nando Parrado himself won the 2020 Coventry here on a sound surface, and has tackled horses of the very highest class over further since then: Campanelle, Sealiway and most recently Sacred in the Hungerford.
Blinkered first time that day at Newbury, he went clear after a furlong, and didn’t give up his lead until the final stages of the 7f Group 2.
That he was stone last (18 of 18) behind Creative Force in the 7f Jersey Stakes is no more relevant than when Starman was 14th of 16 for the Champions Sprint title here on soft.
In the July Cup, Creative Force was too far out of his ground early, and consequently used up his energy to try to get to Starman, but he’d tracked the leaders when he scored at both Newmarket and Newbury in May.
Emaraaty Ana gave weight to the winner of a very fast Nunthorpe but that was 5f not six and the winner was a three-year-old.
Daqman’s verdict: I see Nando Parrado and Frankie Dettori setting them a task which only the classy Starman on speed and the 7f Group winner Creative Force on stamina are likely to handle. The others close up in the betting need the rain which saw Starman vulnerable at Deauville.
His top-of-the-ground form since his maiden is 111. Creative Force’s only defeat on firm was the one by Starman, so it’s entirely a question of whether he can lie up closer to the pace this time and make a race of it.
I’ll be yelling home the front-runner, if indeed it is Nando Parrado, hoping he can land place odds not far short of Creative Force’s win odds. Neither may beat Starman but I’m not fond of odds-on shots in sprints, where a length lost at the start or when pushed out wide can decide the result.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 40.0 Nando Parrado
DANNY MAY JUST BE GOOD ENOUGH
⭕ 1.45 Haydock (Superior Mile) Lord Glitters at last sheds the Group-1 penalty he earned at Royal Ascot in 2019 which, on the face of it, would have closed down Real World, had he lost it before a Group 3 at York the last day.
That Ascot triumph in the Queen Anne (in which he was only fourth this year) was his sole success in England in 16 starts over three years.
But first-time blinkers on My Oberon need to obliterate a near-12lb gap between the two on York form, less so for Bell Rock (about 7lb) who was fourth and he holds Maydanny on their one-two at Newmarket form in May.
But Maydanny has been on the upgrade since and, as winner of the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood, deserves this crack at a Group 3, with Mark Johnston runners always likely to make small fields tactical.
Joe Fanning will have his eye on Artistic Rifles, who made all at Hamilton, but is a sitting target for Maydanny and Lord Glitters.
BETDAQ value 4.6 Maydanny
FORM POINTER TO WINGS OF WAR
⭕ 2.05 Kempton (Sirenia Stakes) A race which fillies rarely win – none since 2011 – sees them 6-2 numerically strong over the colts today.
But it’s just as rare for winners to have had fewer than four or five runs going into this, and that stat suggests one of the fillies Nymphadora, Eve Lodge or Honey Sweet will win.
If the Lowther is any guide, Nymphadora will set the pace; Honey Sweet was a big drifter overnight, looking exposed for her four runs rather than gaining in competence. Eve Lodge was beaten at odds on the last day when dropped to a class 5.
Clive Cox trains Dark Swansong, who ran up to Hierarchy at Salisbury, so he knows all about that one, as he saddles Wings Of War to try to recoup some of the £98,000 he missed by half a length to Ever Given in a big-field Sales race at York.
BETDAQ value 3.2 Wings Of War
CROWLEY WON’T MISS HUKUM
⭕ 2.40 Kempton Hukum should beat his only serious rival, Hamish, who was got ready for the Ebor but was withdrawn for want of rain.
Whether Polytrack will serve him just as well – it’s his first AW start – remains to be seen. Jockeys reported that it was riding slow last night.
Though Hukum appears to have improved, with back-to-back Group-3 strikes, he has remained on a rating of 114 for all seven starts (including today’s) since the 2020 St Leger.
But he’s won here at Kempton, and Jim Crowley comes to the London track instead of going to Ascot for such as Alfahdel, one of his regular rides.
LARK RISE: CANDLEFORD WELL IN
⭕ 3.10 Ascot Roger Varian goes for a hat-trick in this, and his fourth win in nine years, with the big horse Alfaadhel, who gets his first decent ground and steps up in trip.
Wahraan, who is out of a sister to Oaks winner Was, should also appreciate the 1m 4f. Wahraan had an uncomfortable run at York (slipped at the start; hampered late on).
Barn Owl’s Beverley strike boosts his Ripon conqueror, Chalk Stream, but the lightweights (8st 3lb to 8st 8lb) are four out of six in this, and Chalk Stream’s William Haggas stablemate, the improver Candleford, has apprentice ace Farragher in the saddle for this handicap debut.
BETDAQ value 8.2 Candleford
SUNRISE: SMART STOUTE FILLY
⭕ 4.20 Ascot Sunrise Valley has done everything easily so far in just three races this year, typical of the patience Sir Michael Stoute always brings to a filly’s career.
This handicap is part of his tender plotting, with a black-type bid left for the autumn with this to bring her on.
Kestenna on the other hand has already been tried in the pattern and failed, and is here in this handicap for a confidence booster before another Listed target.
Ready To Venture has won only her maiden, always a bad sign. Rising Star and Passionova are class-4 winners and aiming higher has found them out so far.
That leaves us fearing only Sunrise Valley’s Stoute stablemate, Star Seeking. Too soon to condemn her as a maiden-only winner, and Ryan Moore is riding, though I suspect he is owner Michael Tabor’s choice, as opposed to Star Seeking being Ryan Moore’s choice!
BETDAQ value 4.8 Sunrise Valley
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Haydock (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win MAYDANNY
2.05 Kempton (win 20)
BET 9pts win WINGS OF WAR
2.40 Kempton (supernap)
BET 20pts win HUKUM
3.10 Ascot (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win CANDLEFORD
3.30 Haydock (win 50, place win 12)
BET 1.25pts win and 2.25pts place NANDO PARRADO
4.20 Ascot (win 12)
BET 3pts win SUNRISE VALLEY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
