4-1 STRIKE FOR A HAT-TRICK OF NAPS: Daqman completed a hat-trick of naps at the three-day Chester festival yesterday, giving him five winners at the meeting for a profit each day totting up to 30.50 points. In the process, he successfully opposed two odds-on favourites with his lays logic against New London (2nd 4-11) and Magellan (3rd 5-6).The naps were:
WON 4-1 SOLID STONE (Friday, nap)
WON 6-4 STAR OF INDIA (Thursday, nap)
WON 11-8 EVER GIVEN (Wednesday nap, BETDAQ 4.0)
DAQMAN HIDDEN HORSE: BETDAQ 21.0: Derby trials at Lingfield, a big handicap at Ascot and a final handicap hurdle at Haydock. It’s a big, big Saturday, with a hidden horse at 21.0.
Headlines:
WALK CAN STOP O’BRIEN RUN
TRY STOWELL: IT’S NOT SO AASY
SHIFT THE KEY TO COURSE FORM
HERITAGE IS THE HIDDEN HORSE
WALK CAN STOP O’BRIEN RUN
⭕ 2.40 Lingfield Derby Trial Now it gets complicated! If Ballydoyle wins the trial today, it’s a boost for Godolphin.
Aidan O’Brien won all three Classic trials at Chester but the colt he saddles at Lingfield this afternoon, United Nations, was beaten by Charlie Appleby’s Nahanni in the Blue Riband at Epsom.
United Nations only has to come on, as his stablemates have done this week, and beat two of Charlie Appleby’s today, and he moves up the Epsom ratings but takes Nahanni with him, and Nahanni is not the number one for the boys in blue.
O’Brien and Ryan Moore last took this Lingfield trial with Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck (2019). Moore is riding at 43% (20-46) and O’Brien turning out winners at a rate of 38% (14-47).
Charlie Appleby matches that strike rate of 38% but he won only a maiden at Chester and what was thought a routine addition to his Derby squad (New London at 11-4 on) was turned over with ease by an O’Brien colt.
Appleby has the hot favourite today, Walk Of Stars, backed up by a Frankel colt, Natural World. Both have scored in their prep races for this, Walk Of The Stars taking in the
Newbury conditions race won by Hurricane Lane.
United Nations is already pretty special as a Galileo able to win on debut over 7f and, after shaping as a stayer in the Blue Riband, he will have Ryan Moore’s confidence this afternoon. But Walk Of Stars (even money) has to win to make any sense of the Derby form.
⭕ 3.15 Lingfield Oaks Trial Any one of this big field of fillies could make sudden improvement now that the sun shines but, though she ran green, I was impressed with Emily Dickinson at Naas (1m 2f).
I shall be surprised if she doesn’t fly like a bird and make a big impression on the Epsom Classic market after this. Hope is a thing with feathers.
TRY STOWELL: IT’S NOT SO AASY
⭕ 2.20 Ascot The ratings make Al Aasy (117) a standout; 8lb clear of his field. Hamish did well yesterday, but Al Aasy’s trainer, William Haggas, caused a ripple not a wave this week, and the five-year-old has to recover his Spring form of last season, two Group-3s at Newbury, which didn’t really work out.
The Gosden runners have been needing a race and course-and-distance winner Stowell (BETDAQ 4.4), who made a decent return, third, in the John Porter, is my pick here under Frankie Dettori who rides Ascot so well.
⭕ 3.30 Ascot One debate in this is whether overnight-punt Don’t Tell Claire, CD winner in September over Rising Star (third) and Serenading (bumped, not clear run, seventh), can confirm the form.
Claire tried to step up into Listeds after that but without success, unfancied at big prices, so that the Ascot win looks isolated as a fluke.
Auria and Soft Whisper did win their Listed. Whisper is fit from a season in Group-2 company at Meydan, as Saeed Bin Surror tries to keep his own Godolphin flag flying, but he also runs Stunning Beauty, another campaigned in Dubai.
I shall have my pound on Strawberri (Gleneagles out of a Rock of Gibraltar mare) who was πrogressive as a three-year-old and looks an interesting prospect for Roger Varian. BETDAQ 5.8
SHIFT THE KEY TO COURSE FORM
⭕ 4.05 Ascot (Victoria Cup) STATS: Horses aged 4 and 5 have won 17 out of 20 this century, with 14 winners carrying less than 9st. DRAW: Eight of the last 10 winners came out of a double-figure stall; only one favourite won; eight out of 10 had a prep race; no claiming riders won.
Those stats give you just four: Alrehb, Darkness, Gioia Cieca and Royal Pleasure. Stats fans will want to look into them.
Alreb (coming out of 24) has progressed this year: winner of class 4, then class 3, and finally a narrow defeat in class 2. In that race at Haydock the last day, Gioia Cieca kept on to be fourth.
A soft-ground winner in France, Darkness (22), who ran in the Lincoln as winners of this often do, has had cheekpieces then a visor fitted the last twice without much improvement.
Fresh (stall 13) won a handicap at the corresponding Ascot meeting last year after a prep at Kempton. He returned at Kempton less than three weeks back and was the one for the money when books were opened for this.
One Ruler (19) was runner-up in the Doncaster Futurity as a 2yo to the subsequent Irish 2,000 Guineas winner, Mac Swiney. Sixth in both Newmarket Guineas and Epsom Derby, he was third behind Royal Hunt Cup winner, Real World, at Meydan in January (Path Of Thunder fourth).
The Terpinator (12) was the business for the Newbury Spring Cup but showed once again he is a 7f horse, and could do better today.
Magical Morning (21) was an excellent third in the Balmoral here in the autumn, after a head defeat at York under Dettori. Among the low numbers, CD-winner Dark Shift is the improver with potential. His Ascot form is 1411.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 9.6 Fresh, 14.5 Dark Shift, 21.0 Magical Morning
HERITAGE IS THE HIDDEN HORSE
⭕ 3.00 Haydock (Swinton Hurdle) The fat lady sings today (I think) but can anyone remember the Jumps form?
Results of this race show that chance plays a bigger-than-usual part: winning weights across the range from 10st 4lb to 11st 12lb; winning SPs from 9-2 to 25-1.
Where do the winners come from? In the last few years, most were losers (two fell; one unseated!) at the Aintree Grand National meeting on their previous start.
Anna Bunina and West Cork, the Scottish Champion Hurdle one-two are brought closer together because this is a handicap but it’s Milkwood, fifth that day and not put into the race until late on, who has the biggest benefit from the handicapper.
Sam Twiston Davies prefers Milkwood to his multiple winner for the same yard Peltwell, or maybe he just didn’t fancy getting down to 10st 2lb at this time of year.
The hidden horse is Miss Heritage – in foal to Nathaniel – missed Aintree for this. She had Anna Bunina behind at Doncaster in January.
Severance was second at Aintree in the same race that threw up the winner of the Swinton 12 months ago. Kept on well that day and tinkering with his wind surgery could help him again.
BETDAQ value 6.1 Severance, 13.5 Milkwood, 21.0 Miss Heritage
🇺🇸 11.57 Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby) The UAE Derby winner, Crown Pride, has been wowing the work-watchers the way the elegant Japanese colt has found super fitness and stride.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.20 Ascot (win 10)
BET 3pts win STOWELL
2.40 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 10pts win WALK THE STARS
3.00 Haydock (win 50 x 2, win 20)
BET 4pts win MILKWOOD
BET 2.5pts win MISS HERITAGE
BET 4pts win SEVERANCE
3.15 Lingfield (win 10, nap)
BET 10pts win EMILY DICKINSON
3.30 Ascot (win 10)
BET 2pts win STRAWBERRI
4.05 Ascot (win 50 x 2, win 20)
BET 3.75pts win DARK SHIFT
BET 2.5pts win MAGICAL MORNING
BET 2.25pts win FRESH
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
