PANIC STATIONS: ‘GO’ FOR GOLD AT SANDOWN: Daqman reckons it’s a day for the boys, with claimers fancied to fight out the finish of the Sandown Gold Cup, last big jumps race of the season, on Away We Go (‘thrown in’) and There’s No Panic, a ‘massive’ offer at 19.0 on BETDAQ.
TWO WINNERS FOR DAQMAN WITH ONE TIP? Daqman declared for Trumpet Major (WON 3-1) in the Sandown Mile yesterday and reckoned him ready made for the Lockinge at Newbury in May.
THAT’S HIS NECK ON THE LINE! But his luck was out in two photo-finishes: his nap, Line Of Reason (2nd 10-3), went down a neck in the sprint at Doncaster; then Vesper Bell (2nd 7-1) was beaten a head in the stayers’ chase at Punchestown.
1.30 Sandown Don McCain is the season’s leading jumps trainer, numerically, going into the last day on 141, but sure to finish just short of £1m, way down on the Henderson and Nicholls hauls.
Don brought Lexi’s Boy down to win the first running of this Sandown opener last year. Now he tries for back-to-back wins via Counsel, with ‘fingers crossed.’
No great show of optimism because he was disappointed by a poor run at Cheltenham in the Fred Winter, when Ptit Zig was third. Not every horse likes the course and Counsel won either side of that flop.
Somemothersdohavem also failed at Cheltenham, while Bob’s World fluffed the big question at Aintree, also with two wins in ordinary company.
John Quinn is the season’s leading trainer on strike rate (29%): with Somemothersdohavem, McVicar and Whipcrackaway all better off at the weights, John is claiming off Calculated Risk.
It’s a hard race to open in, but BETDAQ punters have a double advantage: it’s commission free and this morning’s offers added up to only 106% total probability.
The Calculated Risk is much reduced, and I’ll have my pound on Dean Pratt to make his 7lb tell on a horse that doesn’t seem ground dependent like some in the field.
2.05 Sandown More Cheltenham failures here: Black Thunder, Mr Watson, Barbatos, Stopped Out and Quaddick Lake, with Richie McLernon on Mr Watson (sad to see the great Tony McCoy miss this final day).
I haven’t mentioned the winner so far, if punters are right: they piled into Minella Forfitness this morning, 10.5 bar one. He bypassed Cheltenham and won at Aintree under David Bass, with Barry Geraghty (right) on the wrong horse.
Geraghty, rider for the first two legs of Minella’s hat-trick, is back on board the Henderson hot-pot today, with a 9lb hike in the ratings. Henderson puts blinkers on General Miller – 26.0 on BETDAQ this morning – and Richard Johnson has been booked for another 26.0 offer Grandads Horse (only his second run back). Both were behind Minella Forfitness at Aintree but both have reasons for stepping up on that.
Further down the handicap, there’s a Pipe horse, Home Run, ‘loose’ off a mark taken below 10st by a claimer but I’m told he’s quirky.
2.40 Sandown (Celebration Chase) Paul Nicholls is 11301 in this, including last year’s winner, Sanctuaire, who tries again, along with the third and fourth Dan Breen and French Opera.
Sanctuaire is favourite on 4.7 in a 104% orange, as I write, having been kept fresh for the race but with newly-crowned champion-trainer Henderson fielding three runners to try and stop Nicholls taking the edge off his Celebration.
But his trio are all old-timers for a 2m chase at speed on drying ground at Sandown. Sanctuaire is still only seven.
So, too, Sire De Grugy, who has yet to fulfill the promise of his second to Captain Conan in November and has 21lb to find on official figures.
3.15 Sandown (Gordon Richards Stakes) Sir Michael Stoute is 1114 in this, and John Gosden has scored twice since 2010.
Gosden has just begun to show a bit of form in the last six days with three winners but Dick Doughtywylie needs to find two stone –literally 28lb – on top-rated Al Kazeem.
Both Al Khazeem and the Stoute hope, Eagles Peak, had one run, one win, last season and both will have been ‘got up’ specially for an assault on this race.
Sir Henry Cecil has made a flying start and Thomas Chippendale, who found the St leger trip too far, is back to 1m 2f here. Ektihaam goes well fresh and has been gelded.
But, returning to my opening remarks, I can imagine Stoute improving Eagles Peak, as he so often does with older horses, and the fact that he remains in training, tilting at Group prizes is a reassuring for a bet.
And I shall ‘leave a pound’ on the 21.0 Dick Doughtywylie: what on earth is he doing in this, putting his handicap mark at risk, if he has no chance. We’ll see.
3.50 Sandown Gold Cup This is slightly down on quality this year, with Tidal Bay winning it off 154, carrying 11st 12lb, last year. The same stable’s top weight with the same burden, Michael Le Bon, is on 149 this time around.
The handicap has contracted (23lb ‘long’ last year; only 15lb this year) so it’s the battle of the bulge, with nine horses in mid-handicap separated by only 3lb.
Philip Hobbs has trained two winners since 2006 and Balthazar King, my Grand National number one (it seems so long ago), is preferred by Richard Johnson over Duke Of Lucca, who has generally only won in small fields.
Balthazar King (19.0 on BETDAQ as I write) had a terrific run at Cheltenham – four wins out of five still standing – until taking to the cross-country discipline and beaten only by Uncle Junior over the banks.
Having seen how badly Auroras Encore ran last week, the worry about ‘King’ today is that he hasn’t recovered from Liverpool, where he raced with his usually zest until fading on the second circuit.
On the other hand that was only his third run in a year, his first since November. Only Michel Le Bon, Mr Moss and Quentin Collonges can claim to be that fresh.
Saint Are ran above himself in the Grand National, finishing seventh, and could be one for the great Aintree race in the next couple of years.
Quentin Collonges and Mr Moss were one-two in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster in March, Quentin’s third win in a row on Town Moor, and he may well have a one-track mind.
Despite the prizes he has plundered at Punchestown this week, Willie Mullins sends over Irish Grand National runner-up Away We Go, who seems to act on any going. He is thrown in.
Away We Go could be said to have 12lb in hand on the handicapper, since he’s up 7lb since nthe weights were published (before the Irish national) and has aq 5lb claimer in the saddle.
There’s No Panic is also claimed off; he at last gets his chance over a distance of ground on going he loves. His form on good, still standing, in the last two years is 1211321. He is massive at 18.5 on BETDAQ.
Hadrians Approach still jumps novicy; Well Refreshed has been hit by the handicapper, which is what has stopped Hold On Julio; Same Difference’s Cheltenham win was in a slow time.
So it is that my Sandown Gold Cup 1-2-3 is Away We Go, There’s No Panic, and Balthazar King.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.4pts win CALCULATED RISK (1.30 Sandown)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) MINELLA FORFITNESS, and 0.8pts win and place on each GENERAL MILLER and GRANDADS HORSE (2.05 Sandown)
BET 5.4pts win SANCTUAIRE (2.40 Sandown)
BET 5pts win EAGLES PEAK, and 1pt win and place DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE (3.15 Sandown)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 4.2pts win AWAY WE GO, plus 1.6pts win on each BALTHAZAR KING and THERE’S NO PANIC (3.50 Sandown)
DAQMAN TARGETS: I’ve been out of form, albeit losing photo-finishes, so have to make this a standard day, reduce my jackpot bets to the one big race, and target just one win today to get back most other stakes.
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