KYPRIOS WINS FRENCH GOLD BY 20 LENGTHS: FORTUNE COOKIE Kyprios saved the day for Daqman at Longchamp yesterday, when he went so far clear he thought he’d done enough to win the French Gold Cup. He had done more than enough; even after veering badly left in the straight, he finished 20 lengths up.
WON 7-10 KYPRIOS (FORTUNE COOKIE, 1.94 taken on BETDAQ)
THE ARC WILL BE A TESTING GALLOP Slow times were returned yesterday but Daqman reckons Titleholder will make them gallop in the Arc this afternoon and set it up for two gutsy performers at 6.4 and 9.8 on BETDAQ.
Headlines:
SHARTASH TOO HOT FOR ANTARCTIC
KELINA’S QUEEN OF THE FILLIES
ALPINISTA ARC TEST FOR TASSO
PARISIENNE THREAT TO NASHWA
MO CELITA LOVES LONGCHAMP MUD
SHARTASH TOO HOT FOR ANTARCTIC
⭕ 1.15 Longchamp (Jean-Luc Lagardere Grand Criterium) Aidan O’Brien, who has won this eight times, including with Rock Of Gibraltar, has already had The Antarctic placed in France in both the Morny and the Robert Papin, with a Group-3 strike at Deauville in between and second in the Middle Park only eight days ago.
The Antarctic has twice been beaten by stablemate Blackbeard, two lengths both times; whereas Irish-raider Shartash was pipped just a short-head by the same horse at the Curragh.
What’s more, Shartash has been placed behind the two top two-year-old colts in my personal ratings, Little Big Bear and Al Riffa, who are officially 124 and 115. Shartash didn’t get the rub of the green behind Al Riffa.
LAYS LOGIC: The Antarctic has been revised upwards to 113; Shartash to 111. I think it should be the other way round, and I’m quoting his trainer when I say The Antarctic is a sprinter and 7f could stretch him, particularly on deep ground.
BETDAQ value: 3.9 Shartash
KELINA’S QUEEN OF THE FILLIES
⭕ 1.50 Longchamp (Marcel Boussac) Now for the fillies’ 2yo test over a mile; this time it’s four wins to date for O’Brien, including a subsequent Arc winner, Found.
His Never Ending Story is well drawn but looks exposed alongside the twice-raced Frankel fillies, Kelina and Ardent. Maxime Guyon gets off Shalromy for Kelina. He’s ridden them both with Kelina coming out best.
Ardent’s form has been boosted by Ashiya but that one was more than five lengths behind Kelina when they met in August.
Wed won well over 7f and should get the mile, but is out in gate 12. Nine winners from the last 10 were drawn between 2 and 7.
Blue Rose Cen (stall 5) could be anything (she’s a first foal by Churchill); unbeaten on soft ground (3-3)
BETDAQ value 4.9 Kelina
ALPINISTA ARC TEST FOR TASSO
⭕ 3.05 Longchamp (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe) STATS: FORM, RATINGS and DRAW: see Thursday and Friday Daqman.
SUMMARY: The last 17 winners had already won over 1m 4f. Six of the last nine came out of stalls 2, 3 (twice), 4 and 6 (twice), and 11 out of 15 places went to stalls 1 to 7 in the last five years.
GOING: The ‘very soft’ return is an understatement; all yesterday’s races were run slow; three of them 14.96 secs slow, 12.68 and 12.62 slow.
LAYS LOGIC
▪️ Al Hakeem, Grand Glory, Luxembourg, Sealiway and Vadeni have never won over 1m 4f.
▪️ Only Torquator Tasso, Sealiway, Vadeni, Luxembourg and Mishriff have a rating high enough to win, based on the last 10 years.
▪️ Al Hakeem, Deep Bond, Do Deuce, Onesto, Stay Foolish, Titleholder and Westover have never won on soft ground.
▪️ Well drawn: Al Hakeem, Alpinista, Deep Bond, Do Deuce, Mendocino, Vadeni and Westover.
1-2-3 VERDICT
We need a ‘lazy’ horse with power and guts, Alpinista who doesn’t do things in a hurry but stays on.. and on. Or one that’s done it all before, Torquator Tasso who defied both a wide draw and heavy ground last year.
What we are doubtful about are three-year-olds; they have to be really good to win an Arc (Enable, Golden Horn) and this year’s Classic form has not been of that level.
1️⃣ TORQUATOR TASSO won it from a high draw last year, scything through (going ’heavy’) to beat champion mare, Tarnawa, who had landed a hat-trick of Group-1s and was racing off 120, with the highest rated three-year-old third, also off 120 but getting 6lb from the winner.
In the last nine years, two have done the double already (Enable and Treve). In fact, four Arc winners in nine years had finished in the first four the previous year.
The five-year-old entire, who has stall 18, won it from 12 last year, and his jockey today, Frankie Dettori, scored from 15 in 2001 and 14 in 2015.
2️⃣ ALPINISTA She has the same 120 rating as last-year’s runner-up, Tarnawa (five wins in a row), and similarly has set up a sequence (seven in a row), including defeat of Torquator Tasso on good ground.
Has the plum draw in 6 but the last five-year-old mare to win was in 1937. Likely to get a lead from relentless galloper, Titleholder, who has never encountered going softer than good.
3️⃣ LUXEMBOURG Whatever race you are picking in, you should always look for the improver, and Aidan O’Brien has produced this one-time Derby favourite from lost cause to first choice in the betting. Luxembourg, Alpinista and Vadeni are all Fortune Cookies.
4️⃣ Al Hakeem The hidden horse. Jean-Claude Rouget is convinced that the French Derby fourth can stay the extra quarter-mile and get his revenge on the winner, his stablemate Vadeni, and he deliberately comes here fresh. Both have low draws.
5️⃣ Sealiway Soft-ground horse, fifth last year as a three-year-old.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 9.8 Torquator Tasso, 6.4 Alpinista, 5.8 Luxembourg, 16.5 Al Hakeem, 27 (from 42) Sealiway.
PARISIENNE THREAT TO NASHWA
⭕ 3.50 Longchamp (Prix de l’Opera) Nashwa and La Parisienne, separated a short-neck in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks), swerve the Arc for this, Nashwa by choice, La Parisienne missing the cut.
Rosacea (3rd), Agave (4th) and Fall In Love (5th) were four lengths or more behind them in the Diane, with Rosacea and Fall In Love both badly drawn and both hampered during the race.
Above The Curve is rated 4lb behind Nashwa, who was third to Tuesday in the Epsom Oaks.
Tuesday was only a length off Alpinista in the Yorkshire Oaks but her form is in and out, and she was fourth when La Parisienne was third in the Vermeille (soft) three weeks ago.
BETDAQ value 3.7 Nashwa, 4.6 La Parisienne
MO CELITA LOVES LONGCHAMP MUD
⭕ 4.25 Longchamp (Prix de l’Abbaye) Five out of seven winners have come from stalls 2 (twice), 3 and 5 (twice), including on heavy last year via A Case Of You, who has a totally different race to run this year from gate 19.
Juvenile filly The Platinum Queen has been second twice in top Group races, the penultimate being more than two lengths runner–up to the 120-rated Highfield Princess in the Nunthorpe, but a two-year-old has not won the Abbaye since Sigy (1978).
Mo Celita, fourth in this last year on heavy, and out of gate 3, and her progressive stablemate, Tees Spirit (6), appear to be well placed to get involved.
Tees Spirit beat Erosandpsyche a nose before that one ran three-lengths second to Highfield Princess in the Flying Five (Curragh, soft), with Flotus just behind in third.
Teresa Mendoza is nicely drawn in 5 but has been beaten in all four races on the soft, and wears tongue-tie and cheekpieces. Runner-up to Mitbaahy at Newbury and the form was boosted, albeit at Listed level, by Manaccan (third) yesterday.
BETDAQ value 9.4 Flotus, 14.5 Mo Celita
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.15 Longchamp (win 12)
BET 4pts win SHARTASH
1.50 Longchamp (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win KELINA
3.05 Longchamp (win 50, win 30 x 2)
BET 5.5pts win TORQUATOR TASSO
BET 5.5pts win ALPINISTA
BET 2pts win AL HAKEEM
3.50 Longchamp (win 12)
BET 4.4pts win NASHWA
4.25 Longchamp (win 50, win 30)
BET 3.75pts win MO CELITA
BET 3.5pts win FLOTUS
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