LUXEMBOURG FAVOURITE FOR FABULOUS ARC: The final ingredients of a fabulous Arc de Triomphe on Sunday are filled in today with the draw and the forecast going. Daqman relates the top 10 runners to the stalls stats. Luxembourg (gate 8) was favourite for Ireland this morning, with runners for England, Germany, Japan and France next in the market out of stalls 6, 18, 10, 2.
FORTUNE COOKIES IN LONGCHAMP BIG TWO: Daqman naps at Ascot today, hoping to fill his wallet for tomorrow’s opening day at Longchamp, featuring FORTUNE COOKIE Kyprios in the French Gold Cup. Fortune Cookies have three in Sunday’s big race: Alpinista, Luxembourg, Vadeni.
ARC PLUM DRAW FOR ALPINISTA
⭕ 3.05 Longchamp, Sunday (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, 1m 4f)
GOING very soft. WINNER BY STALL (9 years): 6, 15, 3, 14, 2, 6, 3, 4, 12. ELEVEN out of 15 places went to stalls 1 to 7 in five years. Best suited by the draw in stalls order are:
1: Mendocino Held on to beat odds-on 2021 Arc winner, Torquator Tasso, in his trial at Baden-Baden a month ago.
The one stall has produced three placed horses (one race at Chantilly) but not the winner in the last five years. Of the two at Longchamp, In Swoop was beaten a neck in 2020; Sottsass was third in 2019.
2: Vadeni The markets went for Vadeni when the French Derby winner came out of the hat in gate 2 (four winners have come from 2, 3, 4 in nine years at Longchamp).
3: Do Deuce Keen but settled well when winning the Japanese Derby on only his fourth start. Just the sort for stall 3, but appeared not to relish the soft ground at Longchamp, when held up, fourth, in the Prix Niel trial.
4: Al Hakeem Another who raced keenly but accepted restraint; fourth, nearest finish, to Vadeni in the French Derby. Showed his powerful cruising speed on soft the last day from a bad draw at Deauville, and his way of running gives him every chance, stepped up in trip.
5: Deep Bond Stayer who beat Broome at Longchamp last September but was annihilated (14/14) on heavy ground in the Arc, despite a low draw (5). Twice beaten by Titleholder this summer.
6: Alpinista The plum draw, with two wins for stall 6 in the decade (2012 and 2018), presents seven-in-a-row Alpinista with every chance. She went clear of Torquator Tasso at the Hoppegarten last summer before that one won the Arc.
7: Westover The Frankel colt travelled strongly to win the Irish Derby and looks the type to lead into the straight.
12 Alenquer is a rear runner who likes it soft and could bounce back in first-time blinkers.
15: Sealiway Soft-ground horse, fifth last year as a three-year-old, is now Francis-Henri Graffard’s hope after the elimination of Verry Elleegant.
18: Torquator Tasso Raced on the outside from stall 12 to win last year and has been handed a similar task from which to do the double, already achieved by Treve and Enable in the decade.
BLESS MY SOUL: ODDS AGAINST
⭕ 2.00 Ascot I fancy a pound on Tomfre for an in-form trainer, Ralph Beckett, and experienced amateur jockey, Serena Brotherton. Has dropped down the handicap since runner-up to Able Kane a year or so ago, giving that one 13lb; now receiving 2lb. Tomfre 11.0 on BETDAQ.
⭕ 2.15 Fontwell Raised a grade after a hat-trick, favourite every time, with trainer and jockey both striking at 67%, yet Soul Icon is bottomweight here, if you deduct Harry Kimber’s claim.
Denable is 2-2 since Brendan Powell’s been in the plate, and Buko’s Boy usually puts up a fight, but Soul Icon won in a canter over the CD last month. Nice to get odds against (2.3 on BETDAQ)
MALAKAHNA WEATHER WATCH
⭕ 2.35 Ascot LAYS LOGIC: The favourite, Aggagio, has won on the Flat only at Goodwood, and trainer Gary Moore has gone three weeks without a winner from 20 runners.
FORM: Mark Johnston has farmed this race with three winners and a second in the decade, and Temporize could go well in a typical Johnston front-running role.
Gumball is eight now and won’t have the speed for this unless there’s give in the ground. Withdrawals this morning suggest not.
Justus last won for Andre Fabre on very soft in Dieppe last June, and Malakahna for Christophe Ferland about the same time in Toulouse.
There were excuses for Malakahna the last day at Ripon and today is probably instead of next Saturday’s Cesarewitch unless she gets a penalty for this; she currently needs 20 to drop out at the five–day stage.
Malakahna is very much the class horse of today’s race and her 74 rating is 51lb behind her hurdles mark, achieved in the Spring with a hat-trick culminating in a Grade-3 fillies’ juvenile at Cheltenham in April. She likes good ground so again you need to watch the weather.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.8 Malakahna
A WARRIOR EVERY TIME ON AW
⭕ 6.15 Newcastle Runners-up the last twice – both of them – Rozalia and Melburnian should give a solid account but clearly need everything to go right. Arabian Warrior on the other hand is a standout on AW form.
This is the Warrior’s turf form since his debut: 0000. And this his AW form: 12314, still standing, including success here when gambled on, a winning favourite, in June. BETDAQ 5.2
2.00 Ascot (win 10)
BET 1pt win TOMFRE
2.15 Fontwell (win 10)
BET 7.5pts win SOUL ICON
2.35 Ascot (win 12, nap)
BET 4.25pts win MALAKAHNA
6.15 Newcastle (win 12)
BET 3pts win ARABIAN WARRIOR
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