2016 CLASSIC COLTS RACE TODAY: The racing focus switches to 2016 as France runs a top two-year-old trial, the Prix Morny, won eight times in nine seasons by English or Irish raiders, and Ireland features the Futurity which Gleneagles took a year ago on his way to Classic glory.
MORE BETDAQ MORNING VALUE: Though a generally bleak betting Saturday with shock results, BETDAQ value was to the fore again when, after Friday’s 12.0 winner (at 5-1 SP) and 22.0 place (at 12-1 SP), Daqman spotted another York treat, Botany Bay (4th 14-1), at 23.0.
DAQMAN’S 220 WINNING BETS: His win and place showed a profit – even at SP – to take him further ahead of Pricewise. That takes the score to Daqman 79, Pricewise 11 for the current season, with the overall totals 220-84 to Daqman, and another clash today at Deauville.
GUT FEELING ABOUT THE MORNY GROUND
2.40 Deauville (Prix Morny) Top two-year-old tests today in France and Ireland feature colts at The Curragh bidding to follow up Gleneagles’ Futurity win last year.
And, here in the town of James Bond’s Casino Royale, John Gosden, star of this year’s Derby scene in England and Ireland, tries to throw another ace with Goodwood star Shalaa.
Richard Hannon has already snake-eyed the French with Gutaifan’s success in the Prix Robert Papin, so this appears to be an early showdown between two English high-rollers.
Or is it? Shalaa and Gutaifan, who beat yesterday’s Gimcrack winner in the Robert Papin, are in the same ownership and Shalaa’s participation depends on the ground. Soft with more rain forecast.
Gay Kelleway’s Zebstar, not disgraced in the Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh, will give us a line to Air Force Blue, currently 2,000 Guineas favourite for those punters who like to give their money away nine months early.
French opposition looks limited, though Viserano is first foal of a Sinndar mare by Rock of Gibraltar, and the filly Tourny is experience at Group-3 level.
But she was beaten at Chantilly in June by Fly On The Night before that one was a good eight lengths off Gutaifan in the Papin.
RIBBONS PRIMED FOR ROMANET REPEAT
3.10 Deauville (Prix Jean Romanet) Four-year-olds have won for the last seven seasons, including last year’s success for James Fanshawe’s Ribbons, who is back for more.
She’s run some good races this season without winning, invcuding third in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh in a blanket finish with Diamondsandrubies and Legatissimo.
We Are has faced yet more formidable opponents, behind Cirrus des Aigles in the Ganay and second to Treve at Saint-cloud.
She is said to be best on a sound surface after beating Ribbons in the Opera (good) at the Arc meeting, but she was first past the post in the Saint-Alary on very soft.
The headstrong Avenir Certain, the 2014 French 1,000 Guineas and Oaks winner, third in the Falmouth at the recent July Meeting at Newmarket, should get the cover she needs today in a field of 11.
Avenir Certain was closer to Amazing Maria at Newmarket than was Bawina at Deauville earlier this month.
Madame Chiang loves the mud and ground it out to won the champion fillies’ and mares at Ascot last October. Fourth in the King George on soft a month back.
I make the ratings: Avenir Certain 114, Ribbons 114, Madame Chiang 113, We Are 113, Bawina 111, Odeliz 110. I took 4.3 Ribbons, who’s never been out of the frame in 11 starts and has always had this as her target.
3.45 Deauville (Prix Kergorlay) Mark Johnston has won this twice since 2003 and his Queen Alexandra winner, Oriental Fox, will probably try to make all.
Needs an extreme distance, so pace is essential if he is to crack Alex My Boy from last year’s winning stable. May have to be his own.
FORM POINTS TO SHOGUN IN FUTURITY
2.40 The Curragh (Royal Whip) Aidan O’Brien has won this with four odds-on shots since 2007, and Found will start short again today after her Curragh 1,000 Guineas second got a huge boost from the winner, Pleascach, at York.
Found was runner-up at Royal Ascot to another 1,000 Guineas winner, the Pouliches heroine, Ervedya. The step up in trip should suit today, and she gets weight all round.
However, I’m going to be perverse, because of the morning market and the small field, and oppose the bridesmaid Found (form 222) with a pound on stablemate Ol Man River (6.0). I see him setting the pace in a tactical race, and he might stay in front.
3.40 The Curragh (Futurity Stakes) O’Brien won this with Gleneagles a year ago, and has two strong shouts today in Air Vice Marshal and Shogun.
There’s the little matter of Herald The Dawn, brother to New Approach, who has already beaten Ballydoyle’s Galileo colt, London, a couple of lengths or so at Naas.
But London had been a good six lengths behind Shogun earlier, so this is a fascinating contest and, despite the small field, could be a Classic pointer again.
4.10 The Curragh (Irish St Leger Trial) Leading Light won this for Aidan O’Brien a year after his Doncaster St Leger and before being pipped for the Irish version by Brown Panther last September.
O’Brien has won the trial with an English Leger horse, Tusculum (2006), but he was only sixth ain the Doncaster Classic (rerouted to York that year).
Dermot Weld, who scored in this with the two fine stayers, Vinnie Roe and Vintage Crop, saddles Good Tradition, blinkered first time.
But I’ll stick with O’Brien. This year he has both an older horse, Kingfisher, and a three-year-old, Order Of St George.
Second in the Ascot Gold Cup after winning the Saval Beg Stakes, Kingfisher has shown his best form on a sound surface.
He looked streets ahead of Order Of St George until stablemate Bondi Beach, who pipped ‘George’ a short-head in the Curragh Cup, was narrowly beaten in the Great Voltigueur this week.
Order Of St George leapfrogged Kingfisher in the BETDAQ orange this morning, and rates the nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 4pts win OL’ MAN RIVER (2.40 The Curragh)
BET 6pts win RIBBONS (3.10 Deauville)
BET 4.5pts win MY FAVOURITE THING (3.20 Brighton); if lose, 2.6pts win (stakes saver) LILIAN BAYLIS (3.50 Brighton)
BET 13pts win SHOGUN (3.40 The Curragh)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) ORDER OF ST GEORGE (4.10 The Curragh)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win treble FOUND (2.40 The Curragh), RIBBONS (3.10 Deauville) and ORDER OF ST GEORGE (4.10 The Curragh)
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