ASCOT LAYS HAT-TRICK LANDED: Three consecutive winning lays – two of them hotpot SP favourites – brought Daqman’s Royal Ascot winning total to 10 (including a place bet on one of the winners). All three lays finished out of the frame.
6-0 FINAL SCORE TO DAQMAN: One of the lays plus the place from another huge BETDAQ offer (3rd 26.0) brought his week’s total to 6-0 over Pricewise in races nominated by the Racing Post tipster (season’s total now 43-9 to Daqman; overall 184-82).
CUPS DOUBLE: 12-1 AND 10-1: Daqman’s big winners came at 12-1 in the Gold Cup and 10-1 in the new race of the meeting, the Commonwealth Cup. His week’s wins in time order were:
WON 5-2 Acapulco
WON 12-1 Trip To Paris (win and place)
3RD 16-1 Marma’s Boy (from 18.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 10-1 Muhaarar (from 14.5 on BETDAQ)
WON 5-2 Aloft
3RD 12-1 Sixth Sense (from 26.0 on BETDAQ)
WON (place lay) Collaboration (unplaced 8-1)
WON (lay) Telescope (unplaced 6-4 favourite)
WON (lay) Wicklow Brave (unplaced 5-4 favourite)
PLAY THE BETDAQ MARKET PLACE FOR VALUE
Which camp do you belong to? Do you bet win only or do you bet win and place? There are those who say win and place is like backing one horse twice when you can save the place stake to bet on another horse!
But the place player will tell you that a 20-1 shot that finishes second or third can be as good as a 5-1 winner
I went win and place on Sixth Sense yesterday because it was 26.0 in the win offers on BETDAQ early mouse, and the place would show me a good profit (anywhere between three and six times outlay) including paying for my win stake.
Pricewise also picked Sixth Sense but declared only a win. In his case (he claimed he could get on at 33-1), it was a waste of a cracking good 8.25-1 place bet.
He then repeated the error with win only Sennockian Star (2nd, 20-1 in his column), missing out on a 5-1 ‘winner’ from the place bet. Doesn’t he want to win?
Admittedly, I was smarting when my win and place on Mount Logan was lost when he was hampered (how do they do it on a track that wide?) and missed third place by a head (4th 11-1 from 17.0 on BETDAQ).
My rule is that, if a horse is worth betting to win at a big price, it is worth backing for a place at the place offers or at a quarter or fifth. I usually make 12-1 or 14-1 the cut-off point, betting win only if offers are below that price level.
But that’s in big fields. In smaller fields, a place bet may also be good insurance if there are offers which cover the win stake (should the horse be placed without winning).
And don’t forget a place in an eight-runner field gives you three chances of a return.
I also grabbed a point against Pricewise with a successful lay. Again, why doesn’t he lay a horse? Why be so far behind the times?
There would be value in laying short odds in any field where you have some good horses running for you, but particularly odds far too short in big fields when you have an entire cavalry on your side!
It is a negation of value to waste winning opportunities, win, place or lay when they present themselves, and to ignore the arrival of exchange betting after all these years is to pander to bookmakers.
If it’s a tricky race, I would indeed prefer to bet two or more horses instead of spending my money on a place stake.
BETDAQ made that possible at Royal Ascot with most lists in the orange adding up to 100-103% per race, morning after morning.
But bookies were in money-grabbing mood right from the off, taking out chunky percentages on the opening day: 127, 129 and 135% (twice) Total SPs.
Returns included 127 and 130% Total SP on Wednesday; 124 and 134 on Thursday, and 130 and 129% (twice) on Friday.
But I’ve left the worse crimes against punting humanity until last. They came in the Royal Hunt Cup (a staggering 143%) and the Britannia Stakes (an obscene 148%), taking nearly half your potential winnings away.
COOL TRAINER AND THE GO-GETTER JOCKEY
One horse to take out of Ascot? Which one would it be? Well there were a dozen or more which I will reveal when the time is right but, if you are hunting for value, you have to steer clear of the obvious.
My single and singular nomination would be Fireglow, only fourth in the Albany (6f) for two-year-old fillies but finishing at a galvanised gallop from a very poor start.
Fireglow is by Teofilo, who’s got an awful lot of good horses including Irish Derby winner, Trading Leather, and the dam’s side suggests staying powers up to 2m.
So it was quite remarkable that she should have won first time out over 5f at Catterick and, as a Catterick winner, equally worthy of remark that she should reveal this flying finish on the fastest Flat stage of them all, Royal Ascot, in top-quality company.
Mark Johnston’s two-year-olds were on fire all week – he won the Coventry with Buratino – and his achievement which ranks among all the best training feats at Ascot was that he should capture both that 6f juvenile crown and the near 2m 6f of the Queen Alexandra Stakes with Oriental Fox.
Ryan Moore had an amazing sequence of winners but, for sheer perfection, I give you the rides on Undrafted by Frankie Dettori in the Diamond Jubilee and on Ervedya by Christophe Soumillon in the Coronation Stakes.
Winning trainer Wesley Ward said of Dettori after he pipped the Aussie sprinter Brazen Beau: ‘He’s a cool sitter and a go-getter in one jockey.’
FOOLSIES STEP IN AT THE PONTEFRACT 17.0
PONTEFRACT: Mark Johnston should take the opening juvenile event with Dawaa (2.10), whose Newcastle conqueror was not disgraced, if outpaced, in the Chesham.
The Castle Stakes (3.40) is impossible with Connecticut climbing two grades and trying to bridge the gap since last October; Gatewood needing cut in the ground; Red Galileo having won only his maiden.
I’ll have a punt win and place, with two chances of a place return at 5.0 offers this morning and 17.0 the win in the orange on front-runner Only Orsenfoolsies. If he can get enough daylight between himself and those nearly horses, he might last out, if only for second.
Two chances in five, and the Racing Post ratings have him in the mix, only a point behind Red Galileo. I’m asking for trouble with my headline but – altogether now – ‘Lovely jubbly!’
Samtu in the Pontefract Cup (4.10) is another who might be handed an easy lead, He ran away with a race, six lengths and six, at Doncaster over the Leger distance there.
Again trying to make all, he was run out of it at Goodwood, stepped up to 2m, but was beaten less than two lengths, giving more than a stone to the winner.
PLACE INSURANCE FOR DANDY GOWRAN BET
GOWRAN PARK: Yet another front runner, Dandyleekie (3.45) is dropped in class for this by last year’s winning trainer, and BETDAQ place offers mean that I can save the outlay on my 5.8 win bet if he fades into second or third.
DAQMAN BETS (staked for strength 1 to 9)
BET 7pts win (nap) DAWAA (2.10 Pontefract)
BET 1.5pts win and place ONLY ORSENFOOLSIES (3.40 Pontefract)
BET 3pts win and place DANDYLEEKIE (3.45 Gowran Park)
BET 5pts win SAMTU (4.10 Pontefract)
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