16.0 BETDAQ GAMBLE SECOND AT 17-2: It was literally neck and neck yesterday for value bets by daring Daqman, who watched both Body And Soul (2nd 17-2 from 16.0 on BETDAQ) and Duke Of Clarence (2nd 14-1) beaten a neck in big handicaps.
BOLD LAY BEATS THE FAVOURITE: Daqman’s big coup was to find three major reasons to oppose Parbold in the featured Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. His lay came up (Parbold 3rd 5-4 favourite).
HE’S IN FORM FOR EPSOM WEEK: The place part of Body And Soul was still enough to beat Pricewise, and he now leads the challenge 35-9 on the Flat (74-21 overall) on the eve of Derby week after seven naps out of nine, including a 9-2 shot.
BUT FIRST THE FRENCH DERBY: Chantilly leads the field with the first Derby in Europe today, and again Daqman dares a 14.0 outsider. The race before that contains his banker nap.
It’s the noblest backdrop for the sport of kings. But the castle is a chateau and the Louis who opened Chantilly racecourse in 1834 and launched its Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) two years later was not a king but the Duc de Bourbon. All went well until 2005.
Step forward Baron Edouard de Rothschild, president of France Galop (the modern Jockey Club), who destroyed the French Derby and its premier trial, the Prix Lupin, by cutting the classic to 10 furlongs and weeding out the Lupin by the roots.
His Baldrick plan? To boost the Grand Prix De Paris, stepping it up to 1m 4f, and running it in July in direct competition with the King George at Ascot. The French have cause to beef at the baron.
Half the idea started fairly well. Good Grand Prix results, measured by the Arc of the same year, for Rail Link (won at Longchamp), Zambesi Sun (3rd) and Cavalryman (3rd) but eighth and 12th are the best returns in the last four seasons.
Meanwhile French Derby winners since the change have managed a third, a fifth, an 11th, a 15th, and a 15th again in the Arc. Not so allez France!
Apart from that one Grand Prix winner, where have the Arc heroes come from? Ireland (2), England (1), Germany (1), and two fabulous French fillies (Zarkava and Treve) out of their three victories, with the colts of the Eclipse-style Jockey Club and the Grand Prix at their lowest.
1.20 Chantilly (Prix de Royaumont) Andre Fabre, who hasn’t added to his 10 victories in this since 2007 has half the field this afternoon.
His best chance seems to be Delivery, by that one Grand Prix winner to go on to take the Arc (Rail Link), but he’s up against a smart sort in Ball Dancing, half-sister to one of those filly Arc winners, Zarkava. With Fabre having two others of potential in the race, it’s hard to find value.
2.30 Chantilly (Prix de Sandringham) Named after The Queen’s stud in Norfolk. It’s plus longtemps (2001) since Fabre won this, and the man to be reckoned with in recent seasons is Jean-Claude Rouget (three of the last five winners).
But I shall desert both in favour of Alain de Royer-Dupre and the Dansili filly I picked for the French 1,000 Guineas. Despite an unlucky 15 out of 16 draw, Veda was only pipped in the Pouliches because of the poor pace.
Now that Christophe Soumillon can be extra confident of her getting the trip on soft ground, he can lead if he has to. Veda has already beaten Fintry and Fabre’s CD winner still looks the main danger.
3.15 Chantilly (Prix Du Jockey Club) Though winners in the last three seasons were gated 10 (twice) and 16, a massive eight of the nine horses placed second and third have come from stalls 1, 2, 3, and seven of the last 10 to triumph were from 4 to 10.
From those stalls 1, 2 and 3 today comes the German 2,000 Guineas third, Stillman, now blinkered first time. But you wouldn’t normally expect Cologne form to come close to Longchamp and the French 2,000 winner, Karakontie, who has Galiway breathing down his neck, expected to do better over the extra two furlongs-plus.
But the colt in the race with the best credentials on trials prestige is Yorkshire’s The Grey Gatsby. You can’t do much better than win a Dante. Or can you?
The punter’s dilemma is: was this a good Dante, in which case the Newmarket Guineas – The Grey Gatsby only 10th – was a great one, or does his seeming step up in form prove that the York field was so much rubbish?
Since it was Gatsby’s seventh race, and the handicapper has had him on 108 or 110 for the last four of them, the official view is that the Dante was not much cop, with a Windsor-maiden winner second and an odds-on favourite not running his race in third.
It must also be the view of trainer Kevin Ryan. It is most unusual for a modern Dante winner to swerve the Epsom Derby.
In fact, colts with four or five races on their CVs have won this four times in the last seven years; those as lightly raced as Shamkiyr, Nolohay, Ayrad, Wild Chief and Gonna Run only once.
Sea The Stars (Shamkiyr) has yet to produce a worthy son and Gonna Run has the same ‘could be anything’ look but also with breeding that doesn’t set the world alight.
Trials form this year (Greffulhe) and last (Saint-cloud Criterium) suggests that another Rouget runner, Prince Gibraltar, is a better bet.
Only one French stallion has broken the recent run of English, Irish and American sires in this Derby, and again Prince Gibraltar is in the clear, with his daddy, Rock of Gibraltar, having got more than 50 Group-1 winners.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: To bet on potential (Shamkiyr, Gonna Run) you need a big price and, since you’d have to back both, 10.0 wasn’t enough for me this morning.
With only four runs and his good Guineas form, the Galileo colt, Galiway, suggests that he has as much chance of improvement and 14.0 this morning was big. He’ll have to work from stall 13 but that’s what he needs to bring his stamina into play. Prince Gibraltar the saver.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points unless stated)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) VEDA (2.30 Chantilly)
BET 1.5pts win and place GALIWAY, and 1pt win (stakes saver) PRINCE OF GIBRALTAR (3.15 Chantilly)
BET 6pts win TONY DINOZZO (3.00 Fakenham)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
