TODAY: FRENCH DERBY VALUE: There are two Derbys in seven days at Chantilly and Epsom. It’s the French version today and Daqman, leading 34-8, meets Pricewise in their value challenge in the 12.55 big sprint and then the Derby itself, the Prix du Jockey Club (2.45), at Chantilly. He also finds one in the German 1,000 Guineas.
NEXT WEEK: EPSOM DERBY ABC: Look out next week for Daqman’s Derby countdown, including his famous ABC guide to the big race at Epsom. It’s a Classic. And it’s bound to throw up something unexpected in the BETDAQ market.
MUTHMIR MAY FOLLOW UP ADAAY SPRINT SHOCK
12.55 Chantilly (Prix du Gros-Chene) England has won five out of 11 of these and has a fine chance today through last year’s Portland winner, Muthmir, his trainer, William Haggas, having bagged a big sprint yesterday with Adaay, and currently showing white-hot form figures of 14103111312013.
Without Muthmir this is more like a reunion. Rangali beat Catcall last year; Catcall was runner-up the year before to Spirit Quartz; and Stepper Point, second in 2012 has been fifth and fourth since.
Rangali was second in the Abbaye (Spirit Quartz fourth) but has been difficult to get right this Spring, and the main threat to Muthmir may come from Robot Boy, if the ground doesn’t blunt his speed, as it did Limato yesterday.
Robot Boy is a better horse than when behind Stepper Point in the Flying Five at The Curragh last September, but Chantilly has the same weather mix as in UK – ‘cloudy with occasional rain and sunny periods’ – which ruined my home predictions for firmish-ground form yesterday.
1.25 Chantilly (Prix de Royaumont) I can’t find an English winner in the history of this race but William Haggas could take it here and complete a quick double.
The professional bet at Chantilly today would be to back Muthmir, if lose Toujours L’Amour in this one.
Toujours’ only defeat last season was behind Irish Rookie, who was second in the French 1,000 Guineas earlier this month, and the Haggas filly started her 2015 campaign by winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial.
Kataniya, Lady of Kyushu, Moi Meme and Ame Bleu were separated by little more than a length in a blanket finish to a Listed three weeks back.
CLASSIC FORM TO KEEP THEM AT BAY IN THE DERBY
2.45 Chantilly (Prix du Jockey Club, French Derby) There hasn’t been an Irish winner of this since 1983 but Aidan O’Brien gives himself three chances today.
The Ballydoyle number-one seems to be Cape Clear Island but first-time blinkers suggests that the O’Brien team is not in the Classic league or this is a bad French Derby.
In fact, Cape Clear Island’s Sandown Classic Trtial second was let down yesterday by the third horse, Snoano, last of six in a Listed at Newmarket.
Cape Clear Island has since finished runner-up in the Hocquart at Longchamp but the winner, Ampere, is not considered in the same league as the same stable’s New Bay, vying for favouritism this morning.
New Bay ran second to another stablemate, Make Believe (Royal Ascot bound) in the French 2,000 Guineas (Highland Reel sixth), finishing as though today’s extra quarter-mile would be perfect.
The form looks solid, since the fourth horse, Karar, had run up to Territories in April before that one was second to Gleneagles in the Newmarket 2,000.
But this is a meeting of the top trialists: Karaktar won the Noailles and Silverware the Prix la Force at Longchamp, while War Dispatch took the Prix du Guiche on today’s course.
The only likely French runner in the Epsom Derby, as low as 16-1 in a place with bookmakers, 26.0 on BETDAQ, is Epicuris, but he lost his unbeaten record when slammed four lengths by Silverware in the Prix la Force.
That was on heavy but Silverware had earlier won seven lengths on good to soft. And there’s very little between Karaktar and Silverware on a line through Medrano, who was second to Ballydoyle’s Hans Holbein in the Chester Vase (so still all to play for, Aidan!)
DAQMAN’S FRENCH DERBY 1-2-3: New Bay 1, Silverware 2, Karaktar 3
3.30 Chantilly (Prix de Sandringham) Named after the Queen’s stud in Norfolk, but won only once by an English trainer.
Success for Toujours L’Amour earlier would frank the form of Mexican Gold, a neck behind Irish Rookie when third in the French 1,000 Guineas. Check it out!
The improver Impassable looks the obvious danger but the money this morning was for the Makfi filly Harpy, to be ridden by Andrea Atzeni, and Impassable was very easy to back.
4.05 Chantilly (Grand Prix de Chantilly) Three of the last six have gone to England and Brian Meehan tries to tip the balance in the raiders’ favour today via Agent Murphy though that one’s Ascot defeat of Red Galileo was made to look pedestrian by that one at York yesterday.
Victory for Prince Of Gibraltar would turn the Chantilly world full circle in the Pattern, as he finished third in last year’s French Derby on this day. Should be sharper after his Ganay run.
LIGHT THE STARS FOR GERMAN GUINEAS REVENGE
3.40 Dusseldorf (German 1,000 Guineas) England, represented by Cheveley Park fourth Terror (David Simcock), have won this twice in the last six seasons but Letters of Note would be a first for Ireland.
Andreas Wohler, whose La Saldana beat a bunch of these before he then saddled Full Rose to defeat Light The Stars over today’s CD, obviously has a strong hand.
But, in the fast-run race we are likely to get here, I take Light The Stars, who was closing down Full Rose that day, to reverse the placings.
She is a half-sister to Lope de Vega who won the French Derby. I believe that staying with proven class wins you class races.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9, according to strength; 10pts a banker)
BET 7pts win MUTHMIR (12.55 Chantilly)
BET 7pts win TOUJOURS L’AMOUR (1.25 Chantilly)
BET 8pts win NEW BAY and 3pts win SILVERWARE (2.45 Chantilly)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) MEXICAN GOLD (3.30 Chantilly)
BET 6pts win LIGHT THE STARS (3.40 Dusseldorf)
BET 5pts win PRINCE OF GIBRALTAR (4.05 Chantilly)
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