The French Open has been devoid of stunning upsets thus far, which means the big-name, top-seeded players will clash over the next week. The action really begins to rev up today, with several intriguing 4th-round matches on both the men’s and women’s side. Here are a few that have caught my eye:
Stan Wawrinka (1.38) vs. Gilles Simon (3.35)
After easily disposing of American Steve Johnson in straight sets, Wawrinka, the 8-seed, now gets 12-seed Gilles Simon in what should be a very competitive match. Simon prevailed in a 5-set, 4-hour marathon against fellow Frenchman Nicolas Mahut on Friday, so one would think that Wawrinka would enter today’s match with slightly fresher legs. These guys have faced each other four times previously and each man has won twice, though Wawrinka emerged victorious in their only clay court meeting. I do expect Simon to give Wawrinka some trouble here– after watching Simon’s display on Friday, when he tallied 69 winners (!) and displayed the heart of a champion, it’s difficult to imagine him losing in a lopsided manner– but Wawrinka seems to be the better player of late, having beaten Rafa Nadal on the clay in Rome just two weeks ago, and I think he’s likely to advance here. I do think Simon will take at least one set, though. Recommendation: Wawrinka at 1.38, Wawrinka 3-1 (sets) at 3.35
Roger Federer (1.4) vs. Gael Monfils (3.35)
The great Federer is rolling along again, winning all three of his matches this week in straight sets. Now he gets crowd favorite Monfils, the ultra-athletic Frenchman who has given him trouble in the past, beating him four times in 12 attempts, most recently in Monte Carlo last month. Whether Monfils has the discipline and fortitude to take out Federer in a Grand Slam, though, is a different thing entirely. That’s especially true based on the way Federer has been playing lately; I know he’s supposed to be running out of steam at age 33, but he seems to be playing better tennis now than he has in a couple of years. Monfils was taken to five sets by Pablo Cuevas on Feiday evening, so you have to wonder if his legendary stamina will be tested if this match stretches into the 4th and 5th sets. I realize Monfils has had some recent success against Federer and he’ll surely have the crowd firmly in his corner today, but I just don’t see it happening. Recommendation: Federer at 1.4, Federer 3-1 (sets) at 3.5
Maria Sharapova (1.4) vs. Lucie Safarova (3.35)
In the sport of tennis, favorites are normally favorites for a very good reason. This isn’t golf, where any professional could beat any other professional on any given day, this is a sport where one can assert their physical dominance over another, which is why the early rounds of a tennis tournament are often devoid of major upsets. Throughout her career, Lucie Safarova has been the “early round victim.” Prior to last year, she had played in 27 consecutive Grand Slams without advancing beyond the third round. Now she gets Maria Sharapova, the defending champion and someone she has only beaten once in five meetings. And the crazy thing is, I think Safarova has a great chance. Rumor has it that Sharapova has been under the weather this week, which could partially explain why she was so emotional after a seemingly routine straight-set win over Sam Stosur the other day. Plus, Safarova is playing the best tennis of her career and she’s always been very competitive against Sharapova, even in the losses. Each of their last two matches has gone the distance, and Safarova’s lone win did come on clay, which is her best surface. Call it a hunch, a feeling, an inspiration, a mistake… but I think we’re going to see a stunner here, and I’m putting my money where my mouth is. Recommendation: Safarova at 3.35
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