OVER TO THE MOON FOR COOKIES’ HAT-TRICK IN THE GERMAN DERBY: Following Dandalla (WON evens) on Friday, another Fortune Cookie scored yesterday – Patrick Sarsfield (WON 5-2) – and a Derby awaits the Daqman horses-to-follow list this afternoon with Wonderful Moon in the Deutsches Derby at Hamburg, himself on a hat-trick for the Cookies after two wins during the England and Irish lockdown.
DAQMAN RATES 11.0 DEAUVILLE OFFER TO TOPPLE PINATUBO AGAIN: Daqman now bids for a Group-1 double across Europe, with the German Derby the first leg, then the Prix Jean-Prat at Deauville with a formidable looking field, in which Pinatubo tries to climb back on his pinnacle. Daqman’s bet is 11.0 on BETDAQ.
WONDERFUL 34.0 BETDAQ ARC BET
⭕ 3.07 Hamburg (Deutsches Derby) My Fortune Cookies followed Wonderful Moon through the English and Irish lockdown, as the Sea The Moon colt completed a German Group-race hat-trick, including the Cologne Classic, twice beating Grocer Jack.
Grocer Jack looks held again but Over The Moon’s trainer, Henk Grewe, ‘does a Ballydoyle’, and saddles three others in the race, second favourite Dicaprio, plus Adrian and Only The Brave.
Only the brave would oppose Wonderful Moon, with Grewe targeting the Arc De Triomphe, which Germany last won with Danedream in 2011, ridden by Moon’s jockey today, Andrasch Starke.
I took a bit of the 34.0 Arc quote in the BETDAQ Sportsbook this morning, assuming some ‘overs’ if he wins today.
ALSON TAKEN TO OUTRUN PINATUBO
⭕ 3.25 Deauville (Prix Jean Prat) Pinatubo, sequence horse last year, nearly horse this. Can he restore the faith this afternoon in the Group-1 Prix Jean Prat, or is he the flag of 2019 form perpetually at half-mast?
Results since the resumption have been all about new kids on the block, winning at big prices while the punter’s past-results formbook wilts in the winds of change.
Kameko was first to achieve stardom and outrun Pinatubo in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, before Palace Pier readily turned him over – still favourite – in the St James’s Palace.
His two-year-old sequence of Chesham, Vintage and National Stakes was a four-timer when he won the Dewhurst on soft ground but the placed horses there, Arizona and Wichita, have gone down with him this season, like him placed but not quite good enough.
Officially he is dropped 8lb in the ratings to 120. That still leaves Malatham (8lb behind) and Wooded (10lb) with a lump of improvement to find, while Arizona (7lb) is obviously closer now than the 20lb deficit before he got within two lengths of him in the Dewhurst.
But the Arizona form looks very much like the same pair of schoolboys playing conkers in their own backyard.
Malatham, runner-up to Wichita at Doncaster last backend, won a Group 3 at Ascot on the soft in June, which the English handicapper reckons worth a 10lb rise but he has to improve that much again, and Wooded’s similar leap, also after a Group 3, was from a 6f race at Chantilly.
Kinross was not disgraced in the 2,000 Guineas but everything in the Ralph Beckett portfolio since then has come up short.
Alson, runner-up in the Lagardere, was third in the French Guineas, the form boosted when the runner-up was second in the French Derby.
Pierre-Charles Boudot knows that Alson is a bold front-runner on soft ground and could take the sting out of Pinatubo’s speed. That’s my one-two, with Alson tasty on BETDAQ at 11.0.
QUANAH CAN KEEP UP SOFT SEQUENCE
⭕ 12.45 Hamilton The secret to Quanah is softish ground and Daniel Tudhope (form together 1111). As a four-year-old, the Dandy Man gelding is entitled to improve the few pound of his latest rise in the ratings, which keeps him within the class-5 weight range. Looks value at BETDAQ 3.5.
⭕ 1.35 Lingfield Charles Hills, who landed a hat-trick at Salisbury yesterday, has an Equiano filly in this one, gradually finding her feet. It’s probably next time in a handicap for Ginniano (BETDAQ 15.0) but worth a pound for a place today. Equiano won the Kings Stand for Barry Hills.
⭕ 3.45 Bangor Elysees, who won back to back juvenile hurdles and was runner-up in a Grade 2, was back to form on the Flat a month ago
Elysees is still only five, and his troubles seemed behind him when he won on his return to the track in a two-miler at Chepstow. BETDAQ 4.5.
After a novice four-timer, Some Day Soon took in top novice hurdles at Chepstow (Persian War) and Cheltenham last year, and was not disgraced.
Moabit, who has had two runs over fences this year, won his hurdles in the Spring of 2018. Like Down The Highway, his best form was on very soft ground.
⭕ 4.15 Bangor Damut I’m Out (BETDAQ 3.5) seemed transformed by the Bangor track over this CD last summer, and could take this wicket against Middlebrow from the out-of-form yard of Donald McCain and top rider here on percentages, Bryony Frost, who has found Regulation a place-only prospect off his current mark.
⭕ 5.45 Cork Bookies who opened Valeria Messalina at 7-1 yesterday took some hefty bets in to around 4-1 last night..
The front-runner faded final furlong in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, but looks a big threat to the third filly home that day, So Wonderful, now dropped back to 7f. Back and lay, taking 5.1 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.45 Hamilton (win 10)
BET 4pts win QUANAH
1.35 Lingfield (win 15, win 10)
BET 1pt win and 3pts place GINNIANO
3.07 Hamburg
FORTUNE COOKIE (nap)
BET 20pts win WONDERFUL MOON
3.25 Deauville (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win ALSON
3.45 Bangor (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win ELYSEES
4.15 Bangor (win 10)
BET 4pts win DAMUT I’M OUT
5.45 Cork (win 10)
BET 3pts win VALERIA MESSALINA
ANTE-POST (win 50)
Arc de Triomphe 34.0
BULL’S-EYE BET 1.5pts win WONDERFUL MOON
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