10.0 WINNER IN DOUBLE WHAMMY: Daqman landed a dramatic Double Whammy in a two-year-olds’ race at Nottingham yesterday when he laid the morning-market leader, which finished 10-lengths last, and punted the 10-0 outsider which landed a gamble.
WIN: 5-2 Viren’s Army (Betdaq 10.0)
WIN: Bathos, lay (unplaced 4-1)
10-1 ‘CES’ SUCCESS EASY AS ABC: Today’s the day for Daqman’s ABC Guide to the Cesarewitch. Last year’s top of the list was Big Easy (WON 10-1), and the guide is currently in hot form with the following three ABC headliners:
KODI BEAR PUNTERS EXPECT CELEBRATION (Won 4-5)
LEGER SET TO BE BALLYDOYLE BEACH PARTY (Won 2-1)
MASTER TRAINER ELSWORTH TOP OF THE WORLD (2nd 25-1)
PIPE HOLDS THE KEY IN THE CESAREWITCH ABC
3.50 Newmarket, Saturday (Cesarewitch): I’ve analysed those horses currently in the betting market from the 36 declared, and added the X-factor draw boost where applicable.
A Winner at 1m 6f or more (20 out of 21)
B Carries no more than 9st 1lb (16 out of 21)
C Older than four (16 out of 21)
D Raced in September (9 out of 11)
E From National Hunt or mixed yard (12 out of 18)
X-factor: 13 of last 18 in first two were drawn 1-13
ABCDE Low Key
Has completed a late-summer hat-trick for David Pipe, winning twice over hurdles before running away with the Newmarket Cesarewitch Trial.
He settled well, coming from a long way back, so probably won’t be inconvenienced if he gets a low draw, and he acts on good and soft ground.
ABCDE Cassells Rock
Well down the field in the Newmarket Cesarewitch Trial won by Low Key but that was first run on the Flat for a year and, dual hurdles winner, narrowly beaten in the Spring in a hurdles final at the Punchestown Festival.
ABCDE Montefeltro
Sixth on the last day to Low Key in the Trial on his first visit to Newmarket, he won the Irish Cesarewitch two years ago off 89 and is back to within a pound of that level now.
Absent in 2014, he has not been placed this season, attempting the Ormonde Stakes (soft ground against him) and Northumberland Plate (beaten six lengths) off 7-8lb higher mark.
ABCDE Renneti
Switched from the Flat in France to run second in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December, 2013, but failed to complete in two hurdles runs after, and not seen again until taking a small Flat handicap at Sligo on heavy ground in August.
ABCD Gabrial’s King
Won the Chester Stakes, just short of 1m 6f at Chester in August, but had won beyond 2m at York last year, and not disgraced in the Chester Cup (4th) and Northumberland Plate (7th). But only 16th in this Cesarewitch last year off 8lb lower.
ABCE Bayan
Winner of The Ladbroke big-field Group-3 hurdle at Ascot last December, but no success since and not much form on the Flat to recommend him.
ABCE Big Thunder
Has tried a host of big handicaps at the likes of Ascot, Goodwood, Newcastle and York, but has won only when dropped to class 3 and only when the ground is firm(ish).
ABCE Grumeti
Top juvenile over the sticks in 2012 (third Triumph Hurdle after winning its trial) but lost his form and won only minor chases switched to fences.
ABCEX Heartbreak City
Only seven runs in Ireland since moving from France, but failed to break his maiden over hurdles. Back to the Flat and third at Galway before landing a gamble at York in August (2m plus).
ABCE Teak
Won last year’s Goodwood Stakes (2m 5f) and four wins from five starts, mixing it over hurdles, but no success off higher marks in the last year. Third over the extreme distance in the Queen Alexandra Stakes but only fifth in the Goodwood Stakes this time around.
ABCEX Triumphant
Has failed to score, though sometimes well backed, since breaking his maiden over hurdles at Tramore in the Spring of 2014.
ABDX Deauville Dancer
Class 4 and 5 hat-trick in the summer of 2014 but not much show since until back to form, runner-up in the Gordon Carter Stakes (2m) at Ascot earlier this month. Prescott stable also has William of Orange, High Secret and Moscato.
ABD High Secret
Hat-trick landed at a low level around a year or so ago but progressive since, winning this year in class 4 twice, then beaten only a neck in the Brown Jack Stakes (class 2) at Ascot, making a total rise of 24lb.
Up again for that but winner since at Killarney and excellent effort, fourth, dropped back in trip in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock. Cesarewitch is likely to be his final race before hurdling.
ABDX Moscato
Fifth win in six starts when the grey opened his season with success at Ascot on a higher level. Quiet since but much better last month, not disgraced giving a stone to the winner when seventh in the Cesarewitch Trial.
ABDX William of Orange
Yet another of Sir Mark Prescott’s, lightly raced, seven times in the frame until pacemaker in the Group-2 Doncaster Cup (seventh) won by stablemate Pallisator. Third in the Goodwood Stakes in July.
ABE Norab
Winner only once on turf, climbing the ratings with back-to-back AW success. Not seen since May.
AB Steve Rogers
Lightly raced winner of five of his 10 starts, penalized for Chester 2m win a month back. Needs to step up on the face of it, but says Roger Varian: ‘I love this horse!’
ACD Angel Gabrial
Stuck on a high mark since following up narrow defeat in the 2014 Chester Cup by winning the Northuymberland Plate. Fourth in this year’s Plate (up 7lb) and now well known to the handicapper.
ACDX Oriental Fox
Won the Cesarewitch Trial of two years ago and fifth in the big race proper. Fifth in the 2014 Gold Cup, and sixth in the Northumberland Plate.
But won the 2m 6f Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot this season and has gone well at Group level in major stamina tests. Prefers a sound surface.
ACE Quick Jack
Super consistent. Third in this last year – but up 7lb – and third in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. Second in the Chester Cup and winner of the Galway Hurdle. High mark but lightly raced this year.
ACX Nearly Caught
Sixth in last year’s Cesarewitch, and coped well with higher mark when third n the Northumberland Plate. Low draw would see him up with the pace, which is his preferred style.
B Magic Dancer
Runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial but that turned out to be a nothing race. Out of his depth in the Pattern since, and not much to show for drop to handicaps the last twice.
MOON LIGHT OF CHELMSFORD NIGHT MEETING
2.45 Ayr I’m trying the same tricks today as yesterday. A Double Whammy (7.40 tonight) after a win-and-place bet on a well-bred two-year-old, Huntlaw (5.3 in the BETDAQ orange as I write), against an odds-on shot with experience.
That one is Lydiate, who didn’t show much, so I think both are bets ‘on potential’ and I’ll take the bigger price. Lydiate was odds on this morning but I made an offer of 2.2 to cover my Huntlaw win stake and reduce my commission if the favourite wins.
7.10 Chelmsford Shifting Moon is the first of two three-year-old fillies who catch my eye in consecutive races at Chelmsford tonight. She is 1111 on the course.
I’d normally be looking for someone to beat such a favourite (3.85 in BETDAQ early mouse) but the rest of the field leaves you circumspect. I asked for 4.0 in the orange, hoping to cut down my commission.
Trafalgar Rock was an expensive bridesmaid with five consecutive seconds, including odds-on defeat – until finally getting off the mark, but over shorter and leaving him with a lump of weight today.
Cotton Club is a once-a-year horse; Meetings Man is eight, and Noguchi 10! Front Five and Tafolau (hanging in a race against Shifting Moon last time) are maidens.
THERE’S MERRITT IN ANOTHER DOUBLE WHAMMY
7.40 Chelmsford A cracking contest. Bint Daddy has been raised to his highest mark, but has been placed 14 times in 19 AW starts, always a trier. Chelmsford form: 11302322.
Fire Fighting has been dropped from the Pattern (including fifth to Jack Hobbs at Kempton) but is still 8lb higher than for his sole success in 26 starts since Ayr around a year ago.
Flaming Spear was given a massive amount to do in the Spring behind champion-sprinter Muhaarar in the Greenham and when reluctant to go into the stalls for the French 2,000 Guineas (the one-two was Make Believe and New Bay).
I expected to see him gelded but Kevin Ryan isn’t cutting off his stallion propensities (!) nor giving up on his racing career.
Grendisar landed a Listed hat-trick last winter but his penalties for that make him 9st 10lb top-weight here, and placing him will not be easy now. I think he’s a false favourite this morning.
Red Avenger can take a keen hold and is a difficult ride so, in his first race for Gary Moore, the trainer has called in the persuasive George Baker, seen at his best with a pulsating performance on Dutch Masterpiece at the weekend.
We don’t know the merit of Merritt Island. Back-to-back wins at a low level are misleading, as so often with a Prescott sequence horse, and her last-day second in a Listed is suspect because the race was on a French provincial track.
But our handicapper was impressed – he hiked her 18lb to 97 – and, if he’s right, this 73-rated in August is on a form spiral.
There are plenty of question marks here but, apart from the favourite, Fire Fighting and Merritt Island (8.2 on BETDAQ this morning) are the two others who get the trip well, and I shall take a chance on the three-year-old, who has the fillies’ allowances.
DAQMAN BETS:
BET 3pts win and 5pts place HUNTLAW, and 3pts win (win stakes saver) LYDIATE (2.45 Ayr)
BET 6pts win (nap) SHIFTING MOON (7.10 Chelmsford)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 3pts GRENDISAR and BET 4pts win MERRITT ISLAND (7.40 Chelmsford)
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