HOW DAQMAN CALLED THE DERBY TEST: Daqman dared to oppose 4-11 favourite New London in the Chester Vase Derby trial yesterday and forecast a front-running triumph for Ryan Moore on Changingoftheguard. It was changing of the guard all day as Aidan O’Brien stole the Classic scene from Godolphin. Then Daqman forecast that his nap, a value 4.0 on BETDAQ, was ‘a given’ for Hugo Palmer. The horse ran clear and kept him ahead of Pricewise, 11-10.
Wednesday winners: profit on the day 18.50
WON 10-3 CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (Chester Vase)
WON 11-8 EVER GIVEN (nap, BETDAQ 4.0)
‘HIDDEN HORSE’ AT BETDAQ 29.0 TODAY: There’s one of Daqman’s ‘hidden horses’ running today; 29.0 on BETDAQ this morning, 22.0 each way. He relies on Ryan Moore (a Chester hat-trick yesterday) to take the big pots.
SUNDAY A GOOD THURSDAY BET
⭕ 1.30 Chester Winners from 5f to 7f here yesterday won from stalls 5, 2, 2 until Ffion came down the outer after being hampered. Despite an average field of 11.3, winners came out of gates 1 to 4 in this opener every time in the decade.
The worries for draw backers betting religiously to such stats is that the rail is being moved for all races today, and the going will be softish.
My fancy is Sunday Sovereign (gate 5), who won at this level under today’s jockey, Rob Hornby, on his only visit to Chester.
Look Out Louis (gate 3) is consistent, never out of the frame in his last 11 starts; likes a bit of cut but scored here on firm in a big field, 6lb lower, last June.
Out of the one stall, Militia won over the CD here on good to soft two summers back, but most success has come at class-4 level.
Mokaatil (stall 2) won on another fast track, Epsom the last day and I like his style for this course and distance.
He and Night On Earth (out of 4) are claimed off to the tune of 7lb, but the race has always in the decade been won by a jockey with more experience. For instance, should Night On Earth get to the front, will Benoit De La Sayette judge the fractions right and keep him there?
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 7.2 Sunday Sovereign
I’M EXPECTING MOORE MAGIC
⭕ 2.05 Chester 80% of winners came out of stalls 1 to 5. It’s a race Andrew Balding likes and his Koy Koy (gate 3) gradually improved last year until going clear at Newbury in September, albeit in class 4. He was the money horse here last night.
From the one stall, Outgate is used to the straight open tracks of Newmarket and York. But Ryan Moore is booked and he was dominant on the course yesterday: BETDAQ 2.65.
Outside World (5) likes to lead, as do so many from his yard, but his two wins to date were both over 6f. He might help stablemate Value Theory (4), who has already scored at seven.
ANOTHER BALLYDOYLE STAR..
⭕ 2.40 Chester (Dee Stakes) Another Derby trial, it’s been won eight times by Aidan O’Brien, and it will be interesting to see Ryan Moore’s tactics after having the confidence in yesterday’s trials to make all the running.
Star of India (BETDAQ 2.65), unexposed after just two races, has always been regarded as a staying type.
Well outpointed in the Craven Stakes but meets a motley crew here, and O’Brien had them so fit yesterday, they weren’t blowing a bit after their race.
This trial is unlikely to be an Epsom pointer, nor has it been in the past. Ballydoyle’s last winner, Circus Maximus (2019), dropped back to a mile for a Group-1 double that year. So did Magician (2012). Rostropovich (2018) was only Group 3.
Cliffs Of Moher (2017) did best – second in the Derby – but it was a messy finish at Epsom if you remember, and he, too, dropped back in trip.
Roger Varian won the Dee Stakes last year, and his Dubai Poet was third to Coroebus in the autumn. But he was beaten by Checkandchallenge at Newcastle in April before that one finished 14th of 15 in the Guineas.
Cresta pulled hard behind Guineas fourth Eydon when they met in the Feilden Stakes; might improve if he settles better. Sonny Liston finished alongside Cresta in fourth.
Hugo Palmer’s Mr McCann cannot be ruled out, as Newmarket fourth to Native Trail in July, but the form of his win at Epsom in the autumn, when he had Berkshire Rebel back in third, beaten six lengths, was exposed yesterday when the Rebel finished 13 lengths off Changingoftheguard.
⭕ 3.10 Chester (Ormonde Stakes) East Asia has improved 30lb in the last year or so, from a class-5 handicap win to Group-2 placed, including success on the soft.
He likes a turning track (two wins at Goodwood) and has been ridden just three times by William Buick, with the results: 111. He’s a Hidden Horse here at a huge 29.0 on BETDAQ.
The giant John Leeper was a big talking horse last year, after winning twice at this time, but Ryan Moore has ridden him before without success. Hooded now.
Thunderous won a sub-standard Dante Stakes last May, and was not disgraced in more Group races, fourth in the Hardwicke. Needed his reappearance run after 10 months off.
Invite won a Listed here at Chester on autumn ground, beating the Ebor Handicap third, Alounak, a soft-ground winner over shorter at Haydock.
Hamish had a good year in 2019, winning the Melrose at York on the firm and beaten a neck by Trueshan over today’s trip at Newbury on heavy. Won a Group 3 in September, first run back after a long break (tendon injury), and was fourth in the Long-Distance Championship at Ascot.
Beaten a short-neck in the Royallieu at the Arc meeting, Roger Varian’s Believe in Love had won two Group-3s at this kind of trip but she’s never before scored on turf before July.
The grey mare Albaflora has won first time of asking for the last two years, yet her best form was late season last year, second in a pair of Group-1s, the Yorkshire Oaks and the Champion Fillies And Mares.
Verdict: Hard to split Albaflora (BETDAQ 2.32) and Hamish (6.3); both will want this first time out; both like the ground; but Albaflora is a year younger, down in class and getting 6lb from Hamish. East Asia (29.0 to win and 22.0 e.w., a fifth the place) is better than the bare form and is jockeyed up to spring a surprise.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Chester (win 12)
BET 2pts win SUNDAY SOVEREIGN
2.05 Chester (win 10)
BET 3.75pts win OUTGATE
2.40 Chester (win 12, nap)
BET 7pts win STAR OF INDIA
3.10 Chester (win 10 and win 20+)
BET 7pts win ALBAFLORA
BET 1pt e.w. EAST ASIA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
