FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s games between INTER MILAN v EMPOLI and LEVANTE v REAL SOCIEDAD both including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
INTER MILAN V EMPOLI
5.45pm We entering a fascinating part of the season now with every game a must win game for sides in title battles, relegation fights and aiming for European spots. We have a brilliant night ahead for Friday night football on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with action from Serie A and La Liga. We start in Serie A with Inter Milan hosting Empoli. This is another must win for Inter Milan in the race for the title – they can go one point ahead of AC Milan and go top of the table before AC Milan play on Sunday. The market is fully expecting an easy home win with Inter Milan trading 1.17 at the time of writing. Inter Milan got back to winning ways with a fully deserved 2-1 win over Udinese last weekend, and that was badly needed after a shock loss against Bologna. As I said in my preview of that game, Inter Milan didn’t deserve to lose against Bologna and they remain in good form. That huge error by the goalkeeper was just one of those things. It could cost them the title though! Empoli are sitting out of the relegation battle in 14th but they are still having a pretty average season. It’s hard to see them getting anything from this game, and I feel it’s just a case of how many goals Inter Milan will score.
Before you go lumping on Inter Milan however, an interesting thing that caught my eye doing research this weekend is that Empoli actually have more points away from home compared to at home this season. That should make a few punters think twice before backing the 1.17, however I fully expect Inter to get the job done here. Empoli did manage a surprise 3-2 win over Napoli recently, but they have been conceding plenty of chances. They gave away an xG of 2.66 against Torino last weekend and their average goals conceding in Serie A this season is very close to two – it’s 1.9! Inter have created xG figures of 2.39, 2.20, 1.47, 2.69 and 2.37 in their last five games – they are playing very well at the moment however the market is expecting a lot of goals here, and Inter haven’t really been scoring more than three recently. Empoli have only conceded four against Udinese but they actually finished with a higher xG figure that day and were unlucky to concede four. I am fully expecting Inter to win, but I also expect Empoli to keep the score line respectable. I am happy to lay Any Other Home Win at 2.64 in the Correct Score market.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Any Other Home Win at 2.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntEmp
LEVANTE V REAL SOCIEDAD
8pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Levante host Real Sociedad. This is a massive game for both sides, for different reasons. Levante start the weekend sitting bottom of the table, but their performances have been much better than their results and they are only four points away from safety now. Staying up looked a lost cause a few weeks ago, but they have managed two wins and a draw from their last five games – with the two losses coming against Barcelona and Sevilla, both 3-2. Real Sociedad would have been very disappointed to draw with Rayo Vallecano last weekend, but with Real Betis also drawing that fifth place is still up from grabs. They start the weekend two points behind Real Betis, and of course they will be looking at this game as a good chance to get three points against the side sitting bottom of the table. Every team knows about xG now, and studies the under-lining performance levels of each team – Real Sociedad will know how good Levante are – Levante actually sit in 10th on the xG table. I’ve said this earlier in the season, but it would be a great shame to see them go down – and possibly the challenge will be keeping the squad together because if they can do that they will bounce back up. Players will want to stay in La Liga though, and I’m sure they will get plenty of offers based on the performances levels this season.
It’s no surprise that we have an open market here, although if you just looked at the table you would think that Real Sociedad are massive at 2.42. I feel the opposite, I feel that price is far too short away to a Levante side who are playing their best football of the season at the moment. They have created xG figures of 2.41, 2.92, 4.68, 3.46 and 1.72 in their last five games, that includes Barcelona and Sevilla too – both times they finished those games with a higher xG figure and were unlucky to lose! I fully accept a massive issue for Levante has been taking their chances, but surely the results will come if they keep playing like this. Real Sociedad haven’t been creating a huge amount recently too – they had to play Barcelona recently as well, but only finished with an xG of 0.62 away to Rayo Vallecano. We’re going to have a very close game here, and although we have an open market I would even have the sides closer together. I’m happy to lay Sociedad at the odds, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Levante win either.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Real Sociedad to beat Levante at 2.42 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LevSoc