TWO WINNERS A DAY AGAIN: Daqman landed two or more winners a day for five days last week. Now he’s at it again, with two scorers each day on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yesterday’s were: Fingersonswitch (WON 9-4) and banker Paint The Clouds (WON 1-3).
CHELTENHAM HERE WE COME: Today Daqman looks forward to Cheltenham, with his plans for a new structure to his sequence betting, analysis of what to expect at the festival and the quest for value.
THREE-WEEK GUIDE TO CHELTENHAM AND..
* NEXT WEEK (February 29 – March 6) Next week we are emerging from the dark ages of winter Jumps racing. Structured betting, which we’ve been talking about this week, will be much easier, and I’ll be planning my strategies.
* PRE-CHELTENHAM WEEK: (March 7 to 13) Here comes Cheltenham, just a week away. As well as a new model for our betting, we have to relate our targets to the likely sequence of events at Cheltenham (how many odds-on shots win, for example).
I will tell you race by race in advance where the winners come from and what to expect this year.
* CHELTENHAM WEEK (March 14 to 20) Day by day, race by race, analysis and information, including betting assessments for value in the BETDAQ market. First let’s finish this week’s guide to how to bet and win.
HOW TO WIN MONEY BY PLANNING AHEAD
The final piece of the profits jigsaw is value. You need it as a thread through all your bets on a long-term basis.
Every day is not a new day but part of a sequence of bets. Enough winners in the sequence and you break even. Value winners in the sequence and you show a profit.
Aim for each day to have its own strike rate, say two winners out of five (40%) and it becomes obvious that you need the right prices (value for money) or the right stakes – or both – to finish in front.
However, the bets are not equal in strength. Some are bankers, some are outsiders. So you also need to look at them for strike rate? How many winning bankers from how many selections can you achieve over a period of time?
The BETDAQ market gifts you a low, low overround – sometimes a level playing field – in each list of offers in the orange so that you have a value basis for all your bets whereas, with a bookmaker, you know the prices are loaded against you.
But, even with this foundation for value in BETDAQ, you still need to find the offers which are bigger than they should be, in your estimation.
If the results of your sequences are good, adjust the stakes to make an even bigger profit. If they are poor, reconstruct the bet.
BANKERS: Let’s relate it to my own selections in this column. Daqman bankers at short prices must win on average 68% of the time to break even at level stakes.
Next week: results of bankers so far; where we’ve gone wrong; the new targets; new staking plan.
Do short-priced horses really do well at Cheltenham? How can we relate to their strike rate and make money.
NAPS: Naps, which are bigger prices, need to score 40% of the time to break even on level stakes.
Next week: review of the season so far. New structure. New staking plan.
LAYS: My target for lays is 72%, since I did a survey over the whole of 2014. As with bankers and naps, we are talking about sequences.
You cannot expect to win all the time but following your strike-rates for naps and lays along the lines of those percentages – between 4 and 7 winners out of 10 – means you don’t lose, and you have a solid basis for winning.
FEATURE-RACE BETS: These are big-race selections and we are hoping they will win at around 7-1 or 8-1, in which case we are talking about a break-even strike-rate of around 11-12%.
Results: NH season to date: Daqman 25, Pricewise 10
HUNTINGDON GOES AHEAD
Huntingdon (with ‘ON’ being the emphasis) goes ahead today after the track was declared fit for racing and Sedgefield also gets the green light after two inspections.
An inspection had been called for 8am at Huntingdon but despite temperatures dipping below freezing overnight, stewards were able to give the green light as the track is frost free.
The going on the hurdle course is good to soft, soft in places while the chase track is soft, good to soft in places.
Feature race on the card is the Listed Racing UK Lady Protectress Mares’ Chase at 2.45 and it’s presented Irish maestro Willie Mullins with yet another raiding opportunity.
He runs Gitane Du Berlais who is quite used to travelling across the Irish Sea – she was last seen here at Sandown in January when fourth in a similar event (but better class) to today’s when fourth to Polly Peachum. Gitane Du Berlais has since gone on to win easily at Naas. Emily Gray holds Gitane Du Berlais on Carlisle form earlier in the season but the favourite has a 5lb pull.
I was hoping to try and get a sneaky BETDAQ place bet on Emily Gray at similar odds to Gitane Du Berlais in the win market but as Kylie Minogue once sang: “I should be so lucky, lucky, lucky, lucky.”
Instead, the play has to be the favourite on the win market.
NO TO MOYNE: UP IN CLASS AND UP IN WEIGHTS
Ladbrokes sponsor three races on the card at Lingfield this afternoon.
2:00 Download The Ladbrokes App Handicap (4yo+, Class 6, 1m 1y, 6 runners)
There was a 16/1 boilover in this race last year and I could do with an upset today as I want to take on the hat-trick seeking Gunner Moyne. He’s UP in class and UP in weights – a handy juxtaposition for potential layers. He has won his last two races at Chelmsford sweetly enough but this looks tougher with the extra weight and the class-dropping mare Skidby Mill who looks a serious rival. She’s 3.2 on the BETDAQ win market and will do for me.
2:35 Bet Now With The Ladbrokes App Median Auction Maiden Stakes (4-6yo, Class 6, 1m 1y, 4 runners)
The four horse race can quickly be viewed as a match between Sarmadee and Esteemable. Sarmadee made a pleasing debut behind Appeared at Wolverhampton with the winner having to work very hard to justify his 1/3 price tag. I much prefer second favourite Esteemable who was a good second to Power Game (gone on to win two out of two since) at Kempton and had the rest of the field quite well strung out.
3:45 Ladbrokes Handicap (4yo+, Class 4, 1m 1y, 7 runners)
Poor old Franco’s Secret – he’s raced off a mark of 77 for his last six races without success – so what does the handicapper do?
(a) Keep him on 77
(b) Drop him to 76
(c) Raise him to 78
And the answer is, pausing for dramatic effect, C !!!
This is tough and despite there being just two places on offer I like the look of Justice First on the BETDAQ place market. He scrambled home at Kempton last time (beating Franco’s Secret) when ridden by Pat Cosgrave for the first time in his career. Cosgrave is in the plate again today.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 4pts win SKIDBY MILL (2.00 Lingfield)
BET 6pts win ESTEEMABLE (2.35 Lingfield)
BET 8pts win (nap) GITANE DU BERLAIS (2.45 Huntingdon)
BET 4pts place JUSTICE FIRST (3.45 Lingfield)
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