NINE LAYS UP IN A ROW: Winners are hard to find but Daqman’s always on some sequence or other. Right now, he can’t stop winning with losers. He opposed morning favourite Norse Legend yesterday, and it became his ninth consecutive successful lay.
WON Puffin Billy (fell 7-4)
WON Champagne Fever (4th 9-2)
WON Grandouet (4th 3-1)
WON Witness In Court (fell 9-1)
WON Relic Rock (3rd 10-11)
WON Bourne (2nd 7-1)
WON Some Buckle (2nd 7-4)
WON Petite Rose (3rd 11-4)
WON Norse Legend (2nd 9-4)
TODAY: WINCANTON AND THURLES OK: It’s soft-heavy all round with Wincanton of the three English jumps meetings surviving a morning inspection, as did Thurles in Ireland.
DON A BETDAQ OFFER YOU CAN’T REFUSE
2.45 Thurles (Ladbrokes Ireland Kinloch Brae Chase) Nothing to split them. Even Stephen, levels you devils, Don Cossack and Champagne Fever (2.45). It looks that way.
But that was only on BETDAQ this morning. While layers on the exchange were offering 2.08 and 2.06 respectively in the orange, the bookmakers – 12 out of 15 of them that I checked – went odds on Don Cossack.
Same again, as Sprinter Sacre eases out to 2-1 with some firms for Saturday’s Clarence House Chase at Ascot; the real question is what BETDAQ backers will think about the race on the day, what offers they will make, what they are prepared to lay.
My advice to punters: Use ante-post betting only if it gives you a position you are unlikely to see again. Otherwise wait for BETDAQ on the day.
In any case, the really big ante-post prices for the top races will be on BETDAQ anyway. Before the race. And on the day. Look out for more from me about that, as Cheltenham gets closer.
McCOY THE MAN TO HANDLE NOVIRAK
1.10 and 2.50 Market Rasen I have lived or worked just down the road from the racetracks of Bath, Epsom, Market Rasen, Nottingham, Saint-Cloud, Sandown, and Wincanton. And I’ve watched my own horses run at Ayr, Doncaster, Epsom, Cheltenham and Southwell.
All have great significance for me but, if I had to nominate the one where I am guaranteed a good view of all the racing, have a decent meal and a good day out, on a course which has developed and innovated over the years, first choice among them would have to be Market Rasen.
The East Midlands track, not far from M1 and A1, attracts horses from the South and the North so that local Market Rasen and Louth trainets, Michael Chapman and Steve Gollings, are challenged in the first race there today by stables from Lanark, Worcester, Devon, Gloucester, Lambourn, and Newmarket.
It is one of the tracks that should be strongly supported, as the All-Weather bulldozers move in slowly but surely and jumps-racing prizemoney and race-by-race equine attendance become thin on the ground.
Gollings ‘stuffed’ the star names – O’Neill, McCain – in the opener (1.10) in 2012 but I can’t see him doing it with a first-time hurdler, Deficit, though the horse won as recently as August on the Flat at Kempton.
The market may tell us what is expected of Nicky Henderson’s only runner of the day at the Lincolnshire track, Kilcrea Vale.
What we know already is that the Beneficial five-year-old has won an Irish Point and that he is the sole Henderson selected of four declared at the five-day stage for this race.
Gioia Di Vita and Pyrshan (looking a bit exposed now) have some placed form over hurdles already but the one to beat is Novirak.
Novirak runs for James Fanshawe, instead of Group Flat performer Shwaiman and, though he was a bit of a character on the Flat, took to hurdles well, the form of his debut third boosted by the winner, Glingerburn.
The turns and undulations of Market Rasen, plus the cunning, no-messing coaxing of A P McCoy, should keep Novirak’s mind on the job and get him into a finish here.
McCoy has another solid chance on Big Water (2.50), as Chestnut Ben, who scored over this CD on the last day, is 20lb higher than winning when fresh in October. Lucky Landing also has a good record on today’s course.
SILVERGROVE SUITED TO MARATHON TRIP
2.35 Wincanton (Somerset National) The Somerset track is also a treasure to be preserved and given a fat-cat share of the prizemoney, if only because it is the premier track in the county that has contained the massive strings of Team Pipe, Philip Hobbs and Paul Nicholls over so many years now.
Today’s meeting will mystify local racegoers. No Nicholls. Not a novice. Not a champion. Not even a dog (of the equine variety).
If punters look at past results, the mystery deepens. Apart from the last race, Nicholls has had just one winner on this day. It seems that this is a week of respite.
In fact, Far West (beaten yesterday) is Ditcheat’s only runner inside a seven days. Ascot is otherwise first stop after Hawkes Point’s Warwick Classic win of last Saturday.
I didn’t mention Colin Tizzard in the ‘massive strings of Somerset’. His Venn Farm stable is an impressive set-up but, though perhaps the nearest yard to Wincanton racecourse, it is actually in Dorset.
In Ditcheat’s absence, Milborne Port may play. The current Tizzard form is 44412221, and he had seven left in at Wincanton this morning.
The Tizzards’ Handy Andy (2.35) is in a handy each-way betting race (eight runners as I write), a 20lb range which the Racing Post says is spot-on handicapping, only a pound or two between the lot of them when the weights are taken into account.
In that case, claims of 10lb (George Gorman on Reblis) and 7lb (Alice Mills on Monkerty Tunkerty) should be taken very seriously. In fact, Reblis had the ‘Monkerty’ beast well behind in third when he won the Sussex National a year ago on heavy like today.
Reblis is back below that mark and on heavy ground for the first time since but I can’t help but be attracted by the weight – and the booking of Daryl Jacob – for Silvergrove, an Old Vic out of a Classic Cliché mare, so should love this marathon trip.
If the handicapper has, indeed, got this spot on from what he knows – with seven of the BETDAQ offers covered by only 3.5 points, as I write – then the younger, unexposed horses are the ones most likely to put egg on his face. Silvergrove is only seven and has just hit form.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stake 1 to 9 for strength: 10 points is a banker)
BET 4pts win SILVERGROVE (2.35 Wincanton)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) DON COSSACK (2.45 Thurles)
BET 8pts win BIG WATER (2.50 Market Rasen)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Novirak and Kilcrea Vale (1.10 Market Rasen), with Don Cossack (2.45 Thurles) and Big Water (2.50 Market Rasen)
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