MARKET WARNING AS DAILY HITS HALTED AFTER EIGHT DAYS: Daqman, stuck with one surviving meeting, knew before his first two bets went into the stalls that they had little chance yesterday, when they more than doubled in price before the ‘off’, drifting to 16.0 and 18.0. He had reduced his stakes to 7.1 points in total, sorry to leave behind eight days in a row with one winner or more.
WILL CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL WINNERS BE DUBLIN DOUBLES? Daqman today enters the fierce debate about the potential Cheltenham domination by Willie Mullins and winners of the Dublin Festival. In its three years, have those Leopardstown winners taken all the prizes or is it a scare story to keep Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls awake nights? Let’s look at the Cheltenham results day by day (Day One: Tuesday today) and just See How They Won.
WHICH STABLES KEEP ON WINNING THE JUMPERS BUMPERS? Faced with an entire card of ‘National Hunt Flat races’ at Kempton today, Daqman answers another question: which stables are farming these AW ‘Jumpers Bumpers’?
CHELTENHAM: SEE HOW THEY WON
Where do the Cheltenham winners come from? Is the increasingly strong Dublin Festival the key to the championship races in March? Here’s the path to Cheltenham for the champions in the last three years (Dublin festival winners in capitals).
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 16 (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle): Summerville Boy (2018) came directly from the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown; and Shishkin (2020) from a Newbury-Huntingdon double.
KLASSICAL DREAM (2019, Willie Mullins) struck for the Dublin Festival. He had won at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting before landing the Grade-1 novice hurdle there in the February.
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 16 (Arkle Novices Chase): Duc Des Genievres (2019) came from back-to-back wins at Gowran Park, and Put The Kettle On (2020) had taken the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham in the November.
FOOTPAD (2018, Willie Mullins) was also a winner at Leopardstown at Christmas before taking the Arkle at the February festival and went on to make it four in a row at Cheltenham, then five at Punchestown.
3.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 16 (Champion Hurdle) Buveur d’Air (2017-18) took in a Sandown Listed as his final step to Cheltenham glory and also won the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton before his second success at the festival.
Nicky Henderson used the same Christmas Hurdle route for Epatante (2020). In between Gavin Cromwell scored for Ireland with Espoir d’Allen (2019), winner of the Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas in the January.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 16 (Mares Hurdle) England’s winner among NINE Irish champions in the decade was Roksana (2019), who had been placed at Sandown in the February. Benie Des Dieux (2018) had won at Naas.
HONEYSUCKLE (2020) was Irish Champion at the Dublin Racing Festival and she retained that title last week.
GO FISHING IN JUMPERS BUMPERS
Have you got a hope of a bite? You’re in a swim most punters avoid. It’s a Flat race but it’s for NH horses. Oh, and not just one race; there are nine Jumpers Bumpers; all at one meeting, Kempton.
After all the to-do last week about trainer form doesn’t matter, I notice many in the same Press or on the same website are clamouring to find stable stats for this meeting, in case there is nowhere else to go.
So here are the bumper wins this season for top trainers engaged at Kempton today:
19 Nicky Henderson
16 Paul Nicholls
13 Fergal O’Brien
Also: Dan Skelton 9, Nigel Twiston-Davies 7, Gary Moore 4, Graeme McPherson 4, Sam Thomas 4, Harry Fry 3, Alan King 3, Nick Gifford 2, Warren Greatrex 2, Philip Hobbs 2, Charlie Longsdon 2, Jeremy Scott 2, Lucy Wadham 2, Keiran Burke 1, Chris Gordon 1, Alex Hales 1, Neil King 1, David Loughnane 1, Richard Philips 1, David Pipe 1, Oliver Signy 1, Colin Tizzard 1, Mark Walford 1, Harry Whittington 1.
No winners: Sean Curran, Stuart Edmunds, Johnny Farrelly, Sue Gardner, Nigel Hawke, Tom George, John Jenkins, Linda Jewell, Tom Lacey, Nick Lampard, Shaun Lycett, Anna Newton-Smith, Diana Shaw, Suzy Smith, Evan Williams, Kayley Woolacott.
BRIDGE OVER TO STAYING HURDLES
⭕ 3.20 Thurles A straggler of the Fortune Cookie early-bird experiment is Jessica Harrington’s Crosshill.
Crosshill travelled well in a big field when slamming next-time winner Vanillier on soft ground at Punchestown (2m 4f) in October.
But he didn’t cope so well with the heavy ground and drop back to 2m on the same course and fell in a Grade 1 at Naas.
He drops markedly in class today but has to give 7lb and more to recent winners who may be improving past him. All eight runners have won one or more of their last three starts.
Against Crosshill is the form of his stable. Jessica Harrington’s strike rate is a poor 7% for hurdlers this season and her current hurdles form is 00U0PP.
Willie Mullins’ Capodanno, getting half a stone from Crosshill, travelled well when winning his maiden the last day .
But even lower down the weights is Capilano Bridge, already a winner of an open handicap, and a course winner here over 2m.
Related to a Gold Cup hero down the dam’s side, and likely in his element here raised in trip. BETDAQ 6.6.
⭕ 3.40 Kempton Dr Sanderson won on his only run in a bumper for Stuart Crawford before joining Paul Nicholls. Three-time hurdle winner but has struggled over fences. Maybe this can be a confidence booster. BETDAQ 6.2.
⭕ 4.45 Kempton Before Midnight, 7.8 on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE won two out of three NHF races for Nicky Henderson in 2018, before being placed eight times (one a win) over hurdles and fences, switching in the summer to Sam Thomas.
⭕ 5.30 Newcastle While Daafr and Dutch Decoy have done well at this level, Tadleel stepped up to class 2 on turf and was twice within two lengths of the winner at York.
Offered at 5.7 on BETDAQ, Tadleel was a CD winner here at Newcastle in June and the Richard Fahey yard is currently 5-14, resurgent from a lean spell over the winter.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.20 Thurles (win 10)
BET 1.75pts win CAPILANO BRIDGE
3.40 Kempton (win 10)
BET 2pts win DR SANDERSON
4.45 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 1.5pts win BEFORE MIDNIGHT
5.30 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 2.2pts win TADLEEL
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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