DAQMAN: 10 WINNERS IN SIX DAYS: Now it’s 10 winners in six days for Daqman – all odds against – after Toonagh Warrior (WON 5-2) obliged at Wetherby yesterday. Full list in Wednesday’s column.
HOLD YOUR HORSES: Daqman finds there’s a big gap below the top spot and ‘no middle’ to the weights for the Newbury Gold Cup on Saturday so, without his usual stats, will leave his findings until the day.
NEWBURY CHECK: All three of today’s meetings passed inspections and go ahead but there is a 7.30 a.m. check on Newbury tomorrow
GOLD PUNTERS TURN TO SILVER
⭕ 2.50 Saturday, Newbury (Gold Cup) The early plunge horse, Stolen Silver, would end up being top-weight, should 12-stone Ahoy Senor, rated 169, drop out.
Ahoy Senor is perched almost a stone clear of Stolen Silver (157) and Midnight River (156), like a jackdaw on a chimney-pot.
Such avians are lovers of silver but the chances of Lucinda Russell’s Senor swooping down on the £142k winner’s prize is not catching on with punters, though he’s clearly the class horse.
Many Clouds (2014) won it off 151 and Native River (2016) off 155 until, in the last six years, the winner’s quality fell away to 147, 148, 149, 136, 140 and 146 last year.
And, in fact, rather like my report on the Cheltenham Gold Cup, recent winners of this 3m 2f chase seem to have had the stuffing knocked out of them by their grueling ride to victory.
In the last five years, their returns from races since their Newbury triumph amount to 1-32 and, for Ahoy Senor to hump round 12st, could be a serious blow to his future, win or lose.
All bar two of the 18 below Ahoy Senor carry less than 11st, with four horses out of the handicap. With no ‘middle’ to the handicap, this has negated most of the usual stats for the race.
⭕ 1.55 Saturday, Newcastle (Fighting Fifth) Odds-on punters who backed big-name flops Bravemansgame (twice), Shishkin and Galopin Des Champs will be wary of Constitution Hill in a race which is a ‘1-6 next best 5-1’ betting fiasco but some will not yet concede that it’s a one-horse farce.
Nicky Henderson, winner of nine Champion Hurdles, regards Constitution Hill as ‘up there with the best’ and the handicapper says he is on 175 because he can’t go up any higher!
Love Envoi (then 147) was only a length and a half behind dual champion hurdler Honeysuckle (159 that day), when they met in the Mares Hurdle in March.
Love Envoi drops back to 2m here, receiving 7lb from Constitution Hill, which revises their standing to 175-160, with stamina lying with the front-runner, Love Envoi.
You Wear It Well is unbeaten over 2m but not in company that takes her higher than 140. The same age as Constitution Hill, she was going chasing but has this throw of the dice to decide on her direction.
OUTLOOK IS ROSY
⭕ 2.20 Lingfield I am not sure a 7lb penalty is going to be enough to stop Heva Rose repeating her course and distance success of last week and she looks the nap of the day.
It’s no surprise to see Venetia Williams getting the grey mare out again quickly after she jumped well and scored with any amount in hand to win nine days ago.
She should prove too strong for Passing Well who shaped with plenty of promise on his chasing debut at Ascot but the concern is whether the slightly quicker ground is in his favour as both his wins over hurdles came on soft ground.
Invincible Nao finished last of six finishers on his chase debut and needs to find not only better form but better enthusiasm on what he showed that day.
THE HONEY TRAP
⭕ 2.55 Lingfield My statistical take on the form of the Skelton yard paid off yesterday when I took on even money shot The Village Way with my 5/2 winner Toonagh Warrior. Although, in the trainers defence, he also saddled 21 length winner Kourosh who justified short price favouritism in the maiden hurdle.
The big yards will always saddle winners – but they can still be below normal form and it’s easy to get fooled if you don’t take into account the number of runners they are sending out.
The Skeltons have the likely odds-on Betdaq Betting Exchange favourite here in Coco Mademoiselle who let supporters down at 4/6 last time out. She might well make amends but at the price not for me.
I can play Sweet Honey B for a place at MUCH bigger odds than the win on the favourite and that looks a better call.
A point winner at Bangor she was nibbled at in the market ahead of her bumper debut and ran with huge promise to take second to Sunset Marquesa. The winner wasn’t disgraced in Listed company at Cheltenham next time out and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world to saw Sweet Honey B run into a place in this company.
HE HAS HIS MEASURE
⭕ 3.10 Taunton Salted Away squandered what looked an easier opening at Fakenham last time out when he was sent off favourite and is readily (salted) opposable.
Imperial Measure has done better this season – winning two starts ago at Newton Abbot and running well in third at Exeter last time out.
Gyllen was attracting some morning market support. A four-time winner on the flat he is 0-11 over jumps but showed a little more on his first start for Kayley Woollcott at Exeter last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.20 Lingfield (win 10, nap)
BET 9.1pts win HEVA ROSE
2.55 Lingfield (win 20, place to win 10)
BET 2.3pts win and 6.6pts place SWEET HONEY B
3.10 Taunton (win 10)
BET 4.0pts win IMPERIAL MEASURE
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