SERIE A: The Ultra previews MONZA v JUVENTUS with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

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7.45pm Friday night football on Betdaq Betting Exchange comes from Serie A this week as Monza host Juventus. It could be a massive weekend for Juventus as a win would put them top of the table and then Inter Milan are away to Napoli on Sunday so they could stay there! Inter Milan and Juventus have built a little gap in the top of the table – Juventus sit in second, two points behind Inter Milan but have a four point cushion on AC Milan in third. The top two sides met last weekend and played out a 1-1 draw. Inter were the better side, but a draw wasn’t a massively unfair result.

Juventus haven’t been playing the best football in Serie A this season, but you have to give them big credit for grinding out so many results. They have struggled at times away from home – they are actually conceding more chances than they are creating away from home and you can understand why they aren’t odds on favourites here. They are still reasonably hot favourites though; they are trading 2.08 at the time of writing with Monza 4.1 and the draw is 3.55. Monza are actually creating a bigger average xG compared to Juventus, so this is going to be a very difficult evening for Juventus.

Monza’s average xG created is 1.45, while Juventus are creating an average of 1.4. Monza have definitely conceded more chances though, and this is where Juventus can possibly win the game. Juventus have an average xG conceded of just 1.2 while for Monza that’s 1.44. Despite that difference, the 2.08 on Juventus doesn’t make any appeal to me – I feel there away form is a massive worry. They have only created an average xG of 1.18 away from home this season, and although Monza do concede some chances that is definitely a worrying figure.

Monza have been more solid at home too; most of their issues at the back have come away from home. They have also been creating more chances at home too! There’s no doubt that Juventus have the better squad on paper but I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here. If anything, I would lean towards a Juventus lay at 2.08 but I prefer the goals market here. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.81 and I feel this is ten ticks too big. Juventus haven’t been firing in front of goal overall this season, and with Monza more solid at the back at home, Juventus will have grind very hard for a win here in my opinion. The sides have only met three times, but Under 2.5 goals has landed twice and the other game finished 2-1. This game screams a tight and cagey affair, and I’m very happy with Unders at the odds.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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