WINNING BANKER IN FIRST-DAY PROFIT: Daqman played maximum stakes on Provident Spirit (banker nap, WON 4-5) on the first day of the Newmarket Craven Meeting and made 13 points profit, thanks to Shifting Power (WON 13-8). He also had Munjaz (WON 11-8, if-lose saver not used).
NOW IT’S DAQMAN 12, PRICEWISE 0: Shifting Power took the score in Daqman’s challenge to Pricewise selections at 12-0 since the start of the Flat, and their overall winning bets to 51-12 from November 23 last year. They clash again in the 3.30 and 4.40 races at Newmarket today.
1.45 Newmarket The market has got this one right five times in 10 years but, whatever happens, don’t follow the winner afterwards: the last five successful in this have run a total of 57 times since, and won just three modest races.
Spirit Of Xian, from a yard which will have around 120 two-year-old winners this season, increased in value six-fold between foal and yearling prices.
Tarando quadrupled in value and has a very speedy pedigree. No Delusion was the most expensive yearling in the race by a very long way. Watch the market!
2.20 Newmarket (Wood Ditton Stakes) If you want horses to follow, this is your race: nine future winners came from the first eight home last season, and no fewer than 14 the year before.
True Story turned up out of the blue to impress himself on the Derby market yesterday; this could only happen here with Famous Kid, sole Epsom entry in the race.
But the stable in form is John Gosden’s and, of his three runners, Fallen In Line and Prince Of Stars are very well bred for a race like this. Watching brief.
2.55 Newmarket It’s all looked so easy in the five years of this race, with money pouring in for hot favourites. Result: all stuffed, all bar one failing even to reach the frame. But I’m going to defy that stat today.
The winners were trained by the usual suspects – Gosden, Hannon, Johnston – but they are joined this year by Aidan O’Brien, with his only runner at this two-day meeting.
In fact, Guineas and Derby entry Johan Strauss, given an initial outing at Leopardstown last week, is Ballydoyle’s first attack on an English prize this year for a yard just striking form, with three winners in the last week.
Will this Racing Post Trophy runner-up break the hoodoo on favourites in this race today? One likely danger, Sudden Wonder, as low as 20-1 for the Derby, is from a stable currently missing strike badly.
Charlie Appleby’s last two favourites and last four runners at 3-1 or less have all lost. Horses are being placed at a short price without winning.
Observational and Seagull Star (by Sea The Stars out of a Montjeu mare) have several big-time entries, including the Derby. Both their stables are winning races.
Johan Strauss is almost a stone clear of these on what we know, in a race Aidan O’Brien has tried before and failed.
But Together, his 15-8 favourite in 2011, hadn’t had a run, and – though only fifth in this – was narrowly beaten in the 1,000 Guineas in her very next race. So he’s aiming at this from his top drawer.
VERDICT: I’m assuming two standout maximum-stakes bets today – Johan Strauss (at 3.0 on BETDAQ this morning) is one of them – with one winner keeping me right, but two making it a very profitable day.
3.30 Newmarket (Abernant Stakes) I put the entire, Es Que Love, in my early-birds list because he’s won in April, first time in England, for the last two years. That was for Mark Johnston.
Clive Cox probably has the same schedule for this ‘thinker’ (perhaps for the very reason that he is an entire), knowing he has managed to ‘get beat’ 16 times after his Spring 2013 win, and 10 times after April in 2012.
The top-rated pair, Tropics and Aljamaaheer, both won second time of asking last season. Tropics has had a run back, but has to carry a Group-race penalty for Ascot in October.
He and Heaven’s Guest were a long way behind Dinkum Diamond at Doncaster but were being aimed at today’s race. The better ground should help them, and the word is that Tropics will be targeting the Diamond Jubilee this year.
This is a bit short for Aljamaaheer, who is no doubt being aimed at the Lockinge, in which he was placed last year before another fine effort, second in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.
Hamza also won his second race of last season. The Abbaye third ran a fine trial for this, with a good run in the Al Quoz sprint at Meydan, and has scored in April or May three years running.
VERDICT: The 4lb Hamza gets from Tropics could be decisive. He won here at the Guineas meeting last year but aims higher this season, with the Duke Of York on the Knavesmire (Group 2) as his next stop.
It will be interesting to see what Clive Cox can make of Es Que Love. When I put him in my early-birds list, I had no idea he would attempt the big leap back into the Pattern.
He failed his transition to Group racing at the backend of 2012, but his new yard has a knack with sprinters, and this race has produced shocks before now.
4.05 Newmarket (Craven Stakes) Toormore, one of the 2,000 Guineas market rivals to Kingman, has frightened off most of these. He’s 11lb clear of anything else in this depleted field on what we know.
The Craven has proved a poor Classic guide, including for Toormore’s stablemates, Trumpet Major and Toronado, who have set Team Hannon up for a hat-trick here, but were both only fourth in the 2,000.
Delegator (2009), who went on to finish second to Sea The Stars in the Guineas, was the best product of this race since Haafhd did the Craven-2,000 double in 2004.
The main threat to Toormore here is Be Ready, with Godolphin having produced a ‘live one’ for the Derby in True Story yesterday.
Maybe it’s a coincidence that Barley Mow, the horse Be Ready beat to break his maiden in a Listed in September, was nearly 14 lengths behind True Story yesterday, just in front of Somewhat, the colt that beat Be Ready on his debut at Newbury in August.
Coincidence with one, perhaps. But for the two to finish virtually alongside, putting down the form of Be Ready, is as good a collateral shot that we’ll get at this race, or any race come to that.
VERDICT: On what we know, confirmed by yesterday’s results, Be Ready has to improve a stone and Toormore stand still if Godolphin is to pull off a Classics-trial double in two days.
I’m on Johann Strauss to maximum stakes and I shall have the same bet on Toormore. One winner and I’m scarcely damaged. Two and I’m waltzing to Strauss and looking to more!
‘More’ could come in the shape of Just The Judge in the Earl of Sefton. She’s a big price for what she’s done, and pays for one banker should one lose.
It’s always difficult early season on the flat but my cover strategy paid off yesterday, so i’ll try this insurance idea today.
4.40 Newmarket (Earl Of Sefton Stakes) Despite small fields, favourites have had a stinking run, since punters got it right with an almighty plunge on a French raider seven years ago.
Fencing has struggled to get Group status and let me down when just failing to get up at Doncaster in a Listed on the soft, though John Gosden hinted then that he had today in mind and his stable has won this twice in five seasons.
French Navy is just in front of Fencing in the ratings; at least he can boast a couple of Group-3 wins. Danadana is a similar level but penalised for it. Mull Of Killough won last year and has been primed again but this looks stronger.
Just The Judge’s form tailed off in her second season, after her 1,000 Guineas second and Coronation Stakes third. But she goes extremely well fresh and has a handy fillies’ allowance.
VERDICT: Charles Hills must be looking forward to a good season with Just The Judge (4.8 on BETDAQ this morning), who started early and at the highest level last term. I find her underrated alongside these older animals.
5.10 Newmarket The big stables contain the mediocre as well as Classic contenders and, like the first race, recent winners of this have done ‘nothing’ afterwards.
In the last four years, they have managed only one low-grade AW success since. Sir Michael Stoute, who runs Executrix and Ramshackle, has won it three times in the decade, yet the pair are 16.0 and 18.5 respectively this morning on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except bankers)
BANKER: BET 20pts win JOHANN STRAUSS (2.55 Newmarket)
BET 5.5pts win HAMZA, and 1.5pts win and place ES QUE LOVE (3.30 Newmarket)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) TOORMORE (4.05 Newmarket)
BET 5pts win JUST THE JUDGE (4.40 Newmarket)
BET 1.3pts win and place (Outsiders Of The Day) EXECUTRIX and 1.1pts win and place RAMSHACKLE (5.10 Newmarket)
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