WHERE THE BIG WINNERS COME FROM: Four days and seven races of top two-year-old tests are not to be missed, while you spend your time on the Cambridgeshire and Arc de Triomphe form. There could be a legend waiting somewhere among them. Daqman provides the clues in advance.
BOOST FOR NEWMARKET NURSERY BET: One of Daqman’s tips yesterday, Chic Columbine (WON 100-30), gave a big boost to offers of 8.6 on BETDAQ this morning. It’s in the nursery on the opening day of Newmarket this afternoon.
A LEGEND WAITING SOMEWHERE
Two-year-old racing preview
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket today (Somerville Tattersall Stakes, 2yo, 7f) STATS Five out of the last seven winners have been drawn in stall 2. Charlie Appleby and William Buick, who have combined for two of them, now run Legend Of Time.
Their 2021 winner Modern Games went on to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and – the following season – the French 2,000 Guineas.
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket tomorrow (Rockfel Stakes, 2yo, 7f) STATS Three of the last five winners were drawn 1 or 2. Team Gosden, winners of two of the last six, have Spiritual as a probable tomorrow.
Their 2022 winner Commissioning went on to take the Fillies Mile but did not run as a three-year-old.
And be warned that the race had been an absolute dead-end before that. The nine winners from 2013 To 2021 never scored again, losing a total of 39 times.
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket Saturday (Royal Lodge Stakes 2yo 1m) STATS: Aidan O’Brien 2, Team Gosden 2. Eight winners out of 10 were out of stalls 1, 2, 3, 4. O’Brien has six left in at this stage.
The Foxes (2022) went on to win the Dante as a 3yo but the race hero was Roaring Lion (2017), who also won the Dante, and made four consecutive Group 1 strikes.
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket, Saturday (Cheveley Park Stakes 2yo 6f) STATS Aidan O’Brien has landed four winners in the last seven seasons, but the best of a weaker bunch in the decade, compared with its old popularity, was Andrew Balding’s Alcohol Free (2020), subsequently winner of the Fred Darling, Coronation Stakes, Sussex Stakes and July Cup.
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket, Saturday (Middle Park Stakes 2yo, 6f) STATS Aidan O’Brien has won it three times in seven years but could have done without the first of them, US Navy Flag (2017),who was headlined for a plethora of races, including the Guineas, even the Derby at one stage after adding the Dewhrst to his bag!
But the War Front colt would lose eight times after, including six Group 1 and, brought back to sprinting, win only the 2018 July Cup.
⭕ 1.15 Longchamp, Sunday (Jean-Luc Lagardere 2yo colts 1m) STATS Eight out of 9 at Longchamp won from stalls 1, 2, 3, 4. Andre Fabre 3-8, winning the French 2,000 Guineas the following year with Victor Ludorum (2019).
Sealiway (2020) won the Champion Stakes and Angel Bleu (2021) the Celebration Mile but winners were not plentiful.
⭕ 1.50 Longchamp, Sunday (Marcel Bousac, 1m 2yo fillies) The only Group 1 in France for two-year-old fillies; best of all the trials this weekend, having produced Allez France (1972), Triptych (1984), Midway Lady (1985), Miesque (1986), Salsabil (1989), Finsceal Beo (2006), Zarkava (2007) Found (2014) and Blue Rose Cen (2022).
STATS: Aidan O’Brien (2), Charlie Appleby (2) in the decade; the favourites all blown out since Aidan O’Brien’s short-priced double with Ballydoyle and Found in 2014-15.
IMPROVING BUDGIE TO FLY HOME
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket today (1m nursery) Stormy Waves has just 4lb with which to turn around an easy defeat by Blown Away at Chelmsford so it doesn’t look likely.
Blown Away enjoyed the step up to a mile but the value today is Granny Budgie, who has improved with every race and is expected to stay.
She gave away 3lb at Doncaster when third to Chic Columbine, Daqman’s tip when scoring decisively yesterday.
Lambert had won three out of four at a low level when he tried class 2; he didn’t like it that the surface had turned soft and much will depend today on whether the forecast showers get into the ground.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.5 Blown Away, 8.6 Granny Budgie
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (6f fillies handicap) Gale Force Maya won this in 2021, and landed five prizes, two of them for Listed races, last year but she hasn’t maintained that level of form this term, including when favourite at Pontefract in one of five losing starts.
‘Maya’ tries blinkers first time today, while Kinta – second in a Group 2 last year – adds a hood after wind surgery, highest rated of the three-year-olds.
Executive Decision has been on the premises at today’s level but had to resort to lower grades to get back to winning form on soft ground in August.
I prefer the Frankel filly Frankness who ran well in an Ascot handicap but showed the benefit of a rest when really getting hold of a race at Salisbury the last day and could go on from there. Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.0 taken.
THUNDERBOLT ON A NICE MARK
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (Somerville Tattersall Stakes, 2yo, 7f) See above.
It’s not beyond belief that the outsider Victory Shout can give stall 2 a sixth victory in eight seasons at a huge 36.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
By Frankel out of a Shamardal mare, he could yet ‘be anything’ after storming clear by nine lengths the last day over a previous five-lengths winner.
Otherwise it’s Gosden v O’Brien v Appleby, the usual triple-header at Group level. Eben Shaddad, Military and Legend Of Time all won green; the market may help you, if you want to choose between them.
⭕ 5.18 Newmarket (1m handicap) Three-year-olds dominate (five out of seven) and a low stall seems essential (gates 1, 2, 3, 4 have together bagged seven of the last nine winners).
Ranger Thunderbolt (out of 4) is an improver who tried and failed over a longer trip; he’s back to his winning distance here off a nice mark in the handicap. BETDAQ 8.0 taken this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.25 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win and place GRANNY BUDGIE
BET 4pts to win 10 BLOWN AWAY
3.00 Newmarket (win 15 nap)
BET 5pts win FRANKNESS
3.35 Newmarket (win 40 total)
BET 1pt win and place VICTORY SHOUT
5.18 Newmarket (win 20 total)
BET 2.2pts win and place RANGER THUNDERBOLT
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