NINE WINNING BETS THIS WEEK: Daqman has scored with a hot mix of nap, lay, six winners and a place in the first three days of the week. His wins yesterday came from Grandeur (WON 4-5) and the place return from rank-outsider Upward Trend (2nd 16-1).
BIG GUNS BACK TOMORROW: A modest start for the Cambridgeshire meeting today but look out tomorrow for the potential return of Daqman’s win-50 (Bull’s Eye) and win-100 (Ton-Up) bets, and the resumption of the challenge to Pricewise of the Racing Post, with the score at 101-38 to our man.
WHAT THE ECTOT! 50-1 OR NOT?
I had written him a paean of praise. Though I’m getting nearly three times as many wins as Pricewise since my challenge over nearly two seasons now – jumps and Flat – Pricewise seemed to have hooked a dream 50-1 ante-post bet in Ectot for the Arc. Credit where it’s due.
Yet, though Pricewise tipped Ectot before the colt’s success in the Prix Niel, the bet was only casually acknowledged as a postscript to that race. The Post avoided mention of 50-1.
Same again today. Jockey Gregory Benoist decides on Ectot over Avenir Certain as his Arc ride but no ‘mench’ of a tipping coup in embryo. I must admit I would have wanted headlines about the fantastic ‘overs’ (50-1 in to 5-1 in a place today), had I been the tipster concerned, particularly for a column that boasts about value.
But thereby hangs the tail of a tale. It is so rarely possible to get such huge odds on the morning of a race from the odd bookmaker crazy enough to offer them. He suddenly gets all coy.
Needless to say, the odds shrink even quicker if they are connected to a top tipster, Press or phone line.. unless you are with BETDAQ, where offers continue to be an exchange of opinion – with money put where the mouth is – and the odds in the orange don’t suddenly plummet as the layer runs for cover.
LEGER ON AN UPWARD CURVE
It’s a Classic decision. The great revival of the St Leger – thanks to courageous sponsorship and two superb winners, Leading Light and Kingston Hill – has received another boost with the news that Ladbrokes will continue to support the race.
The Leger, now 238 not out, seemed to be on a sticky wicket in the early years of the century, as breeders accented speed but Leading Light’s Leger and Gold Cup double has restored it to its pedestal, a Classic worthy of its name. Kingston Hill for 2015 gold?
‘MO’ BEST OF MODEST OPENING DAY
2.00 Newmarket Telescope’s success (2012) gives a distorted picture of the winners of this race. Other than the Stoute colt, they are really better viewed through a microscope, as small-time handicappers.
I put up Mohatem – Big Mo in the yard – for this race in my column on Tuesday, though he has more competition than I bargained for. I shall stick with it.
Since nearly 50% of today’s racing is about two-year-olds, there is no alternative but to get involved.
Chorus Of Lies, Kitten’s Red, Tawaasheeh and the Gosden pair, Secateur and Tempus Temporis are all well bred and should be thereabouts.
But today seems to hang on a maiden at Doncaster two weeks back when Mohatem stayed on strongly to finish just behind the fading Game Pie, with Secateur, three places back, also making ground at the business end.
2.35 Newmarket Al Rayyan made all to beat Azmaam but, while Azmaam franked the form in a BETDAQ race at Chester (slow run on soft), Al Rayyan faded when trying to make all at Newcastle.
Then the horse Azmaam had beaten at Chester finished 24-lengths last of four at Catterick, though there may have been something wrong that day.
But I can’t entertain this form until we see some sparkle from it, and I would hope that Black Granite isn’t good enough to win an HQ two-year-old race – albeit a handicap – in a visor.
After beating winners in a three-horse contest on the July Course, Prince Gagarin flopped when raised to the Pattern in the Acomb Stakes at York, and needs to bounce back, even though dropped down two rungs of the ladder.
Percy Alleline has kept a high profile but has looked one paced (will first-time blinkers wake him up?) and Landwade Lad doesn’t look up to this on the evidence so far.
That leaves Orlando Rogue, who improved with every race until given a summer break. His in-form Manton yard has chosen this race from four entries over the next three days, and he gets 12lb from the danger, Prince Gagarin.
3.10 Newmarket Hat-trick bidder Barwick has done well for a six-year-old, winning on both firm and heavy, often the sign of a good horse. At least he’s adaptable but he has to raise his game to a higher grade today, giving weight to eight that are half his years.
Right at the bottom, Der Meister got into all sorts of trouble at Salisbury in his own particular hat-trick bid, a rare bad day at the office for Oisin Murphy and David Probert takes over here. Anything could win this, which is why I need the value of 12.5.
3.40 Newmarket (Somerville Tattersall Stakes) Maftool (Racing Post Trophy), Markaz and Valley of Fire (both Middle Park) are the ones with fancy entries.
But be warned that the last five winners of this race have since mustered only one win (yes, one in total) on English soil among them. In other words the raising of this former Listed to Group-3 status now looks a sop to its eponymous Tattersalls’ director.
The race-planners must be hoping that it throws up something decent and redeems itself this time around. It certainly looks competitive, with six already rated between 93 and 102.
Maftool has tasted Pattern-race company, second in a Group 3. That was on AW but he had broken his maiden on turf at Pontefract, staying on both times (6f).
Mubtaghaa’s third in the Windsor Castle (5f) promised well for longer trips but he was outpaced in the July Stakes and had to drop in class at York to score, missing the Mill Reef Stakes.
It may be that he won at York because the favourite, Kool Kompany, didn’t run to his mark, but the runner-up, New Providence (receiving weight from the winner) has since taken a Group-3 at Salisbury.
Although his debut win was his only run up to that point, Mubtaghaa’s stablemate, Valley of Fire, finished third behind him at York in a big field that day and, if you back one Haggas horse, you have to back the other.
Markaz has had winners behind him in his races and the handicapper has given him 98 so he had to take this route, though I doubt whether he’s good enough.
Make It Up won only a four-horse affair at Goodwood, making all, and bossing this would be much more difficult, but the three behind that day were all winners.
If that’s the criterion, you must go with Azraff, who had four winners behind him when topweight in a nursery at Newcastle. He was giving 21lb to he third horse who took a 12-runner race next time: 7.2 on BETDAQ early mouse.
4.15 Newmarket (Jockey Club Rose Bowl) The struggle to make a convincing day of this continues, with only Times Up among past winners (in 2011) progressing to raise his game above this Listed level afterwards.
The race, formerly, the Fenwolf Stakes, has been given a fancy new name but the number of runners has crashed from the usual double figures.
Times Up ran well in the Lonsdale Cup but fluffed his lines in his target race, attempting a unique hat-trick in the Doncaster Cup.
He’s nothing to fear from the Shwaiman, who failed in first time blinkers at Goodwood, or Novirak (not won for two years), though Flying Officer has improved for steps up in trip. Absent since the Spring but goes well fresh
But the obvious main threat is Cesarewitch joint-favourite, Pallasator, fourth in he Ebor. There’s very little between Pallasator and Times Up on a line through Pale Mimosa.
In fact, the official handicapper, thinks Pallasator has overtaken his rival, rating him 111 to Times Up’s 108. That’s 4lb more than Aaim To Prosper’s mark when he won the Cesarewitch off 9st 10lb. Ouch! Not sure I’d want to risk a further weights hike here.
If I’m forced to choose in this race (ok boss, I will), I would take the once-a-year horse Flying Officer, assuming this is his target, whereas Times Up has missed his and Pallasator’s is the Cesarewitch.
4.50 Newmarket Punters usually get this right. With one exception in the last seven years, the winner has returned between 100-30 and 5-1 at SP.
If Extremity is to justify his market support in the Cambridgeshire, then surely Master Of The World, who beat him at York, must win here, particularly with trainer David Elsworth top of the in-form list for getting the most out of his runners.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points each)
BET 11pts win (nap) MOHATEM (2.00 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win ORLANDO ROGUE and 1pt win (stakes saver) PRINCE GAGARIN (2.35 Newmarket)
BET 1.7pts win and place DER MEISTER (3.10 Newmarket)
BET 3.2pts win AZRAFF (3.40 Newmarket)
BET 6.5pts win FLYING OFFICER (4.15 Newmarket)
BET 4.3pts win MASTER OF THE WORLD (5.55 Newmarket)
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