THE BANKER GOES 96 POINTS UP: Daqman made it three winning bankers out of four with Ever So Much (WON 4-9) as a maximum-stakes nap yesterday, following Al Kazeem (WON 8-11) and Leading Light (WON 2-5). His naps sequence is now 12113012122021 with his bankers on 96 points profit to a level stake.
13-2 WINNER IN GERMAN MILE: Daqman also named the one-two in Baden-Baden’s top German mile race of the season, won by Andrew Balding’s raider, Here Comes Now (WON 66-10), from Amaron (16-1 forecast with Ladbrokes).
THE DAQ KNOWS THE TIME OF DAY: Betdaq is known as a strong market indicator near the ‘off’ but Daqman learns the hard way that, in certain races, the early-mouse market is decisive 64% of the time. He calls it orange morning magic. It will prompt a new bet on Saturday.
BETDAQ ORANGE MORNING MAGIC
Money talks sooner than you think. I can reveal today the lesson of the year from BETDAQ early-mouse prices. And the evidence is in the Archives to this column.
A total of 17 times this season, I have selected the second favourite in races where two horses stood out from the field, with 7.0 or more bar the two. Selection time logged at 10.30 a.m. offers in the orange most days.
The results show that, in those 17 starts, the favourite won 11 times and the second favourite just twice. In nine of them I had covered the win bet on the second horse with a saver on the favourite.
The inference is that I should be backing the favourite (64% strike rate) in these particular races, with a saver on the second favourite where the rest of the field is strung out with the market washing.
There have been two examples this week. The first race was the one in which I tipped Too The Stars at Goodwood (Tuesday) over Soviet Courage, 14-1 bar two (at SP).
Soviet Courage was backed like ‘a cert’ in to 3-1 on favourite and, sure enough, won like a cert, by 13 lengths, drawing right away to score as he pleased.
Then yesterday Charming Thought and Kinematic were clear of their field at Lingfield in that order in the BETDAQ market. By noon, second-favourite Kinematic, whom I’d selected, was out to 8.0. Yet again, the writing was on the wall.
Like Soviet Courage, Charming Thought crashed in the betting, returning an SP of 4-11 with ‘correctional’ money nearer the ‘off’ for Kinematic (2nd 9-2). Charming Thought – driven clear – ‘won comfortably.’
Starting on Saturday, I will feature a 10-point special bet on these particular favourites, so that we can all follow them in their next 17 races!
HAWK TO SWOOP FOR HUGHES
It’s the age of a jockey elite. Since the start of the Flat, you could have had 370 winners, just by following Ryan Moore and Richard Hughes on the Flat and Tony McCoy over jumps.
But you would have lost 253 times your unit stake with equal bets on all 1,656 of their runners! So you still have to be selective, even if they win, as they do, with nearly 25% of their rides on average.
So one of my next BETDAQ market exercises will be to try to eliminate their ‘bad’ rides and sift the winner wheat from the loser chaff.
McCoy stands alone. His strike rate is phenomenal: 33% since April 27. You are only a tenner in the red from £1 level stakes on all 371 of his rides.
That is just incredible and, on any monetary or fiscal scale, in any business, represents an unheard-of return on outlay. Keeping £371 in a bank from April 27 would, in real terms, be worth less this morning.
Richard Hughes has the arena to himself today, riding at Salisbury. His batting averages say he’ll have one winner, maybe two.. or he could hit Ryan Moore’s title hopes for six!
Reason: he has four days of a Moore ban, starting today, in which to eliminate a 10-win deficit. His last two stints of four riding days each both earned him six wins.
But Hughes is stepping up the number of rides, as seven a Salisbury today suggests, and 12 probables Friday and nine Saturday confirms, switching from Haydock and Kempton to Haydock and Wolverhampton on consecutive days.
What’s the attraction of Salisbury over Haydock today? Well, the first six of today’s seven rides are for Richard Hannon, who has provided the bulk of his winners, particularly from two-year-old races, which make up the first five events on today’s card.
Today’s early-mouse BETDAQ-market recommendations are Tom Hark (2.10) and Marsh Hawk (4.20). Marsh Hawk didn’t so much swoop as glide home on his Newmarket debut, and a big field here will hold up her price (around 2-1 as I write).
This is the Dick Poole Fillies’ Stakes, a Group 3, and a second facet of the Hannon gem of a stable comes into play here. This is no ordinary juveniles race and the yard has strength in depth that its selected will be among the elite.
The royal runner, Touchline, is likely to improve loads here, and was big at 18.0 on BETDAQ. Her trainer, Michael Bell, had a poor start to the turf season but is in good heart now with 15 of his last 23 runners reaching the first five.
The Hannon-Hughes forecast favourite in the 3.45 race, Black Cherry, was leapvrogged in the morning exchanges by Fadhayyil, suggesting that Barry Hills’ filly will make light of her absence.
In fact, my man in the long grass tells me to nap this one, as a stand-out on the gallops with Group-1 entries which could put Barry back on the big-race map.
We need a flutter at a bigger price than these two-year-olds, and Haydock’s class-2 handicap(4.40) provides the potential for decent odds in a 1m 4f race, a trip which reduces the hard-luck stories.
Only three of the 15 declared have won at this level before. The most interesting is Latenightrequest, a course winner, who likes the cut in the ground.
Latenightrequest drops down from two tries in the Pattern at shorter trips and is unexposed over today’s distance: 16.0 on BETDAQ as I write. Kikonga has obvious claims but another three-year-old in the race that ‘could be anything’ is Lady Tyne, exchanging at 8.2.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 11.5pts win (nap) FADHAYYIL (3.45 Salisbury)
BET 10pts win MARSH HAWK and 1pt win and place TOUCHLINE (4.20 Salisbury)
BET 2.7pts win LADY TYNE, with 1.3pts win and place LATENIGHTREQUEST and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) KIKONGA (4.40 Haydock)
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