The 2014 NFL season kicks off this week and we’ve got it fully covered at BetdaqNFL. Be sure to check back with us in the coming days for in-depth previews of all sixteen Week 1 games. In the meantime, enjoy this team-by-team look at the NFC:
*ATS= against the spread
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
2013 Record/Rankings: 8-8 (9-7 ATS) Offense: 16th overall (24th rush, 14th pass) Defense: 32nd overall (27th rush, 30th pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 50/1
2014 Outlook: I’m high on Tony Romo. Elite quarterbacks can make up for holes elsewhere on the roster, and I do consider Romo elite (though I realize not everyone shares my opinion). That being said, there’s no reason to think the Dallas offense will be any better than it has been over the last couple of years (unless you’re a big Scott Linehan fan, I guess). And the defense… yikes.
Is this team going to be able to stop anybody? They had the league’s worst defense last year and they’ve lost DeMarcus Ware, Jason Hatcher, and Sean Lee and added Henry Melton. Does that sound like a recipe for success? If Romo stays healthy the Cowboys should be potent enough on offense to win a few games, but I won’t feel comfortable trusting them with my money unless I’m betting the Over.
New York Giants
2013 Record/Rankings: 7-9 (7-9 ATS) Offense: 28th overall (29th rush, 19th pass) Defense: 8th overall (14th rush, 10th pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 66/1
2014 Outlook: The Giants seem to be flying under the radar a bit as we approach the 2014 season, as newer, more ‘interesting’ players and teams (some in New York’s own division) are garnering all the headlines and dealing with big expectations. Remember, though, that while the Coughlin/Manning-led Giants may seem like old news, they’ve been proven long-term winners and have rebounded from bad seasons before. They have a veteran quarterback in place who has played at an elite level, a quality defense that upgraded its personnel in the offseason, above-average skill-position talent on offense, and a coaching staff that commands respect. A winning foundation is there.
As you can probably tell, I’m higher on the Giants than most this season. Even if they get off to a slow start, the soft back-end of their schedule should allow them to make a late playoff run. This team promises to be a good late-season value, and if you’re looking for a longshot Super Bowl bet, you could do worse.
Philadelphia Eagles
2013 Record/Rankings: 10-7 (8-9 ATS) Offense: 2nd overall (1st rush, 9th pass) Defense: 29th overall (10th rush, 32nd pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 22/1
2014 Outlook: Oddsmakers had Philadelphia accurately pegged in 2013, as evidenced by the team’s 8-8 record against the spread in the regular season. Many are expecting bigger and better things out of the Eagles this season, but I’d advise caution on that front. Bettors frequently get into trouble when they take things that have happened in the past and rely on them happening again in the future. For example: people see this year’s Eagles team and think they know what they’re going to get from, say, Nick Foles, because they saw what he did last year. Problem is, it doesn’t always work out that way. Foles is still inexperienced and opposing defenses now have plenty of film on him, so he’s in for a challenging season. Also, the line charged with protecting him had incredible injury luck in 2013, as no starter missed a game. Will that happen again? Unlikely. With high expectations, a young quarterback, and a leaky secondary, Philly seems poised for a letdown. Bettors beware.
Washington Redskins
2013 Record/Rankings: 3-13 (5-11 ATS) Offense: 9th overall (5th rush, 16th pass) Defense: 18th overall (17th rush, 20th pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 66/1
2014 Outlook: While I correctly predicted a disappointing year from the Redskins in 2013, I don’t think anyone could have anticipated it being as bad as it was— just 3 wins and a defense that surrendered nearly 30 points per game. I’m sure they’ll improve on that win total this season, but I still don’t think this is a team that bettors should regard as a “sleeper” that is worthy of investment.
For one, I’m not sure that the hiring of Jay Gruden is going to improve the offense. I thought the Shanahans did a nice job designing an offense that best suited the talent on hand, though the injury to RGIII was obviously more than they could overcome. Gruden’s work as the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati was less-than-inspiring, to say the least. And how are we supposed to have any faith in a defense that was atrocious last season and is returning the bulk of their personnel and coaching staff? Fading this team early is probably a wise move.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
2013 Record/Rankings: 8-8 (4-11-1 ATS) Offense: 8th overall (16th rush, 5th pass) Defense: 30th overall (32nd rush, 15th pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 33/1
2014 Outlook: Despite a high-scoring offense and several good wins, the Bears were a toxic team to back last season, covering only four times in 16 games. Their defense was the primary culprit, as bettors who wanted a piece of the exciting Chicago offense were constantly burned by the defense’s inability to hold leads in the good times or stop the bleeding when things were going poorly.
As we embark on the 2014 season, it must be asked: has anything changed? There’s plenty of “buzz” surrounding the Bears, with many predicting them to unseat Green Bay atop the North, but the optimism all centers around the offense. And while there’s plenty to like on that side of the ball, it’s certainly worrisome that so many relied-upon players on the sieve-like defense are aging veterans with documented durability issues. Are we, as bettors, really prepared to touch that stove again? Do we want to back Jay Cutler and the world’s worst defense? And remember: Cutler has been a losing bet ever since he came into the league. In eight professional seasons his teams have finished with a winning ‘ATS’ record just once. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…
Detroit Lions
2013 Record/Rankings: 7-9 (6-10 ATS) Offense: 6th overall (17th rush, 3rd pass) Defense: 16th overall (6th rush, 23rd pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 50/1
2014 Outlook: The Lions have cost me over the past couple of years— they just haven’t been as good as I thought they would be. When they’re playing well they can look as good as anybody, with Stafford and the uncoverable Calvin Johnson lighting up the scoreboard and the physical defensive front bullying the opposition, but those moments of brilliance have been marred by mistakes, erratic play, and coverage breakdowns which are as predictable as they are destructive.
Trust is a valuable commodity in the world of handicapping, and over the last two years it’s been difficult to find a less trustworthy team than the Lions. And this season, though they have a new coaching staff, some ominous signs remain. Are they really prepared to go into the season in this pass-happy modern NFL with Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis as their starting corners? And it’s not like they have a 1st-round rookie waiting in the wings… the situation feels like an impending disaster. Now, regardless of how bad their secondary is the Lions should be able to match many teams point-for-point, so betting on this team in the right spot against the right opponent may be a good idea. However, if you’re planning on riding Stafford and the Boys to untold profits and postseason glory, I’d make different plans.
Green Bay Packers
2013 Record/Rankings: 8-8-1 (7-9-1 ATS) Offense: 3rd overall (7th rush, 6th pass) Defense: 25th overall (25th rush, 24th pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 12/1
2014 Outlook: The Rodgers/McCarthy Packers have been solid gold for bettors over the past several years. In his eight seasons as Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy is a smooth 80-56-3 ATS, with last season being the first time his team failed to cover in more than half of their games. Of course, last year’s 7-9-1 ATS record can be directly attributed to Rodgers’ 7-game absence, a stretch in which the team went 1-6 against the number.
Why should we expect anything different in 2014? Green Bay’s high-scoring ways enable them to routinely cover big numbers, and public expectations should be relatively low for them this season after a down year in 2013 ( I said relatively). If reliability is what you seek, and not the thrill of moneyline underdogs and the like, then you should pay close attention to the Packers.
Minnesota Vikings
2013 Record/Rankings: 5-10-1 (9-7 ATS) Offense: 13th overall (8th rush, 23rd pass) Defense: 31st overall (16th rush, 31st pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 150/1
2014 Outlook: The Vikings were quietly a good bet towards the end of last season, covering in 5 of their final 6 games. I’m very curious to see what Norv Turner can do with an offense that features talents like Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson… I have a feeling they’ll be a top-10 unit despite the absence of a reliable quarterback. The defense, though, is a tremendous problem, which makes relying on the Vikes a dicey proposition.
Fortunately, though, they aren’t saddled with high expectations, so a sharp bettor may be able to pick and choose his spots with this team and find some value. They have a brutal 6-game stretch to open the season, so they may emerge at 1-5 or 0-6 and severely undervalued, with winnable games against Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Washington standing out as possible places to pounce.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
2013 Record/Rankings: 4-12 (7-9 ATS) Offense: 14th overall (32nd rush, 7th pass) Defense: 28th overall (31st rush, 21st pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 66/1
2014 Outlook: It seems like everybody is picking Atlanta to turn things around this year and rediscover their winning ways, but I’m not convinced that it’ll be so easy. Now, I do expect the Falcons to be significantly better than they were in 2013, when they managed just 4 wins, but they’re going to have problems on defense again and their offensive line is unreliable. Can this team do much better than .500? I have my doubts, but I think many people would quickly answer “yes” to that question, which is why I expect the Falcons to struggle a bit against the number.
I do anticipate some offensive fireworks and comfortable wins, but there will be plenty of weeks when Matt Ryan will have to produce those fireworks just to keep his team in the game. People love betting on good offenses and big-name quarterbacks, and Atlanta has both. However, this team had a ‘rotten from the inside’ feel to it last year, and I’m not sure the rot has been fully eradicated. Caution is advised.
Carolina Panthers
2013 Record/Rankings: 12-5 (9-7-1 ATS) Offense: 26th overall (11th rush, 29th pass) Defense: 2nd overall (2nd rush, 6th pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 50/1
2014 Outlook: Let’s get this out of the way up front: the Panthers are going to be worse than they were last year. There is no way— no way— they reach 12 wins again. I don’t really think that’s any great secret or bold prediction, though. Most observers expect Carolina to take a slight step back, and this expectation will be reflected in the lines. Get ready to hear the “we get no respect” refrain from Panthers fans over the first few weeks of the season… I’m already tired of it.
I do think problems on the offensive line and in the passing game will be too much for Carolina to overcome in 2014, but their defense has earned my respect to such a degree that I’m not too eager to start fading them right off the bat. I think I’ll see how the month of September plays out before I determine how to proceed with this team.
New Orleans Saints
2013 Record/Rankings: 12-6 (10-8 ATS) Offense: 4th overall (25th rush, 2nd pass) Defense: 4th overall (19th rush, 2nd pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 11/1
2014 Outlook: I’m bullish on the Saints in 2014, just as I was in 2013. And while they didn’t win the NFC last season, they probably would have if they had played a little bit better in December and secured home-field advantage, because nobody— with the possible exception of Seattle— is better than the Saints at home.
Of course, I’m not breaking any news to sharp bettors out there. The Saints have been an absolute money tree over the last few years in the Superdome, going 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games there despite being favored in 23 of those games. That, friends, is reliability. It’s a comforting pattern that repeats itself every season: 1. Saints play at home 2. Everyone knows they’re going to win 3. Oddsmakers set the lines accordingly 4. Saints cover anyway. We were singing this same tune prior to last season, and—poof!— the Saints covered in 7 of their 8 home games. This isn’t rocket science, folks. Don’t make it harder than it has to be.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013 Record/Rankings: 4-12 (6-10 ATS) Offense: 32nd overall (22nd rush, 32nd pass) Defense: 17th overall (15th rush, 17th pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 80/1
2014 Outlook: This team was pathetic in 2013, losing their first 8 games and finishing 6-10 against the spread. They also have a losing tradition that still resonates with some bettors and a quarterback situation that can objectively be called one of the league’s worst. People are not going to want to bet on this team. The lines, especially early, will reflect that. Remember: they zig, you zag.
The Bucs are going to surprise some people and they’ll finish with a winning record against the number. I really believe that. Lovie Smith is an excellent coach and he’ll be able to produce a top-notch defense with the considerable talent already in place. The offense has explosive potential if they can get adequate quarterback play, and with an unheralded guy like McCown under center the team could fly below the public’s radar for awhile even if they’re moderately successful. All signs point to the Bucs being a ‘buy’ team in 2014. Their Week 1 home game against a sure-to-be-overvalued Carolina team may be a good place to start.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
2013 Record/Rankings: 10-6 (10-5-1 ATS) Offense: 12th overall (23rd rush, 13th pass) Defense: 6th overall (14th rush, 14th pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 40/1
2014 Outlook: The Cardinals exceeded expectations last year and rewarded their backers with a 10-5-1 record against the spread. Expectations have been raised accordingly, but I have serious doubts as to whether this team will be able to follow up their success with another winning season. Much of my concern revolves around the middle of the defense, which was dealt a deathblow in May when Daryl Washington’s year-long suspension was announced. Being soft up the middle is especially problematic when you share a division with Seattle and San Francisco, the two best power-running teams in the league.
I do expect the offense to be improved, which should lead to a few wins, but I don’t think this is a team that bettors should be keying on. A tough early part of the schedule could lead to some inflated lines later in the season, though, so prospective Arizona backers who pick and choose their spots carefully could find success.
St. Louis Rams
2013 Record/Rankings: 7-9 (7-9 ATS) Offense: 30th overall (19th rush, 27th pass) Defense: 15th overall (9th rush, 19th pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 150/1
2014 Outlook: I’m a big Jeff Fisher fan and I was all over the Rams back in 2012, when they went 11-5 against the number. Fisher’s teams traditionally exceed expectations, but I’m having trouble getting excited about this year’s squad. I do expect the defense to be improved, but I have very little confidence in the Brian Schottenheimer-coached offense and Sam Bradford’s season-ending knee injury certainly didn’t help things. That being said, public expectations for this team are low, so I don’t necessarily think the Rams will be a bad bet on a weekly basis.
If you are high on St. Louis this season I recommend jumping on them early. Two of their first three games are at home and all three are against teams that missed the playoffs in 2013, so the Rams have a golden opportunity to get off to a good start, which could inflate their value with the betting public. If this happens, take your money and run— RUN!— and don’t look back until December, when the Rams will likely be sub-.500 with some winnable games ahead.
San Francisco 49ers
2013 Record/Rankings: 14-5 (12-6-1 ATS) Offense: 24th overall (3rd rush, 30th pass) Defense: 5th overall (4th rush, 7th pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 25/2
2014 Outlook: The Niners have been a great team to back under Jim Harbaugh, compiling a 34-19-3 record against the spread despite being favored in the majority of their games. This year, though, I’m not sure they’ll be quite as good as they have been, especially early in the year. The loss of players like NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Donte Whitner is significant, there’s just no getting around it. The secondary will be a liability this season unless a few players outperform expectations, and the schedule features several teams that will be able to exploit any vulnerabilities in the back end of the defense. Combine these issues with the public perception of the Niners as an elite team and I’m not sure the value will be there, especially over the first half of the season.
I still expect this team to contend for a playoff berth and they’ll probably be a great team to back in November and December (especially if they drop a few games early and get their Pro Bowl linebackers back), but I’m not as bullish on them as I have been in years past. Caution is advised.
Seattle Seahawks
2013 Record/Results: 16-3 (13-6 ATS) Offense: 18th overall (4th rush, 26th pass) Defense: 1st overall (7th rush, 1st pass)
BETDAQ Super Bowl odds: 11/2
2014 Outlook: Sharp bettors should always take an interest in the NFL’s best team, especially when that team is coached by Pete Carroll, whose 44-26-1 record against the spread over the past four years is unmatched leaguewide. Does Carroll actively attempt to cover when he can? No, I doubt he does. However, there’s something about his “seize the day and step on their throats” coaching style that is conducive to bigger-than-expected wins, which is why his teams have been moneymakers ever since he was running up the score at USC.
The Seahawks, it should be mentioned, are a smooth 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games despite being favored in 17 of those games. You may not want to back Seattle at home, and that’s fine. But take my advice, please: DON’T bet against them when they’re at home. Save your money and, if you must, fade them on the road. Better yet, don’t fade them at all. This is a great team, and savvy bettors hitch their wagons to great teams. Sometimes the boring play is the right play.
