DAQMAN’S SECRETS OF BETTING: IN WHICH YOU WIN WHEN YOU LOSE: When Daqman was on his lays spree, he was ‘staggered’ that short-priced horses at the Cheltenham Festival didn’t just lose: 13 of his consecutive 16 hits were unplaced or fell. It’s the second section of Part 7 (lays) in his Secrets of Betting. He offers the confidence booster: take on the crowd; they cannot win in the long run.
BE BRAVE: TAKE ON THE CROWD!
Be smart but be brave. When something hyped – or even already a racing rock star – is odds on yet has conditions totally against, then you must move in and take him on.
He is value just as if a 5-1 chance is offered at 10-1 against. Only this time you want him to lose, and the crowd is against you. That takes nerve and confidence.
Just be assured that the crowd cannot win in the long run because, if they are on the side of the obvious, they are on the side of the favourite, and the favourite simply does not win enough times. Not even the very best of champions can win all the time..
🐎 Arkle ever lose? Yes, in his first race of the 1966-7 season, he was beaten favourite by Stalbridge Colonist, conceding 35lb in the Ladbrokes Trophy.
🐎 Golden Horn? Yes, he was beaten in the 2015 York International at 4-9 favourite when the rain came down. That was also the downfall of Enable, one of the best race mares ever.
🐎 Enable Yes, she was second at 1-2 favourite, her speed and stamina ebbing on very soft ground in the 2019 Arc. Here are some big-race favourites I remember hitting:
🐎 Yeats (unplaced 7-10 favourite, Longchamp): Yeats had been only third in this the previous year and faced Prix Gladiateur winner Kasbah Bliss on home ground and with deep conditions against him: eight of Yeats’ previous nine wins had been on days with ‘firm’ in the going report.
🐎 Darjina (2nd 11-10 favourite, Longchamp): Nine out of 10 winners of this had been three-year-olds and she looked vulnerable after several times placed without winning in big races.
🐎 Sizing Europe (2nd 7-4 favourite, Punchestown): The trainer, Henry De Bromhead, said openly before this big race that connections were looking to Sizing Europe for only ‘a promising run we can build on’ after injury.
🐎 Askar Tau (4th 7-2 favourite) and 🐎 Mamlook (3rd 6-1 drifted to 10-1), both in the Newmarket Cesarewitch: Mamlook’s trainer David Pipe had had 30 straight losers in the previous fortnight, with only one reaching the frame; and the stable itself had stopped supporting its own runners.
Three of the first 13 of those 30 had started favourite, but nothing of theirs has been seriously backed since. Three-year-olds had a poor record in the race since the 1970s and Askar Tau also had a poor draw.
13 OF 16 LAYS WERE ‘NOWHERE’
The staggering truth. By 2010, the Daqman column had landed 400 win lays in 524 attempts (76% strike rate) with stakes adjusted to the level of confidence, netting 1,943 points profit (see Daqman Archive).
What staggered me – and I’ve never really found a reasonable explanation – is that my short-priced Cheltenham Festival lays didn’t just ‘get beat’, 13 in the sequence of 16 didn’t even reach the frame.
The unbeaten win lays spanned three seasons of Cheltenham, so averaged about five festival races each year, though some favourites at some of the meetings were just that bit more tempting than others.
2008 SIZING EUROPE unplaced 2-1
2008 NOLAND 3rd 7-4
2008 TWIST MAGIC unplaced 5-1
2008 ORNAIS unplaced 9-2
2008 AIGLE D’OR unplaced 4-1
2008 ROBIN DU BOIS unplaced 7-1
2009 COUSIN VINNY unplaced 9-4
2009 TATENEN fell 4-1
2009 CAN’T BUY TIME 4th 4-1
2009 CLARIFIED fell 17-2
2009 DON’T PUSH IT unplaced 8-1
2009 JUVEIGNEUR unplaced 7-2
2010 CAPTAIN CEE BEE unplaced 5-2
2010 BENSALEM fell 6-1
2010 LONG RUN 2nd 11-4
2010 ALFIE SHERRIN unplaced 11-4
Here are more examples from my notebook, with reasons why, including an extra edge to look forward to when the Flat begins: the bias in the draw. The last five were big prices but they were big fields.
FORM NOT WORKED OUT: Featherweight (2nd 3-1 favourite, Lingfield): The form of her Newmarket race hadn’t worked out and, if she had been any good, she would have been in a nursery after her three maidens.
LACKED EXPERIENCE: Lamanver Homerun (unplaced 7-4 favourite, Wincanton): Always a warning when a trainer describes his runner as ‘a fun horse.’ Had not jumped a fence in public.
SLOW COACH: Charles Street (2nd evens favourite, Wincanton): His third run in a week; it was raining and the going changed, all his wins having been on good ground but all in poor time, the last two around 28 seconds slow.
TAIL-SWISHER: Woolfall Treasure (2nd 11-10 favourite, Haydock): A penalty hadn’t been carried to victory in this race for 10 years and the favourite was a tail-swisher, with blinkers added in the desperate hope that he’d forget his win on the last day.
BADLY DRAWN: Cheveton (unplaced 6-1, Doncaster): In stall five, 9lb higher than for his last win; not a single winner at Doncaster the day before was drawn below eight and, in the sprint, four of the first five home had come from stall 13 or higher.
Sir Gerry (3rd 7-2, Ascot): Straight-course results the previous day showed that a high draw was needed yet they backed this one from stall one! Gimme, gimme.
Enticing (unplaced 13-2, Newbury): The low five stalls had made no show in the World Trophy and Enticing was in stall one, preferred firmish ground and was beaten in the same race the previous year.
JOCKEY TIP: Recession Proof (3rd 9-2, Wolverhampton): Up a grade after being hiked 7lb; Jamie Spencer had deserted him to get on Aladdin’s Lamp.
BADLY HANDICAPPED: Young Mick (unplaced 9-2, Ascot): Loved Ascot but hadn’t won for two years and his form read: last of eight, last of eight, 8th of 10, last of eight, 7th of 10. Yet he was still 9lb higher than for any handicap win and he preferred a firm surface.
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