33-1 BET BEATEN A NECK: It was a case of so near and yet so far for Daqman yesterday. He launched his day with Fascino Rustico (WON 11-8), a facile 9-lengths winner at Newcastle, but would rather have had the neck by which Basil Berry (2nd 33-1) was beaten at Chelmsford. At least he landed the place bet.
SANDOWN LAST-CHANCE SALOON: Today Daqman looks at some of the final Cheltenham trials at Sandown and Punchestown this weekend, checking out whether they usually produce festival winners and which horses are likely to emerge from them. It’s last-chance saloon for some contenders.
BRISTOL SHIP-SHAPE FOR CHELTENHAM
The road to Cheltenham remains open. If you are still looking for an ante-post bet for the four-day festival in March, or just more guidance to the form, here’s how the weekend racing might put you in the picture:
12.40 Sandown Saturday Detroit City (2006) won this on the way to his Triumph Hurdle victory at the festival in March. Two others were placed at Cheltenham from the last seven winners.
Victory on Saturday would do Bristol De Mai’s Triumph Hurdle chances no harm. He beat Karezak six lengths before that one ran Peace And Co to three lengths in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham last week.
Bristol de Mai’s alternative is to go in at the deep end and take on the older horses in the Contenders Hurdle.
1.15 Sandown Saturday (Contenders Hurdle) Celestial Halo, winner of this Listed in 2009, was narrowly pipped by Punjabi in the Champion Hurdle that followed.
But the season after that, Binocular took this in his sequence of seven wins out of 10, which included that year’s championship.
Binocular was rated 163 when he won the Contenders but there is only one horse within a stone of that which has accepted on Saturday, Garde La Victoire, though he may wait to tackle the big Newbury hurdle next Saturday.
2.25 Sandown Saturday (Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase) This race has a big reputation as a kingmaker but gambles on Punchestowns (2010), beaten favourikte in the RSA, and Captain Conan (2013) in the Jewson, were both lost.
Medermit, Silverburn and For Non Stop all reached the first four at Cheltenham without winning. The Scilly Isles has been won by seven favourites out of eight.
Likely hotpot on Saturday would be Josses Hill if he took this in on the way to the Arkle Splash Of Ginge also has a high rating.
3.10 Punchestown Sunday (Tied Cottage Chase) Sizing Europe won this two years running (2012-13) but each time found one two good, finishing second in consecutive Champion Chases at Cheltenham.
He was unsuccessfully trying to follow in the hoofprints of Moscow Flyer, winner of this in 2003 and 2005, going on to take the Cheltenham championship on both occasions. In between, Big Zeb (2010 winner of this) also pulled off the big double.
QUEEN CAN LAND TOWCESTER BUMPER
TOWCESTER A nice six race card this afternoon and I go for a selection in the second and last races.
At 2.20, Take The Mick ran out a facile winner last time out at Warwick seven days ago. The Venitia Williams trained gelding won by 14 lengths under Aidan Coleman and despite getting an eight pound rise, he should be able to win again with Liam Tredwell in the plate this time.
His main opposition looks like it will come from Newton Thistle and Herecomesthehollow. Newtown Thistle won by a monstrous 54 lengths two runs back over course and distance but was unable to follow up next time out when upped in the Handicap. He’s been raised further since and runs today off 94 which may prove difficult.
Herecomesthehollow is lightly raced and without a win so far. He’s been dropping steadily in the Handicap between Hurdles and Fences and comes here with a decent shout but may need to show a good bit more improvement to beat the jolly.
In the finale, there are a couple of interesting newcomers, notably from the Mick Channon and Alan King yard’s. Both of their look well related and should be ready for the task at hand today.
Briery Queen though has had two runs with one of those in a Listed Bumper at Cheltenham in November when finishing fourth behind the 144 rated Bitofapuzzle. Albeit a 66/1 shot on that occasion, she had shown some promise previously when third on her debut at Towcester and I think the newcomers will need to be quite decent to be able to overturn her.
WINCANTON A competitive Mares Novice Hurdle at 2.40 gives my first selection on a seven race card, with Champion Jockey AP McCoy on the likely favourite, Dolores Delightful.
The McCoy factor really looks to be the main reason why this one is the favourite, although she is highly rated at 120, she is a seven race maiden so far. She has run some nice races but over much shorter trips and I have a reservation about how much of the two miles and six furlong that she will get. Not a lot I suspect.
With that in mind, the one that looks the value bet in the race is Miss Sophieorse. She has won twice under rules in the UK, in a Bumper and a Novice Hurdle and she was a Point to Point winner in Ireland prior to that. Last time out, she got the better of Meetmeatthemoon, a 122 rated Hurdler who had two previous wins under her belt and there is every possibility that Miss Sophierose will progress beyond that mark of 122. She appears to be the one to beat in this.
In the following race, a very open looking Handicap Chase over two and a half miles and I am going to take a chance here with Bincombe. He lost a shoe last time out and was pulled up at Lingfield but he does not look like the easiest of customers. He ran out when travelling well over course and distance a few runs back but put that behind him when outbattling Dineur to win at Aintree.
Although 122 looks high enough for him at ratings, he acts well on soft ground and if putting his best foot forward, he can go very close again today.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 8pts win (Nap) TAKE THE MICK (2.20 Towcester)
BET 6pts win MISS SOPHIEROSE (2.40 Wincanton)
BET 2pts win and place BINCOMBE (3.10 Wincanton)
BET 6pts win BRIERY QUEEN (4.20 Towcester)
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