2016 JUMPS HORSES TO FOLLOW: Daqman has chosen his Final XI for the Cheltenham Festival and beyond to the Grand National meeting at Aintree and the Punchestown festival (newcomers to the list are given with reasons for selection). As these horses run, they will be backed to 20 points level stakes from Saturday through until April. Target 300 points profit
NEXT WEEK: He revises his ante-post bets. Then follows his Cheltenham Betting Strategy and, in the week before the festival, has day-by-day stats and facts analysis for each day of the meeting seven days in advance. TOMORROW AND SATURDAY: The big Newbury meeting.
DAQMAN GOES TO WAR WITH HIS FINAL XI
See how they run! Since before Christmas, I’ve regularly listed candidates for my Players XI as I’ve built a hot list for the Cheltenham festival and beyond, following their form in their preps, marking them for strength and discarding the failures.
Here is my final list, based on the trials season which peters out at Newbury on Saturday. In my analysis of the betting markets, there are hot hitters plus one or two curved balls for the layers.
BRISTOL DE MAI (8/10)
JLT Novices’ Chase (Trainer: N Twiston-Davies)
This is the success story of my Cheltenham ante-post bets for this column so far. More next week.
After being 5.8 from 9.4 on BETDAQ, generally 5-1 with bookmakers, ‘Bristol’ is the new JLT favourite at around 7-2 with bookmakers and 4.5 on the exchange, after the injury to Kilultagh Vic.
CAUSE OF CAUSES (Hidden horse)
Aintree Grand National (G Elliott)
Now 32.0 on BETDAQ to not much liquidity; also not easy to back with bookies if inquiries are made, and 20-1 in places this week; but settled back to 33-1.
The 2015 NH Chase (4m) winner at Cheltenham was hunted round in last year’s National, running through tired horses on the final circuit.
CLOUDY TOO (7/10)
Aintree Grand National (S Smith)
He’s 12-1 with bookmakers for the Haydock Park Grand National Trial on February 20, and will probably be the first runner for this list.
DON COSSACK (8/10)
Cheltenham Gold Cup (W Mullins)
Now 4.9 BETDAQ; 6-1 and 7-1 bookmakers. Most of those at the front of the market for the Gold Cup have had their ups and downs, including this one, but he’s hardening all the time now, and I suggest you read again the result of the Punchestown Gold Cup last April: 1 Don Cossack, 2 Djakadam, 3 Road To Riches, 4 Cue Card; 7 lengths; 6.5 lengths.
DOUVAN (9/10)
Arkle Chase (W Mullins)
Now 1.45 from 1.57 on BETDAQ with good liquidity; generally 1-2 with bookmakers. Unbeaten in eight starts since June, 2014.
FAUGHEEN (10/10)
Champion Hurdle (W Mullins)
Remains at 1.45 with BETDAQ; generally 1-3 with bookmakers for back-to-back championships
ROI DES FRANCS (Hidden horse)
National Hunt Chase (W Mullins)
Now 8.4 BETDAQ; 6-1 and 7-1 with bookmakers. It seems strange to call this one a ‘hidden horse’, when he’s going for a hat-trick when he runs at Cheltenham, and is fairly short in the market.
But, with all the hullabaloo about Willie Mullins hot-pots, there is an element of his being overlooked; also, there is such a hot contest for the RSA Chase, that the National Hunt Chase could be denuded: Blaklion, Seeyouatmidnight, Black Hercules and Outlander are all in the market exchanges for both races.
Black Hercules, favourite for the NH Chase, has been four-day declared for Navan on Sunday, with Mullins saying that he needs ‘more match practice’ before Cheltenham.
If he wins, he could very easily go for the RSA; if he loses, he might well drop off the front of the NH Chase market. Either way, that would put Roi Des Francs in the NH Chase spotlight.
Mullins said after Roi Des Francs won at Fairyhouse in December: ‘The first thing that comes to mind for Roi Des Francs is the NH Chase.
‘He jumps and stays and wants a fence but races really powerfully. He liked the heavy at Fairyhouse but will get as far as he likes on better ground.’ Has won again since at Naas.
THISTLECRACK (10/10)
World Hurdle (C Tizzard)
With 2.3 offers on BETDAQ, 5-4 with bookmakers. Rapid improver, strolled home at Cheltenham in the Cleeve Hurdle.
UN DE SCEAUX (9/10)
Champion Chase (W Mullins)
Now at 1.84 BETDAQ; around 4-6 with the bookies. Another Mullins monster.
VROUM VROUM MAG (8/10)
Mares Hurdle (W Mullins)
Has eased from 8.4 to 10.0 on BETDAQ for the World Hurdle, and likely to swerve Thistlecrack. As low as 3-1 in a place with bookies for the Mares Hurdle, which makes her BETDAQ offers of 9.4 look huge!
Another possibility is the Ryanair Chase; 8.0 on BETDAQ but 4-1 in a place with bookmakers.
YANWORTH (9/10)
Neptune Hurdle (A King)
Another that BETDAQ punters have got stuck into: 2.1 from 3.0 at best now; evens or a shade of odds on with the bookies.
OUTSIDE CHANCES AT 18.0, 16.0 AND 12.0
1.25 and 2.30 Huntingdon A 16.0 BETDAQ offer this morning, Giveitachance is 2-2 over CD at Huntingdon on good-to-soft ground, his stable landing a gamble on the last day with another staying type.
The sounder surface also suits Market Option and Flemensbay, who could return to his front-running role.
David Pipe also landed the odds with his last runner and Still Together was an early punt in this handicap hurdle, one of two he’s sent up from the West Country.
The other one, Vazaro Delaffayette (2.30), was also a talking horse in the BETDAQ orange this morning, and I backed the pair stop at a winner, assuming that one of them might win. I always add a small-stakes double just in case both score.
1.55 Huntingdon Nicky Henderson spoils this for backers, running three, with one of them, Champagne Express, who will like the ground, the nearest rival to Paul Nicholls’ soft-surface scorer Baoulet Delaroque at the front of the BETDAQ market early mouse.
The enigma is Totalize from a stable that’s had 19 horses in the first four in the last fortnight. Three of his last four hurdles runs have been at graded level, and he might be worth a bob each way, stepped up in trip at 12.0. he could enliven your Daq Multiples.
2.20 and 4.05 Doncaster The hub of your Multiples must be Supreme Novices’ Hurdle entry Winter Escape (2.20), with jockey Barry Geraghty 5-8 for Alan King in four seasons.
Pine Creek (4.05), a Listed hurdles winner, ran an excellent second over fenceson today’s course to Graded player Volnay De Thaix and rates the nap.
3.40 Huntingdon Mick Easterby bids to break a long losing spell at Huntingdon, going to war off current form figures of 133133412, jumps and Flat, before Ganbei ran earlier on this card.
Classinaglass is, indeed, a glass horse, with only 10 runs under Rules at the age of nine, but the ground is in his favour against a motley crew, most of whom pulled up on the last day. I took 5.2.
4.15 Huntingdon Sir Mark Prescott, who is in top form on the Flat with five winners out of six, has had just one bumper winner from four attempts in the last three seasons.
His four-year-old filly, Deauville Dame, ran well on the last day, and looked worth a pound at 18.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, receiving 10lb and more, weight for age.
DAQMAN TIPS (staked 1 to 9)
BET 1pt win and place GIVEITACHANCE (1.25 Huntingdon)
BET 5pts win STILL TOGETHER (1.25 Huntingdon), if lose 8pts win VAZARO DELAFFEYETTE (2.30 Huntingdon) and 1pt win double the two.
BET 1.5pts win and place TOTALIZE (1.55 Huntingdon)
BET 6pts win CLASSINAGLASS (2.40 Huntingdon)
BET 9pts win (nap) PINE CREEK (4.05 Doncaster)
BET 1pt win and place DEAUVILLE DAME (4.15 Huntingdon)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca Totalize (1.55 Huntingdon), Classinaglass (2.40 Huntingdon), Winter Escape (2.20 Doncaster), Pine Creek (4.05 Doncaster)
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