DAQMAN HITS SIX WINNERS IN A ROW: Daqman has landed SIX consecutive winners as he followed up an 8-1 success on Monday and a treble on Tuesday with two on the bounce yesterday. All told, he’s landed six singles, two naps – one a banker – three doubles and a treble. His tipping returns in the unbeaten week of profit are: 2201111112
154 POINTS PROFIT IN THREE DAYS: The profits in the three consecutive winning days have totted up to 154 points at SP – and much more at BETDAQ offers – from:
WON 8-1 CONTRE TOUS (Monday)
WON 4-7 FATTSOTA (Tuesday banker nap)
WON 11-4 HATTONS HILL
WON 5-2 ROYAL RUBY
WON 13-8 HINT OF GREY (Wednesday nap)
WON 8-11 HAJJAM
2,000 GUINEAS ‘SEE HOW THEY WON’: Daqman now has two days of stats and facts to help him pick the winners of the 2,000 Guineas and, tomorrow, the Lincoln Handicap, with his ABC guide.
26.0 DEFENSE AGAINST CHURCHILL
Thanks Pricewise; you’re a pal! My arch-rival on the Racing Post has talked up a horse in the 2,000 Guineas and played down the chances of arguably the best three-year-old in Europe, so giving us a price.
Past results in the form book tell you right away that – Cockney Rebel (2007) apart – 2,000 Guineas winners in the decade have come from a select bunch of trials.
The Prix Lagardere is currently on a hat-trick. A winner (2015) and a third (2016) in that race, Gleneagles and Galileo Gold, have taken the last two opening Classics at Newmarket.
And the colt to continue the sequence is the 2016 Lagardere winner, National Defense, who was as low as 14-1 with bookmakers and 20.0 on BETDAQ, but this morning is 26.0 in the exchange’s ante-post orange.
The reason for the slide is that Pricewise has tipped Al Wukair in the race. In doing so, Andre Fabre (Al Wukair) told the Racing Post tipping team that he’d go to Newmarket whereas Criquette Head-Maarek (National Defense) said she had a ‘slight preference’ for the French Guineas.
Their decisions will be made after next week’s Prix Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte (transferred from Longchamp), in which National Defense is sure to start favourite over Fabre’s Listed winner.
A little birdie tells me – or is it the less than chirrupy Criquette – that Mme Head-Maarek doesn’t want to have Press pressure up to the Djebel, so is less than forthcoming.
But can you see National Defense running in a lower-echelon Poulains if he disposes of Al Wukair next week? Not on your life! The one they’re all frightened of, of course, is Churchill. Here’s what the stats say:
Top English trials are Royal Ascot’s Coventry Stakes (which produced Henrythenavigator and Dawn Approach) and the Greenham (Frankel and Night of Thunder), and Ireland brings success to the table mainly from the National Stakes (Gleneagles and Dawn Approach).
The best BETDAQ offers about those successful in those turnkey tests in Europe as two-year-olds are:
Caravaggio (Coventry Stakes) 10.0 on BETDAQ 5-1 in places with bookmakers
Churchill (National Stakes winner) 2.5 on BETDAQ
National Defense (Lagardere winner) 25.0 on BETDAQ
So 2.5 Churchill, but 25.0 National Defense, yet the Racing Post Ratings have Churchill on 135, National Defense 133.
As well as the Prix Djebel, the Greenham Stakes at Newbury is the best guide from trials in the same year. Another race to look out for.
But it certainly can’t hurt the wallet much, with the stats on our side, to dabble in the ante-post waters with 26.0 (to win 100) about National Defense before the Djebel. Paddling up to the knees and splashing out over my head come later.
SIZING UP ROBBIE’S NEW JOB
2.00 and 3.35 Taunton Alan Potts new retained rider Robbie Power is straight into the silks at Taunton today before the ink is dry on his contract.
He’ll need to revitalize the Colin Tizzard fortunes with Sizing At Midnight (2.00) and Sizing Granite (3.35)
Incredibly, Tizzard hasn’t had a winner from 52 runners in 32 days. I say ‘incredibly’ because it is still unbelievable that there was no Thistlecraft in the Gold Cup, no Finian’s Oscar in the Neptune after such a build-up to the festival.
Robbie, who will be hoping the yard’s luck changes before Aintree next week, has cheekpieces first time to help on Sizing Granite in the best race of the day at Taunton (class 3)
Tizzard also has Valhalla in the race but both his runners have ‘pulled up’ at the end of their form figures.
However, Sizing Granite is a ‘hidden horse’ (9.4 on BETDAQ) in that the parking tickets in the P0P of his three runs this season are both down to Cheltenham in much higher class.
He didn’t do too badly in between here at Taunton and the Aintree win in his salad says suggests he’s a flat-track horse. As well as being down in grade, he’s dropped 22lb for those three efforts this season.
Mr Kit Kat (holds Alcock And Brown) was behind Sizing Granite at Taunton, and the big danger is Paul Nicholls’ CD winner Amour De Nuit, the 3.05 BETDAQ favourite, as I write.
AZURE CAN FLY HOME IN BLINKERS
2.50 Warwick One stable which has suddenly tuned the corner after a stinking run is that of Alan King, with three winners from his last eight starters, and he’s leading trainer at Warwick.
Kingy has a poor record in bumpers (1-20) but is 25% in the real racing over obstacles here, and could get Giveaway Glance back in the winner’s enclosure, nicely placed in the handicap for this.
She looked to be travelling like a hat-trick winner after scoring at Doncaster and Catterick but fell three out at Exeter, yet is 8.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
Magie Du Ma and Evening Hush, down the field in the Triumph Hurdle, have to give the selection more than a stone.
Deauville Crystal was morning favourite, trying to duck under the handicapper’s radar, with just a 7lb penalty for success only five days ago.
3.25 Warwick Charlie Longsdon is 63% (5-8) in handicap chases on this course and I’m glad to see he’s overcome a slight deafness regarding Azuure Fly, the nap at offers of 4.3.
He’s turned him into a right bridesmaid (form figures 2322233) disregarding cries of ‘put the blinkers on,’ but at last he’s heard, and the blinds are on today as Azure Fly’s winning rider, Aidan Coleman, returns to his saddle.
5.45 Chelmsford John Gosden has a 25% strike rate with first-timers in handicaps and the step up in trip should suit Lady Hester (9.2 BETDAQ offers), who has the best rider in the race.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20, unless stated)
BET 2.5pts win and place GIVEAWAY GLANCE (2.50 Warwick)
BET 7pts win (nap) AZURE FLY (3.25 Warwick)
BET 2.5pts win and place SIZING GRANITE and 4pts win (stakes saver) AMOUR DE NUIT (3.35 Taunton)
BET 2.5pts win and place LADY HESTER (5.45 Chelmsford)
ANTE-POST TON–UP BET (win 100): 4pts win NATIONAL DEFENSE (2,000 Guineas, Newmarket)
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