IN PROFIT AGAIN AS 9.8 BETDAQ BET IS NEVER HEADED: Daqman’s nap, Fairfield Ferrata (2nd 11-4), didn’t wake up until too late at Hexham yesterday but our man landed a runaway winner in a chase later on the programme, with a 9.8 BETDAQ bet on Casimir Du Clos, who made all the running, so giving him a profit on the day for the second day running.
Daqman yesterday: Profit 8.00
WON 11-2 CASIMIR DU CLOS (from 9.8 BETDAQ)
Daqman Tuesday: Profit 3.40
WON 5-6 LORD OF KERAK (nap)
DAQMAN STARTS HIS CHRISTMAS BIG-RACE PREVIEWS: Daqman will turn the spotlight on a host of Christmas races with previews in the next two weeks. Here’s a sample of what the stats throw up at this early stage.
CYRNAME SCINTILLATING JUMPER
🎄 3.00 Kempton, Boxing Day (King George V1 Chase) STATS: Six out of eight winners aged seven and eight. Eight out of 10 winners rated 168 to 174. Paul Nicholls 5, Nicky Henderson 3, Colin Tizzard 2.
If you relate the ante-post list to the stats, you get these three out on top in ratings order-:
176 Cyrname Two out of two at Kempton as a novice (Wayward Lad and Pendil novices’ chases), Cyrname then won three chases in a row at Ascot last autumn, including defeat of Altior and culminating in defeat by Clan Des Obeaux in his second King George last Christmas.
Looked better than ever on his return, with a scintillating jumping round in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby.
171 Clan Des Obeaux King George winner for the last two years, finishing 21 lengths up on Cyrname last Boxing Day, but had wind surgery after weakening at the last in the Gold Cup and was always held by the winner in Bristol De Mai’s favourite race, the Lancashire Chase last month.
171 Lostintranslation The heavy ground of the Lancashire Chase had him in trouble and he lost touch before two out. He had won the trace the previous year on good to soft, which was also key t o his excellent Gold Cup third (beat en only a length and a half).
Last night: 3.15 each of two Clan Des Obeaux and Cyrname, 9.9 Lostintranslation on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
PUMP UP THE CHRISTMAS VOLUME
🎄 1.50 Leopardstown, December 28 (Christmas Hurdle) STATS: All winners in the decade aged seven or younger. All bar one rated 154 to 162. Gordon Elliott 4, Willie Mullins 3.
If you relate the ante-post list to the stats, you get these three out on top in ratings order-:
158 Bapaume Not the biggest for a chaser and just one win in a five-race jumping career, with his rating 8-10lb short of his hurdles mark.
Interesting outsider now as former winner of the La Barka hurdle at Auteuil, third to Apple’s Jade in this Christmas Hurdle when only five.
Runner-up in the Galmoy last year to Presenting Percy, third in the Ladbrokes Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown 2019.
156 Ronald Pump Won the novice handicap hurdle final at Fairyhouse in the Spring of 2019 and second in the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March.
Back to big-time form when second to Honeysuckle in the Hatton’s Grace late last month, half a length down at the line giving the odds-on winner 7lb.
156 Thomas Darby Runner-up in he 2019 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, and not out of the frame since, scoring on heavy ground at Ascot in January.
PATROCLUS HORSE OF THE FUTURE
⭕ 12.52 Warwick The £150,000 buy, Patroclus, is given the responsibility of landing a Nicky Henderson hat-trick in this race, straight in at a trip.
‘Powerful, striking and with speed,’ says the trainer, who is mentally mapping out a chasing career already for a horse he ‘absolutely loves.’ Shade of odds against on BETDAQ this morning.
⭕ 1.27 Warwick Patroclus is reckoned to have a touch of class. So, too, Zambella, whose chasing career was launched at Listed level.
That proved no problem, as she turned over the odds-on favourite, Stormy Ireland, a Grade-3 hurdler who had run second first time over fences to Eldorado Allen, who followed up with a Grade-2 success at Cheltenham.
Zambella has a penalty here but, in fact, is unexposed, going up in trip. Front-runner Legends Gold will make it a test for her but she and Midnightreferendum have to bounce back after falling the last day.
Venetia Williams is on 18 consecutive losers, including four beaten favourites, so you’d need a bigger price about her Pink Legend.
⭕ 2.47 Taunton A race of shocks the last two seasons, including Here’s Herbie’s 2018 strike at 14-1 for Sue Gardner. May need this race after a dismal return at Wincanton, and the stable doesn’t have a great strike rate on its local track.
Mount Windsor is up in trip for the hat-trick bid. His claimer’s allowance should keep him in the thick of it.
And, if you are one of those punters who are able to ‘read’ Jonjo O’Neill , maybe When You’re Ready can also improve at the trip.
But I shall follow the known tactics of Paul Nicholls, whose bumper winner, Confirmation Bias, was just beaten here at Taunton over the minimum hurdles trip.
The Presenting gelding now steps up for his handicap debut to a trip which saw his relatives excel. He is related to winners at 2m 4f, 2m 6f, even 3m 2f. Today could launch a prosperous period for Confirmation Bias.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.52 Warwick (win 10, nap)
BET 9pts win PATROCLUS
1.27 Warwick (win 10)
BET 4.5pts win ZAMBELLA
2.47 Taunton (win 20)
BET 5pts win CONFIRMATION BIAS
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