SLOW GOING GIVES DAQMAN A 12-1 BLACK EYE: Daqman lost out at Nottingham in the wink of an eye yesterday as his bid for a week of winners every day failed by such as head, neck and threeparts of a length at 9-4, 5-1, 4-1 and 12-1 (Wade’s Magic) in a sequence of four bets four places (2233) including Wink Of An Eye. Good ground was forecast and returned but every race at Nottingham was slow run, three of them by more than six seconds.
SNOWFALL IS A FOURTH ACE IN THE ARC PACK: The Arc De Triomphe gets closer and Daqman today deals a fourth ace from the pack – Snowfall – in his horse-by-horse analysis of Sunday’s championship race at Longchamp. Who will be his fifth and final ace tomorrow?
LONGCHAMP TOO SOFT FOR TEONA
🇫🇷 ARC UPDATE Because of the forecast soft ground, Teona, who beat Snowfall in the Prix Vermeille, has not been declared for Sunday’s Arc de Triomphe, leaving 15 runners.
The rain helps Trueshan in the French Gold Cup (Prix du Cadran) and he’s closed down Stradivarius at the front of the markets.
SNOWFALL 3yo b f. Rating: 120. Five wins from 12 starts (3014000-11112) for earnings of £831,896 (Smith, Magnier, Tabor – Aidan O’Brien – Ryan Moore)
Breeding By Deep Impact out of a Galileo mare who is a sister to Arc winner Found. Sire won seven Japanese Grade 1 (including a Kinen won this year by Chrono Genesis).
Big-race form Snowfall won three consecutive Oaks (Epsom, Irish and Yorkshire) – as did Enable on her way to the 2017 Arc – but was below par and beaten in a muddling Prix Vermeille the last day by a filly she herself had beaten in the Musidora and the Epsom Oaks.
Stats Fillies and mares have won the Arc eight times in 13 years with Zarkava (2008), Danedream (2011), Solemia (2012), Treve (2013, 2014), Found (2016) and Enable (2017, 2018).
Seven winners of the Vermeille have won the Arc; five in the same year including Three Troikas (1979), Zarkava (2008), and Treve (2013). Solemia (2012) had finished only third in the Vermeille.
Style Won at Epsom and York from the rear, travelling strongly at Epsom until asked to pick up inside the final quarter; quickened away impressively by 16 lengths, a record winning distance for the race.
Going Has won on officially good, good to yielding, good to soft (0-2 on soft). Aidan O’Brien says she has no problem with slow ground, as she showed at Epsom.
Trainerform O’Brien has had a quiet season by his standards, with the exception of St Mark’s Basilica but his fillies won the 1,000 Guineas (Mother Earth) and Snowfall her three Oaks, though none of the runners-up in that triple have won a Group race this season.
Jockey Ryan Moore has won the Arc twice, including on Found, sister to Snowfall’s dam.
CHASER SET TO BE PUNTERS’ FRIEND
⭕ 2.00 Warwick Hopefully we’ll get a fair a price about Friend Or Foe who, now that he’s switched to fences, could progress and surpass what he did over hurdles.
Why we get a price is because his first chase was a three-horse affair in which only two finished. But he looks a real chasing type and trainer Paul Nicholls uses Warwick well for educational purposes (strike rate 27%). After 2-3 on Monday, this is Paul’s only runner until Sunday.
Beyond The Clouds has not maintained his progress over fences and cheekpieces first time are added to the tongue-tie.
Swinton Hurdle runner despite only a maiden-hurdle success, Any News is related on the dam’s side to chase ace Trabolgan, and is one to watch after a break.
Novice-hurdle winner Lord Baddesley is a buzzy sort who will need to concentrate over the bigger obstacles. BETDAQ value: 2.71 Friend Or Foe.
⭕ 2.35 Warwick Jonjo O’Neill’s form coming into this meeting is 142131312 and La Domaniale, a hurdles winner for Gabriel Leenders in France, was well backed in the J P McManus colours on her handicap debut in the Spring.
The stable has won this race with a five-year-old before, and the mare could now get it together after a few niggling problems.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 5.1 La Domaniale
MOORE HAS ROLE AS THE HUNTER
⭕ 3.32 Salisbury It’s soft at Salisbury, and Tolstoy has won with cut in the ground. But his subsequent defeats on firm in the Group-2 Coventry Stakes and July Stakes were not just down to an overfacing in class and ground considerations; otherwise why have him gelded?
Ribhi is a Salisbury CD winner but the placed horses have been well beaten since. Ribhi then ran fifth in a Doncaster Listed, denied a clear run.
Witch Hunter, by the same sire as St Mark’s Basilica, has some nothing entries but was held just a neck on softish ground at Newbury, favourite first time out. Should be straighter and Ryan Moore is booked.
Amber Dew was a losing favourite three races in a row but benefitted from a break and, with headgear dispensed with, she stormed home six lengths over the CD here at Salisbury three weeks back.
BETDAQ value 6.1 Witch Hunter
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Warwick (win 15 nap)
BET 8.75pts win FRIEND OR FOE
2.35 Warwick (win 20)
BET 5pts win LA DOMANIALE
3.32 Salisbury (win 20)
BET 4pts win WITCH HUNTER
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
