8.0 WINNER HAD NEVER RACED BEFORE: Daqman’s gunning for value continued yesterday with 8.0 about gambled-on debutante Silent Glance and a Lays Logic warning-off of a beaten 8-11 favourite. Destinado gave him back-to-back naps and three out of five. The last five days:
Wednesday: profit on the day 24.15
WON 7-2 SILENT GLANCE (8.0 taken on BETDAQ)
WON 1-1 DESTINADO (nap)
WON 9-4 LOADED GUN (4.1 taken on BETDAQ)
(Same race Lays Logic: Gallopin On, 2nd 8-11 favourite)
Tuesday: profit on the day 28.30
WON 11-2 GAYE LEGACY
WON 9-4 KING VIKTOR (nap)
Monday
WON 11-8 SEEFIN (3.0 taken on BETDAQ)
Sunday
WON 6-4 NURSE SUSAN (4.2 taken on BETDAQ)
Saturday
WON 6-1 FANTASTIC FOX (8.1 taken on BETDAQ)
WON 11-8 OH SO GRAND (nap)
BULL’S–EYE BET IN THE THYESTES: Daqman has a nine-horse short-list for the Thyestes Chase in Ireland today. As usual in big races, he tries to win 50 points with a bull’s-eye bet.
HE COULD WIN BY A STREET
⭕ 2.50 Gowran Park (Thyestes Chase) STATS: The race has had heydays this century, firstly in 2004-5 when Hedgehunter and Nubersixvalverde went on to win the Aintree Grand National.
Then in 2014-15, it was won by On His Own, subsequent Bobbyjo winner beaten a short head in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and by Djakadam, twice Gold Cup runner–up.
TRAINERS: Willie Mullins (9), Gordon Elliott (2), Martin Brassil, Henry De Bromhead.
JOCKEYS: Paul Townend (3), Jack Kennedy (2), Darragh O’Keeffe. RATINGS (10 years) 137, 138, 139, 142, 145 (2), 147, 149, 152, 154.
AGE in 20 years: 6 and 7 (4), 8 (5), 9 (4), 10 (3), 11 (3). WEIGHT: 10.9lb or less (11), 11st 4lb to 11st 10lb (7).
1: STREET VALUE Won the Porterstown Chase (3m 5f) at Fairyhouse in December (Frontal Assault 4th) and looks the pick of the lightweights.
2: SHANTREUSE Plot horse at Navan but ran into another one well handicapped. Graded placed.
3: ANGELS DAWN The 2023 Kim Muir winner is rematched with Gordon Elliott’s Dunboyne, who was 13 lengths fourth that day and is now 10lb better off. Favourite and might have won the Grand National trial at Punchestown last February (won by Coko Beach) but three lengths down when unseated rider two out.
4: DUNBOYNE, narrowly beaten in last year’s Thyestes, was also fourth in the Troytown (also won by Coko Beach), with Fakir d’Alene third (Gevrey pulled up).
FAKIR D’ALENE has never won beyond 2m 5f or so but was fourth in the 2022 Kim Muir, and was brought down when behind in both the Irish Grand National and the PP Chase at Leopardstown last month.
GLENGOULY Doesn’t really have the form in the book but seemingly Paul Townend’s pick. Ran well under a big weight at Limerick; unexposed.
BRONN Struck into first run back this year and cheekpieces first time today. Third in both the 2023 Brown Advisory and in the Aintree equivalent, the Mildmay.
ESPANITO BELLO Has a touch of class; not fluent or would have been better than fifth in this race last year. Visor (first time) should help and will enjoy a hectic pace.
GEVREY Munster National winner and Irish Grand National runner-up last year but pulled up twice including the last day off new high mark.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 7.1 Dunboyne, 9.4 Shantreuse, 9.8 Glengouly, 10.5 Angels Dawn, 11.5 Fakir d’Alene, 14.5 Street Value, 15.5 Bronn, 38 Espanito Bello, 46 Gevrey
FOXES SHOULD BE FAVOURITE
⭕ 1.00 Southwell (Winter Derby Trial) Dante winner, fifth in the Derby. You’d expect The Foxes to be a very short price here against a Listed winner who was stone last at Epsom.
But such is the lure of the Charlie Appleby outfit that the now-gelded flop Military Order heads the BETDAQ market, with top-rated The Foxes tempting value at 3.75.
LEGEND IS IN THE PINK..
⭕ 3.10 Huntingdon (Listed mares’ chase) Gavin Cromwell and Venetia Williams, who have won this for the last two seasons, have the clear top-rated in Brides Hill and Pink Legend (8lb between them) and would be giving much more weight away all round, if this were a handicap.
Pink Legend was Venetia’s winner in 2022 off 133 when she made the maths look all wrong, beating an odds-on 143-rated, who was giving her just 2lb.
The trainer was ‘asked in’ but could offer no explanation for the improved form. In fact, this is one Pink lady they now drink to up and down the country, quite a Legend in Listed company, having won three more since at Exeter, Perth and Newbury, not to mention a mares’ race at Cheltenham.
Brides Hill came over for the Perth race but fell at the first as 11-10 favourite, with Pink Legend (made all; went clear run-in) the easy 2-1 winner.
Returning in the autumn, Brides Hill ratcheted her rating up nine notches with back-to-back wins at Listowel and Fairyhouse. Is she now poised for revenge over the Pink lady?
The market says so: 1.76 Brides Hill and 6.0 Pink Legend. I shall take the Pink legend price and save on Brides Hill when her odds are corrected to evens or better.
FORTUNATE BUT CAPABLE
★ NAP OF THE DAY (⭕ 3.00 Wetherby) Daqman goes for a naps hat-trick today with, appropriately, Fortunate Man, bought by J P McManus for €210,000 after the Soldier Of Fortune gelding won his maiden Point.
Fortunate Man was impressive the last day and earned his penalty for this by beating a Nicky Henderson favourite (at Newbury!)
We saw in my Supreme Novices preview just how many top-line novices J P has this year. There’s a place for them all, if his many trainers get them right.
Asta La Pasta has scored in lower grade at the country tracks and yet has a double penalty, so hardly value at 2.16 this morning, with Fortunate Man 2.52.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.00 Southwell (win 10)
BET 3.75pts win THE FOXES
2.50 Gowran Park (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 3.7pts win STREET VALUE
BET 2.4pts to win 20 SHANTREUSE
BET 2.25pts to win 20 ANGELS DAWN
3.00 Wetherby (win 12, nap)
BET 7.5pts win FORTUNATE MAN
3.10 Huntingdon (win 10)
BET 2pts win PINK LEGEND
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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